Kent's Ride: Stride-by-stride

[The Bid]

Eric

With horses being sent to the shed so quickly its almost better for history that Big Brown did'nt win. Had he won the Triple Crown the comparisions to Seattle Slew would have been cut in dry in some peoples minds. That would have been extremely unfair to the true immortals of the game.

Hopefully the humiliation suffered after connections shot their mouths off for 3 weeks leading into the Belmont, will be too much for the egomaniacs involved to swollow. If that is the case they will almost certainly keep the horse in training and pursue Curlin.

If Mr Clay bought in 10PCT at 5 million his investment has been chopped in half. Right now I cannot imagine Big Brown standing for more than 30k. Mr Clay is essentially in on that horse standing at well over 30k. He needs to do more on the track to make the math work.

[ELA]

Originally Posted by The Bid

Eric

With horses being sent to the shed so quickly its almost better for history that Big Brown did'nt win. Had he won the Triple Crown the comparisions to Seattle Slew would have been cut in dry in some peoples minds. That would have been extremely unfair to the true immortals of the game.

Hopefully the humiliation suffered after connections shot their mouths off for 3 weeks leading into the Belmont, will be too much for the egomaniacs involved to swollow. If that is the case they will almost certainly keep the horse in training and pursue Curlin.

If Mr Clay bought in 10PCT at 5 million his investment has been chopped in half. Right now I cannot imagine Big Brown standing for more than 30k. Mr Clay is essentially in on that horse standing at well over 30k. He needs to do more on the track to make the math work.

I agree. I wasn't disagreeing with you, but I was with the comments you were refuting. I also very much agree with the history aspect. However, had he won -- the comparisons to Seattle Slew might have been cut and dry in "some peoples minds" -- BUT not with commercial breeders, people who breed to race, etc. and those who would actually be breeding to the horse. Breeders, farms, etc. have often said "I don't care what people think . . . I only care what breeders, my clients, buyers and mare owners think"

Humilation aside, at this stage, in my mind this has nothing to do with persuing Curlin. All the nonsese, hypotheticals, and what if's? OK. If Big Brown would have won, gone on to win the Travers, kept going, etc., stepped up to take on older horses, or not and looked to do it in the BC Classic (which I don't believe Curlin is committed to just yet -- assuming he comes back fine, healthy, etc.) -- then it becomes about Curlin. Yeah, OK. But, as you said, it ain't that now, LOL.

The stud deal aspect. Well, it's interesting how the math played out before the race, and after. I very clearly understand the structure, implications, etc. of the deal (not the specifics on this one, but I understand how the economics work out, the formulaic strucuture, etc.) I posted about this on the other thread. I don't want to get into details, but, whatever % the farm bought -- there wasn't very strong indications of interest to buy shares before the Belmont. I think many of the breeders -- the real candidates to buy shares -- wanted to wait. If the horse won, kept going, outperformed his pedigree, foot problems, and everything else, then the individual warrants the deal. If not, the jury was and is still out. He wins, I think the stud fee would have come close to justifying the share price -- but my opinion doesn't count. I'm not a buyer of a share, or a season buyer, breeder, etc. And more importating, even if the justification was close -- the real buyers weren't there.

If he retires now -- IMO, they'll stand him for more than $30k. I think they'll make deals, but you are of course absolutely correct, the math doesn't work at 30 or 75 for that matter. At this point, it's all moot. We will soon see, or at least I hope so.

Eric

[The Bid]

Really, you think they could stand him right now for more than 30k? If hes not a top tier stallion its going to be hard to be in that 50-75 range first year. I just cant imagine a group lining up to go to a Boundry for that kind of money. Maybe Im wrong

Hopefully it shakes out where we get to enjoy him running and he gets a shot at redemption. He has a lot of catching up to do to be mentioned in the same company we heard whispers of prior to the Belmont

[ELA]

Originally Posted by The Bid

Really, you think they could stand him right now for more than 30k? If hes not a top tier stallion its going to be hard to be in that 50-75 range first year. I just cant imagine a group lining up to go to a Boundry for that kind of money. Maybe Im wrong

Hopefully it shakes out where we get to enjoy him running and he gets a shot at redemption. He has a lot of catching up to do to be mentioned in the same company we heard whispers of prior to the Belmont

I didn't mean to say I think they could . . . I said I think they would . . . LOL.

Seriously speaking, no I think you are right -- which is why the indications of interest weren't strong. To pay that kind of money for a share, and to warrant the kind of stud fee the deal dictated -- people were going to wait. Those kind of #'s demand that the horse, as an individual, his accomplihments, etc. -- they had to transcend his pedigree, his sire, his feet, his problems, his lack of 2yo record/performance, and in some people's minds, his trainer.

Like I said, I hope we soon see.

Eric

[dylbert]

History shows that Big Brown finished last in 2008 Belmont Stakes and failed to win Triple Crown. No words posted here will ever change that fact.

Move on folks! Get ready for 2009 Derby Trail!!!

Gary Stevens could be back in the saddle soon.

He's like a broad in Bloomingdales...make up your mind, woman.

http://www.idahostatesman.com/sports/story/406103.html

[Danzig]

i don't think kd lost the race, the horse just wasn't there.
by the same token, i think kent would rather have gotten an ass beating then go to the front too soon, lose, and have to listen to ten years of that added onto ten years of moving real quiet too soon.

[westcoastinvader]

Originally Posted by Danzig

i don't think kd lost the race, the horse just wasn't there.
by the same token, i think kent would rather have gotten an ass beating then go to the front too soon, lose, and have to listen to ten years of that added onto ten years of moving real quiet too soon.

I love conspiracy theories, and that starter standing on the track in the same lane and spot Secretariat took in 1973 sure looks ominous.

And the white pants?

Sheesh.......was he wearing a white belt, too?

Immediately pre-race I think the national media was reporting $5.9 million had been bet at Belmont alone on Big Brown to win.

I was a bit suspect at the $48,000 superfecta payout when the solid chalk ran off the board, and the three longest shots on the board were in the Top 4.

I really thought the payout would have exceeded 48K and change, DH for 4th or not.

Not to mention the $3,700 trifecta with the two longest shots on the board in 1st and 3rd.