Thurs - AP R1 & Late PK4

[Bogey]

Originally Posted by Scav

Also, in the 4th race, while I think Rivelli's horse is the one to beat, these 9f races at Arlington are often jock races, and while I don't really want to say this, Ferrer often rides these kind of races well. There is ZERO pace in this race, and Ferrer is going to push early and get that rail, and slow it down. This horse isn't going to go 48'2 and 111'4 this time, I am thinking more like 50 and 114. He gets those fractions, he might be hard to catch coming down the lane.

Ok, I can't believe I touted a Tomillo horse

I strongly agree. Choke em did it with Bachicho a couple of Fridays ago at a nice price.

Thanks Gales for the heads up.

[miraja2]

All I know is that I'm not playing much today, and skipping tomorrow altogether.
I'm gearing up for what I hope will be a big Saturday (one of my favorite days of the meet). I just started going over the PPs, and I think the Springfield looks like an especially good betting race this year.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by miraja2

All I know is that I'm not playing much today, and skipping tomorrow altogether.
I'm gearing up for what I hope will be a big Saturday (one of my favorite days of the meet). I just started going over the PPs, and I think the Springfield looks like an especially good betting race this year.

Dynamic Wayne is the only horse that can win that race and Gentleman Chester is going to get a perfect trip

[dellinger63]

Taylor Mad is in Sat but so is Pretty Jenny

[Scav]

Originally Posted by dellinger63

Taylor Mad is in Sat but so is Pretty Jenny

Yeah I saw that, unfortunetly I think she has zero shot at winning. Hopefully I am wrong. I like Block's horse alot in that race.

He might win 5 races on Saturday.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by Scav

Dynamic Wayne is the only horse that can win that race

I'm not so sure about that. Of course, I bet against him a few weeks ago here as well and he beat me, but I'm still just not sold sold on this horse.
To me, the Granitz/Razo colt, and especially the Williamson/Emigh colt look very live there. The Williamson colt will probably be in the 8/1 - 10/1 range because he didn't do anything in his last and his one try on the poly was poor, but I have to assume that he just didn't like the yielding turf and he got caught wide at Turfway. His April race at Hawthorne seems more impressive than any race Dynamic Wayne has ever run, but his odds could easily be four times that one on the board. I think he's the value.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by miraja2

I'm not so sure about that. Of course, I bet against him a few weeks ago here as well and he beat me, but I'm still just not sold sold on this horse.
To me, the Granitz/Razo colt, and especially the Williamson/Emigh colt look very live there. The Williamson colt will probably be in the 8/1 - 10/1 range because he didn't do anything in his last and his one try on the poly was poor, but I have to assume that he just didn't like the yielding turf and he got caught wide at Turfway. His April race at Hawthorne seems more impressive than any race Dynamic Wayne has ever run, but his odds could easily be four times that one on the board. I think he's the value.

if the speed stays he is going to get a great 'poly' trip, meaning he will be 5w and just swoop by. That horse WON last time while he was virtually stopped at the screen, for him to come back and win, that is monsterous. I was right next to Bennett when it happened too, he couldn't believe the horse won. The thing that concerns me is the fact that the horse worked 34 flat two days ago, that is borderline insane, my guess is that it had to be raining that day.....

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by Scav

if the speed stays he is going to get a great 'poly' trip, meaning he will be 5w and just swoop by. That horse WON last time while he was virtually stopped at the screen, for him to come back and win, that is monsterous. I was right next to Bennett when it happened too, he couldn't believe the horse won. The thing that concerns me is the fact that the horse worked 34 flat two days ago, that is borderline insane, my guess is that it had to be raining that day.....

Rain or no rain, that work is a little crazy. And speaking of working fast, the day before D. Wayne's work, the horse just inside of him (River Bear) worked 4f in 46.4 (1/57).

You are probably right about D. Wayne. His last race WAS pretty impressive, and Bennett is having a hell of a year. I guess the board will determine exactly what I do here, but if he is in the neighborhood of 2/1, I'm still going to look elsewhere. I'm just not convinced he will turn out to be much better than Mr. Mischief or Best Buddy going 8f on the poly, and they figure to be much longer odds.

[Scav]

Late P4
5: 1,2,4
6: 6,8
7: 4,6,7,8
8: 11

[Scav]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Rain or no rain, that work is a little crazy. And speaking of working fast, the day before D. Wayne's work, the horse just inside of him (River Bear) worked 4f in 46.4 (1/57).

You are probably right about D. Wayne. His last race WAS pretty impressive, and Bennett is having a hell of a year. I guess the board will determine exactly what I do here, but if he is in the neighborhood of 2/1, I'm still going to look elsewhere. I'm just not convinced he will turn out to be much better than Mr. Mischief or Best Buddy going 8f on the poly, and they figure to be much longer odds.

Mr. Mischief will not be much longer after running 3rd in that stakes race...

[Scav]

Originally Posted by Bogey

I strongly agree. Choke em did it with Bachicho a couple of Fridays ago at a nice price.

Thanks Gales for the heads up.

I just watched that replay and I have to say that I am even more impressed now, the 7 pressed this horse the whole time, in what was a very quick 8.5 race. What people have failed to realize in the times for these 8.5 that the first 1/4 is run into a turn, thus a little bit slower, so 25'3 is about average.