belmont weds full card

[the_fat_man]

Guys

Here's the chart for the race. Notice how everything running FORWARDLY between the 2nd and 3rd calls ran backwards from that point on; expect LUCK. Notice how the last fraction is FASTER than the previous one. Pigs don't accelerate the last split.

Now, while the horses the 9 had been running with were moving INTO the pace, the 9 was behind horses and backing up. She thus DIDN'T RUN at the key point of the race. Notice how the only horses running late are those that were BEHIND this group; and how the race fell apart late. Notice how the 9 pass ALL tiring horses. I contend that had the 9 been allowed to run with these horses, she runs better than the rest but doesn't beat LUCK. LUCK was behind her early, was rushed INTO the pace, opened up much too soon for a horse that doesn't like to win, was not roused in the stretch as she might've been, and still lost by a bob to a horse that got a fortuitous trip. She's not a hanger; she's just not a very brave horse that continually gets bad trips and is put into poor position.

Think about what I'm saying; look at the chart. Trust me, I realize it's counterintuitive but it's the correct assessment. It happens quite a bit in races.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

She is the definition of a hanger. I realize that as a trip handicapper you get stuck on these horses that seemingly always get bad trips. I get it, I have a few of my own. But, the reality sometimes is the horse just doesn't want to win. You can't excuse opening up midstretch and getting caught by a filly that had to be stopped. Luck will eventually win, but she has had so many chances and always falls short.

true...imo

[the_fat_man]

The subtleties of trip handicapping.