America's first Black President

[dylbert]

This election is already shaping up as battle for four states: Florida, Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Each of the other large states is decidely pro-McCain or pro-Obama. Also, many of the states that are leaning for one particular candidate seem nearly destined for that presidential hopeful.

Some facts:

1. the 92% or so of African-Americans that vote Democrat will vote Obama (neutral for Obama)
2. educated liberal white females will feel disinfranchised and may post lower turnout in November election (bad for Obama)
3. less-educated white males do not identify with Obama who is successful, liberal, well-educated, wealthy African-American male. Floyd R. Turbo ain't pulling donkey lever come November (bad for Obama)
4. conservatives must choose between lesser-of-two-evil liberal candidates -- who will "hurt" my pocketbook less (good for McCain based on his lengthy voting record)
5. Hispanics seem split between pro-entrepreneur (conservative) and pro-government (liberal) (neutral with no advantage to either candidate)

These next months will be filled with campaigning, pundits, advertising and telephone calls seeking support and money for millions of Americans.

Historical observation: US voters have elected three members of Congress to serve as their president: Garfield, Harding, and Kennedy. None lived to complete his term with two being assassinated. While Harding had what most historians agree as the most corrupt presidency ever. History does not suggest that either McCain or Obama will offer great leadership and, therefore, will serve only one term.

[hi_im_god]

Originally Posted by dylbert

This election is already shaping up as battle for four states: Florida, Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Each of the other large states is decidely pro-McCain or pro-Obama. Also, many of the states that are leaning for one particular candidate seem nearly destined for that presidential hopeful.

Some facts:

1. the 92% or so of African-Americans that vote Democrat will vote Obama (neutral for Obama)
2. educated liberal white females will feel disinfranchised and may post lower turnout in November election (bad for Obama)
3. less-educated white males do not identify with Obama who is successful, liberal, well-educated, wealthy African-American male. Floyd R. Turbo ain't pulling donkey lever come November (bad for Obama)
4. conservatives must choose between lesser-of-two-evil liberal candidates -- who will "hurt" my pocketbook less (good for McCain based on his lengthy voting record)
5. Hispanics seem split between pro-entrepreneur (conservative) and pro-government (liberal) (neutral with no advantage to either candidate)

These next months will be filled with campaigning, pundits, advertising and telephone calls seeking support and money for millions of Americans.

Historical observation: US voters have elected three members of Congress to serve as their president: Garfield, Harding, and Kennedy. None lived to complete his term with two being assassinated. While Harding had what most historians agree as the most corrupt presidency ever. History does not suggest that either McCain or Obama will offer great leadership and, therefore, will serve only one term.

the concept that mccain will put pennsyvania (which went for kerry by 2.5%) in play is much less plausible than one where ohio (which went for bush by 2.1%) is in play. the climate is far different than 2004. and obama won't have the money problems mccain will.

they're both one of 12-15 swing states, not 4. small states are overweighted in the electoral college. new mexico, colorado and nevada have 19 electoral college votes between them and all went for bush by small margins in 2004. ohio has 20.

if the economy stays in the tank, obama could win a landslide. he won't need the unpopular war.

if the economy improves, he still has the unpopular war.

i think your analysis misses the larger trends going on.

Originally Posted by dylbert

This election is already shaping up as battle for four states: Florida, Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Each of the other large states is decidely pro-McCain or pro-Obama. Also, many of the states that are leaning for one particular candidate seem nearly destined for that presidential hopeful.

Some facts:

1. the 92% or so of African-Americans that vote Democrat will vote Obama (neutral for Obama)
2. educated liberal white females will feel disinfranchised and may post lower turnout in November election (bad for Obama)
3. less-educated white males do not identify with Obama who is successful, liberal, well-educated, wealthy African-American male. Floyd R. Turbo ain't pulling donkey lever come November (bad for Obama)
4. conservatives must choose between lesser-of-two-evil liberal candidates -- who will "hurt" my pocketbook less (good for McCain based on his lengthy voting record)
5. Hispanics seem split between pro-entrepreneur (conservative) and pro-government (liberal) (neutral with no advantage to either candidate)

These next months will be filled with campaigning, pundits, advertising and telephone calls seeking support and money for millions of Americans.

Historical observation: US voters have elected three members of Congress to serve as their president: Garfield, Harding, and Kennedy. None lived to complete his term with two being assassinated. While Harding had what most historians agree as the most corrupt presidency ever. History does not suggest that either McCain or Obama will offer great leadership and, therefore, will serve only one term.

Numero cinco:

Slight advantage McCain. Military background is important to Hispanic voters. At least where I live. Obama might have had a slight chance to win Texas and seal the deal if Hispanics came out with the same fervor as blacks for Obama. But they will not.

As an aside and something fairly strange. I get the feeling Hispanic voters have a... dont know quite how to put it...

"Why dont we get as much minority representation as Blacks."
There is some tension. The governor of New Mexico came out for Obama very early to try and smooth this over but it will not work imo.

[GBBob]

Originally Posted by pgardn

Numero cinco:

Slight advantage McCain. Military background is important to Hispanic voters. At least where I live. Obama might have had a slight chance to win Texas and seal the deal if Hispanics came out with the same fervor as blacks for Obama. But they will not.

As an aside and something fairly strange. I get the feeling Hispanic voters have a... dont know quite how to put it...

"Why dont we get as much minority representation as Blacks."
There is some tension. The governor of New Mexico came out for Obama very early to try and smooth this over but it will not work imo.

Even if he chooses Richardson as his VP, which is what I am hoping for

Originally Posted by GBBob

Even if he chooses Richardson as his VP, which is what I am hoping for

In the Democratic primary here, Hispanics came out in very large numbers. More Hispanic females than I have ever witnessed. All Hillary. This large voting block does not come back to the polls for Obama.

Imo God is correct. The hanging with Iraq is the giant weight on McCain. That, and Obama will bring out more younger voters than ever before. I think this race easily brings over 60% of eligible voters. It might hit 70%. Thats a win for Obama.

Still way early.

[GBBob]

Originally Posted by pgardn

In the Democratic primary here, Hispanics came out in very large numbers. More Hispanic females than I have ever witnessed. All Hillary. This large voting block does not come back to the polls for Obama.

Imo God is correct. The hanging with Iraq is the giant weight on McCain. That, and Obama will bring out more younger voters than ever before. I think this race easily brings over 60% of eligible voters. It might hit 70%. Thats a win for Obama.

Still way early.

sorry to belabor the point, but do you think the above is true even if Richardson is on the ticket?

Originally Posted by GBBob

sorry to belabor the point, but do you think the above is true even if Richardson is on the ticket?

I dont think Richardson brings Hispanics
to Obama to make any sort of difference.
I really dont.

The young voter turnout could make a huge difference.
Imo Obama could be purple and younger voters of all
ethnic groups vote purple.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by GBBob

Even if he chooses Richardson as his VP, which is what I am hoping for

Sugar Ray? He needs a job...

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=2816356

[hi_im_god]

Originally Posted by pgardn

Numero cinco:

Slight advantage McCain. Military background is important to Hispanic voters. At least where I live. Obama might have had a slight chance to win Texas and seal the deal if Hispanics came out with the same fervor as blacks for Obama. But they will not.

As an aside and something fairly strange. I get the feeling Hispanic voters have a... dont know quite how to put it...

"Why dont we get as much minority representation as Blacks."
There is some tension. The governor of New Mexico came out for Obama very early to try and smooth this over but it will not work imo.

actually #5, like much of the post it's quoted from, is just dead wrong.

the latest national poll shows obama leading mccain among hispanic voters 62%-29%

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics...,5793717.story