Morning Line has The Tin Man 10-1 - Page 3

Dunbar · #41 08-10-2006, 06:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

Phoenix Reach is my pick. I hope his odds stay decent.

I don't think you'll have to worry about his odds staying decent. With no race in a year and no good race in 14 months, you'll get better than the ML 5-1, IMO.

I honestly would not take 5-1 on any horse in the race. Too many good ones.

There are a few I would love to have at 10-1, though. If Tin Man is close to that, I'll be on him. Same thing with Ace.

--Dunbar

GPK · #42 08-10-2006, 07:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I don't think you'll have to worry about his odds staying decent. With no race in a year and no good race in 14 months, you'll get better than the ML 5-1, IMO.

I honestly would not take 5-1 on any horse in the race. Too many good ones.

There are a few I would love to have at 10-1, though. If Tin Man is close to that, I'll be on him. Same thing with Ace.

--Dunbar

Oh pleeeeeeease let me get 5-1 on English Channel.

tiznowthegreat · #43 08-10-2006, 09:20 AM

In the words of the great Kenny Mayne:
I'm only saying it once - Touch of Land

Gander · #44 08-10-2006, 09:34 AM

Kev- I am thinking you may at best get 7/2 on English Channel. Which isnt a bad price if you believe in him. Nothing wrong with a horse that pays $9 and change. You all in on your $100 usual bet? Nothing this horse does would lead me to say not to make that bet, so good luck.

I may or may not get involved here. Depends on what the Saratoga card looks like and what prices I can get. I'm looking to make a solid $200 win bet on something in the 3/1 - 5/1 range (if not higher).

WIth EC leaving town, the Sword Dancer looks like a bust betting wise, unless you can find a horse to beat Relaxed Gesture. Hes tough to take at a very short price, yet tough to bet against for the sake of him being a favorite.

GPK · #45 08-10-2006, 09:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gander

Kev- I am thinking you may at best get 7/2 on English Channel. Which isnt a bad price if you believe in him. Nothing wrong with a horse that pays $9 and change. You all in on your $100 usual bet? Nothing this horse does would lead me to say not to make that bet, so good luck.

I may or may not get involved here. Depends on what the Saratoga card looks like and what prices I can get. I'm looking to make a solid $200 win bet on something in the 3/1 - 5/1 range (if not higher).

WIth EC leaving town, the Sword Dancer looks like a bust betting wise, unless you can find a horse to beat Relaxed Gesture. Hes tough to take at a very short price, yet tough to bet against for the sake of him being a favorite.

3-1 or higher, im in for a buck. Anything under that, in that field, $50

Dunbar · #46 08-10-2006, 11:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I honestly would not take 5-1 on any horse in the race. Too many good ones.

There are a few I would love to have at 10-1, though. If Tin Man is close to that, I'll be on him. Same thing with Ace.

Okay, I made a quick fair odds line for the race: Like I thought, I have no horse under 5-1.

English Channel 5-1
Tin Man, Cacique, Ace, Touch of Land 7-1
Soldier Hollow, Phoenix Ranch, Better Talk Now 10-1 (that's a wild guess on Phoenix)
Cosmonaut 25-1
Major Rhythm 50-1

Before bashing any of these assignments, make sure your final line adds to 100%. For example, if you think English Channel should be 3-1, then who are you going to raise? If you raise Tin Man to 10-1, it gets you less than half way to what you need. You'd have to raise him to 20-1 or raise another of the 7-1's to 10-1 for your odds line to add to 100%.

If you think English Channel should be 2-1, you'll have to do some major readjusting of my odds on several of the horses.

I'll bet Tin Man, Ace, and/or Touch of Land if any of them look to be 9-1 or better. (Even though I think fair odds are 7-1, that isn't good enough to bet. I need plenty of room for error.) I can forget about betting EC or Cacique--I won't see the odds I'd need.

My line might change depending on weather/course and any defections.

--Dunbar

Scurlogue Champ · #47 08-10-2006, 01:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GPK

Oh pleeeeeeease let me get 5-1 on English Channel.

I think he will go off as the favorite Kev, and that is a tragedy. You should get really good odds, but I don't see it happening.

#48 08-10-2006, 02:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GPK

Oh pleeeeeeease let me get 5-1 on English Channel.

Got a problem there Kev. This is a US horse that is too well known.

LARHAGE · #49 08-10-2006, 02:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig188

i think most everyone would love to see the tin man win, for sentimental reasons for many of us. it sure wouldn't break my heart if he won, altho i do like english channel.

I'm with ya, I would LOVE to see The Tin Man win, if not he than Cacique.

GPK · #50 08-10-2006, 03:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pgardn

Got a problem there Kev. This is a US horse that is too well known.

Yeah Pat, I would be pleasantly surprised if I get anything higher than 3-1.

Scav · #51 08-10-2006, 04:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GPK

Yeah Pat, I would be pleasantly surprised if I get anything higher than 3-1.

You will get EVERY part of 3/1 and possibly 4/1 on English Channel. All people are talking about around here are the euros

Dunbar · #52 08-10-2006, 04:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pgardn

Got a problem there Kev. This is a US horse that is too well known.

I think Kev was only reacting to my statement that I wouldn't bet any horse in the race at 5-1. He doesn't really think he's going to see 5-1 on EC.

--Dunbar

GPK · #53 08-10-2006, 04:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I think Kev was only reacting to my statement that I wouldn't bet any horse in the race at 5-1. He doesn't really think he's going to see 5-1 on EC.

--Dunbar

No way in he ll I see 5-1 on EC. If I do get that, I will make my biggest wager ever on a horse.

Cajungator26 · #54 08-10-2006, 04:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GPK

No way in he ll I see 5-1 on EC. If I do get that, I will make my biggest wager ever on a horse.

LMFAO... don't let that vicodin make decisions for you now... I will be riding Phoenix Reach and you shouldn't discount that.

Gander · #55 08-10-2006, 04:45 PM

What would that win bet be Kevin?

$200? $300?

GPK · #56 08-10-2006, 04:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

LMFAO... don't let that vicodin make decisions for you now... I will be riding Phoenix Reach and you shouldn't discount that.

speaking of riding...oh...we can talk about that tonight

Dunbar · #57 08-12-2006, 05:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

What in the world is the morning-line maker thinking? He's got The Tin Man at 10-1. I figured he'd be about 3-1. I think I saw English Channel at 3-1 and Cacique was about 7-2.

Right as usual, Rupert. I won't embarrass certain others by quoting their opinions of The Tin Man.

He looked awesome today.

--Dunbar