BELMONT WED. C/O: 'my thank you note'

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by Scav

About the card, I have looked at it for now 3 hours, and I haven't had the benefit of replays yet but I have to say that I don't see a single 'confident' single.

Considerations would be Myakka(I think this race has a bunch of bad bad horses in there and the first to the lead might win, and even if there is a some BS speed from someone, his outside post will allow him to sit chilly for a little while), or Dancing Tin Man (a little interesting if the pace develops, has some number power)

I do kinda like Pluralcity first time turf but I worry about him getting hooked up with the speed. Pennington is interesting in that race also.

Not single-able in my opinion. . .

[NoLuvForPletch]

I found two singles for me that will allow me to spread in the other 4 races. It's just the way I will play it, and my reasoning won't be for everyone. If I cash with my 2 singles, who I happen to really like, they will both be at a decent price and the payday could be on the large side.

Especially if I beat Dancing Tin Man in the 6th, who will be the favorite and is Litfin's Best Bet. DTM's late moves aren't as fast as they appear as he came home in 30 sec flat for his last 5/16's last time out and 29 and 3/5ths 2 back, after a crawl through the majority of the race. I LOVE Stormy Mirage here, and he'll be a fair price. One of the few to graduate at the Open MSW level, and even though he's facing winners for the first time, he absolutely flew home last time, getting his last 3f in 34 and 3/5ths. My second single will be a horse that most of you will not like, La Ransom. She may go off as high a price as ever today, but here is why I like. Last time she broke from the rail (10/18/7), sprinting on turf, she went right to the lead and never looked back. That was with KJD aboard and he's back on today. I don't see anyone who's going to go 22, 45 and 2/5ths even though there is other speed signed on. Lastly, the winner of her last is a lot better than she ran on the 22nd, trust me I know. And as everyone can see Lost Without You came back to win last time. So, I give this second off the layoff the big thumbs up.

Like I said, this isn't for everyone, but if I get through these two races clean, it'll give me quite a few chances in the other 4 races.

Good Luck to everyone.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

Originally Posted by NoLuvForPletch

I found two singles for me that will allow me to spread in the other 4 races. It's just the way I will play it, and my reasoning won't be for everyone. If I cash with my 2 singles, who I happen to really like, they will both be at a decent price and the payday could be on the large side.

Especially if I beat Dancing Tin Man in the 6th, who will be the favorite and is Litfin's Best Bet. DTM's late moves aren't as fast as they appear as he came home in 30 sec flat for his last 5/16's last time out and 29 and 3/5ths 2 back, after a crawl through the majority of the race. I LOVE Stormy Mirage here, and he'll be a fair price. One of the few to graduate at the Open MSW level, and even though he's facing winners for the first time, he absolutely flew home last time, getting his last 3f in 34 and 3/5ths. My second single will be a horse that most of you will not like, La Ransom. She may go off as high a price as ever today, but here is why I like. Last time she broke from the rail (10/18/7), sprinting on turf, she went right to the lead and never looked back. That was with KJD aboard and he's back on today. I don't see anyone who's going to go 22, 45 and 2/5ths even though there is other speed signed on. Lastly, the winner of her last is a lot better than she ran on the 22nd, trust me I know. And as everyone can see Lost Without You came back to win last time. So, I give this second off the layoff the big thumbs up.

Like I said, this isn't for everyone, but if I get through these two races clean, it'll give me quite a few chances in the other 4 races.

Good Luck to everyone.

good luck with the first one..i could never single that horse vs these..

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by NoLuvForPletch

I LOVE Stormy Mirage here, and he'll be a fair price.

What do you think is a fair price?

He won't be close to the 10:1 ML.

[NoLuvForPletch]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

What do you think is a fair price?

He won't be close to the 10:1 ML.

I think anything above 6-1 would be fair, but I really like him off the last race. He probably should be closer to the 10-1 morning line with the majority of the field being multiple winners, so I guess my use of the word fair isn't correct. DTM will be the chalk and others who will take as much, if not more, money as him would be Sumphin, Romp, Personal Good and I think even the Dutrow with Prado aboard. So he could creep even closer to 10-1 than that, don't you think?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by NoLuvForPletch

I think anything above 6-1 would be fair, but I really like him off the last race. He probably should be closer to the 10-1 morning line with the majority of the field being multiple winners, so I guess my use of the word fair isn't correct. DTM will be the chalk and others who will take as much, if not more, money as him would be Sumphin, Romp, Personal Good and I think even the Dutrow with Prado aboard. So he could creep even closer to 10-1 than that, don't you think?

I think he should be, and will be, second choice at around 7:2. But, I honestly have to look at the race much more.

[NoLuvForPletch]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I think he should be, and will be, second choice at around 7:2. But, I honestly have to look at the race much more.

Well, if that is the case, singling him in my Pk 6 will probably be all I do with him. If he were more I'd make a win bet on him as well.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by NoLuvForPletch

Well, if that is the case, singling him in my Pk 6 will probably be all I do with him. If he were more I'd make a win bet on him as well.

I think Stormy Mirage will probably be fourth or fifth choice. I'd be shocked to see him at second choice.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by NoLuvForPletch

My second single will be a horse that most of you will not like, La Ransom. She may go off as high a price as ever today, but here is why I like. Last time she broke from the rail (10/18/7), sprinting on turf, she went right to the lead and never looked back. That was with KJD aboard and he's back on today. I don't see anyone who's going to go 22, 45 and 2/5ths even though there is other speed signed on. Lastly, the winner of her last is a lot better than she ran on the 22nd, trust me I know. And as everyone can see Lost Without You came back to win last time. So, I give this second off the layoff the big thumbs up.

I think the connections, if they look at the race, will scratch La Ransom in order to run her entrymate.

[docicu3]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I think the connections, if they look at the race, will scratch La Ransom in order to run her entrymate.

Are there any other early scratches in the P6 races your aware of sir??

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by docicu3

Are there any other early scratches in the P6 races your aware of sir??

The scratches come out tomorrow. I don't understand....how would I know of scratches?

I'm just guessing they will scratch La Ransom. If the connections look at the race, and have a pulse, they will scratch her. Whether or not they do is another question.

[Darrrr7]

Reyana's jet will be scratched. he won on Friday

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Darrrr7

Reyana's jet will be scratched. he won on Friday

I think that was already posted....he's also still a she.

[Bigsmc]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

The scratches come out tomorrow. I don't understand....how would I know of scratches?

I'm just guessing they will scratch La Ransom. If the connections look at the race, and have a pulse, they will scratch her. Whether or not they do is another question.

Apparently their lack of pulse did not allow them to look at the race because they are absolutely running the wrong horse.

[hurricanefrank]

Originally Posted by Bigsmc

Apparently their lack of pulse did not allow them to look at the race because they are absolutely running the wrong horse.

I totally agree. Given the pace scenario it seemed a no-brainer to run Mine Or Who's. Perhaps the post position draws played a part in the decision.

[NoLuvForPletch]

Originally Posted by Bigsmc

Apparently their lack of pulse did not allow them to look at the race because they are absolutely running the wrong horse.

Maybe that should tell you something...

[NoLuvForPletch]

Originally Posted by NoLuvForPletch

I found two singles for me that will allow me to spread in the other 4 races. It's just the way I will play it, and my reasoning won't be for everyone. If I cash with my 2 singles, who I happen to really like, they will both be at a decent price and the payday could be on the large side.

Especially if I beat Dancing Tin Man in the 6th, who will be the favorite and is Litfin's Best Bet. DTM's late moves aren't as fast as they appear as he came home in 30 sec flat for his last 5/16's last time out and 29 and 3/5ths 2 back, after a crawl through the majority of the race. I LOVE Stormy Mirage here, and he'll be a fair price. One of the few to graduate at the Open MSW level, and even though he's facing winners for the first time, he absolutely flew home last time, getting his last 3f in 34 and 3/5ths. My second single will be a horse that most of you will not like, La Ransom. She may go off as high a price as ever today, but here is why I like. Last time she broke from the rail (10/18/7), sprinting on turf, she went right to the lead and never looked back. That was with KJD aboard and he's back on today. I don't see anyone who's going to go 22, 45 and 2/5ths even though there is other speed signed on. Lastly, the winner of her last is a lot better than she ran on the 22nd, trust me I know. And as everyone can see Lost Without You came back to win last time. So, I give this second off the layoff the big thumbs up.

Like I said, this isn't for everyone, but if I get through these two races clean, it'll give me quite a few chances in the other 4 races.

Good Luck to everyone.

A day like to today will make me stay away until next week. I can accept not being good enough to get it done with Stormy Mirage, but how I could read the FORM and come up with the idea that La Ransom would be on the lead and have the race run like that is poor. Though I'm not sure what Kent was doing since the filly had only passed like 3 horses in her whole life.

Have a good week everyone.

[Scav]

I am probably going to talk this 9 right in the winner circle, but how are they betting this horse. Sure that last race was fast, but it was a slop top, on a horse with a 400 tomilson rating...Think he is a bad play....

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Scav

I am probably going to talk this 9 right in the winner circle, but how are they betting this horse. Sure that last race was fast, but it was a slop top, on a horse with a 400 tomilson rating...Think he is a bad play....

NY bettors love Jimmy the Jerk (for good reason), the horse is bred well, and he's got the best figure showing. I don't like him because I think this is a tough spot for 1st turf. I'm surprised the 7 is so high.

[tiggerv]

Papa Bear if Channing Hill doesn't butcher the ride too bad