Morning Line has The Tin Man 10-1

[Scav]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

I think the M/L is not too high. At this distance and against this competition I think he has very little chance of winning. Three years ago in his prime he went off at around 6:1 and got swallowed up in the stretch. For me he is an immediate toss.

You gotta give him a little chance, M. Smith was on him last time at Arlington...that is when he was an immediate toss.....

[Scav]

Also, I am going to be taking a HEAVY look at Touch of Land. PVal did not fit this guy when he came here last time and I remember him making a MONSTER move last year only to get into some trouble. I like how the jock is coming here also, just a thought

[Scurlogue Champ]

Originally Posted by Scav

Also, I am going to be taking a HEAVY look at Touch of Land. PVal did not fit this guy when he came here last time and I remember him making a MONSTER move last year only to get into some trouble. I like how the jock is coming here also, just a thought

You are correct by taking a HEAVY look at him.

Also take a heavy look at Phoenix Reach.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by moodwalker

You are correct by taking a HEAVY look at him.

Also take a heavy look at Phoenix Reach.

Phoenix Reach is my pick. I hope his odds stay decent.

[ceejay]

Looking at the Euros, Soldier Hollow looks interesting to me....

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by ceejay

Looking at the Euros, Soldier Hollow looks interesting to me....

Well he's got a great arlington turf jock in Douglas. I just don't know how tough those fields were in Germany this year, where by the way he hasn't managed to win yet this year. I can't imagine that this race represents any kind of class relief for him.

[Scav]

I just thoroughly looked at the PP's for the Million. These Euro's LOOK RIDICULOUS. Ace, Solider's Hollow, Phoenix Reach and I am not throwing out Touch of Land. I went down from 1-11 so I am looking at Ace, and I am like "WOW, serious Timeform ratings, and I think he loves lasix" then I go down to Touch of Land, and I see the same progession as he took last year, and I SWEAR he made some sort of monster move in last years Million, Euro jock comes here, Then I go down to Soldier Hollow and I see 1) Douglas, great breeding for the distance, competitive timeform ratings, THEN i go to Phoenix Reach, while I am not a fan of the layoff, look at the horses he has run up against(Zenna's Rob Roy, Rakti, Alexander Goldrun, Azamour(FRIGGIN RAT IN THE BC TURF but tough in Euro), Bago (another rat but tough in euro)

Man, I am so excited about this weekend, these races are going to be awesome to watch in person...I will say this though, I am going to be in the paddock for this race because I want to see what some of these horses look ilke, if I can't make a decision, I might be going 5-6 deep in this race....

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

Phoenix Reach is my pick. I hope his odds stay decent.

I don't think you'll have to worry about his odds staying decent. With no race in a year and no good race in 14 months, you'll get better than the ML 5-1, IMO.

I honestly would not take 5-1 on any horse in the race. Too many good ones.

There are a few I would love to have at 10-1, though. If Tin Man is close to that, I'll be on him. Same thing with Ace.

--Dunbar

[GPK]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I don't think you'll have to worry about his odds staying decent. With no race in a year and no good race in 14 months, you'll get better than the ML 5-1, IMO.

I honestly would not take 5-1 on any horse in the race. Too many good ones.

There are a few I would love to have at 10-1, though. If Tin Man is close to that, I'll be on him. Same thing with Ace.

--Dunbar

Oh pleeeeeeease let me get 5-1 on English Channel.

[tiznowthegreat]

In the words of the great Kenny Mayne:
I'm only saying it once - Touch of Land

[Scurlogue Champ]

Originally Posted by GPK

Oh pleeeeeeease let me get 5-1 on English Channel.

I think he will go off as the favorite Kev, and that is a tragedy. You should get really good odds, but I don't see it happening.

Originally Posted by GPK

Oh pleeeeeeease let me get 5-1 on English Channel.

Got a problem there Kev. This is a US horse that is too well known.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I honestly would not take 5-1 on any horse in the race. Too many good ones.

There are a few I would love to have at 10-1, though. If Tin Man is close to that, I'll be on him. Same thing with Ace.

Okay, I made a quick fair odds line for the race: Like I thought, I have no horse under 5-1.

English Channel 5-1
Tin Man, Cacique, Ace, Touch of Land 7-1
Soldier Hollow, Phoenix Ranch, Better Talk Now 10-1 (that's a wild guess on Phoenix)
Cosmonaut 25-1
Major Rhythm 50-1

Before bashing any of these assignments, make sure your final line adds to 100%. For example, if you think English Channel should be 3-1, then who are you going to raise? If you raise Tin Man to 10-1, it gets you less than half way to what you need. You'd have to raise him to 20-1 or raise another of the 7-1's to 10-1 for your odds line to add to 100%.

If you think English Channel should be 2-1, you'll have to do some major readjusting of my odds on several of the horses.

I'll bet Tin Man, Ace, and/or Touch of Land if any of them look to be 9-1 or better. (Even though I think fair odds are 7-1, that isn't good enough to bet. I need plenty of room for error.) I can forget about betting EC or Cacique--I won't see the odds I'd need.

My line might change depending on weather/course and any defections.

--Dunbar

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Scav

You gotta give him a little chance, M. Smith was on him last time at Arlington...that is when he was an immediate toss.....

No way, he isn't going to wire this field and won't have any response to the closers in the stretch. imo

[Scav]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

No way, he isn't going to wire this field and won't have any response to the closers in the stretch. imo

It was a joke..FUNNY HOW, FUNNY LIKE A CLOWN?