IEAH still whining, threatening to go to Haskell

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I am quite sure they would like to get Big Brown back to the races this summer. Considering all the value he has lost, he now has more upside than downside, and racing him is what they need to do.

I disagree, BTW. I think there is more downside to running him again. He is still the Derby and Preakness winner. And even if he doesn't run again, there's probably a 75% chance he'll be the 3-yr-old Eclipse winner.

His loss in the Belmont was so thorough that they can find some hairline fracture to blame it on and then retire him. I think there's much better than a 50/50 chance he never runs again.

If he runs again and loses again, then they're in trouble value-wise. (Unless they find that hairline fracture and blame both races on it!)

--Dunbar

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I disagree, BTW. I think there is more downside to running him again. He is still the Derby and Preakness winner. And even if he doesn't run again, there's probably a 75% chance he'll be the 3-yr-old Eclipse winner.

His loss in the Belmont was so thorough that they can find some hairline fracture to blame it on and then retire him. I think there's much better than a 50/50 chance he never runs again.

If he runs again and loses again, then they're in trouble value-wise. (Unless they find that hairline fracture and blame both races on it!)

--Dunbar

I'm not saying he has no downside. But, with his breeding, he's at the bottom end of what he could be worth considering his accomplishments.

You could argue both sides. I think they want to race him to give him back some luster.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I disagree, BTW. I think there is more downside to running him again. He is still the Derby and Preakness winner. And even if he doesn't run again, there's probably a 75% chance he'll be the 3-yr-old Eclipse winner.

His loss in the Belmont was so thorough that they can find some hairline fracture to blame it on and then retire him. I think there's much better than a 50/50 chance he never runs again.

If he runs again and loses again, then they're in trouble value-wise. (Unless they find that hairline fracture and blame both races on it!)

--Dunbar

As I have told you before, owners and trainers don't make up stories about hairline fractures. It is totally the opposite. They will often tell you that there is nothing wrong with a horse when there is in fact something wrong. They will also sometimes downplay injuries. Sometimes they'll even say that the horse has a bruised foot, when in fact he has something more serious.

But I have never seen or heard of an owner or trainer claiming a horse has a serious injury when he doesn't. When you are going to stand a horse at stud, you want people to think the horse was sound. The last thing in the world that you would do is say that the horse had a hairline fracture if he didn't.

I agree with you that BB will probably never run again. But it won't be beacuse of a made-up injury. It will most likely be because of his foot. By the time that foot is 100%, the year will pretty much be over.