Morning Line has The Tin Man 10-1

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

I think the M/L is not too high. At this distance and against this competition I think he has very little chance of winning. Three years ago in his prime he went off at around 6:1 and got swallowed up in the stretch. For me he is an immediate toss.

I think he is a better horse now. If I remember correctly he just ran off and got swallowed. He has learned.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by pgardn

I think he is a better horse now. If I remember correctly he just ran off and got swallowed. He has learned.

No he ran second all the way around and was passed by five horses in the stretch. I'm looking at the PP's.

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

No he ran second all the way around and was passed by five horses in the stretch. I'm looking at the PP's.

Yes but he ran off. That race was on soft turf. If the course is fast he is a player. The horse is definitley better now. I think he is in deep but he is going to have an impact on the race. Probably will ruin some other front running types. If I could read the damn timeform crap I would have some idea what the foreign horses do. How in Gods name do they handicap races over there besides watching replays?

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by pgardn

Yes but he ran off. That race was on soft turf. If the course is fast he is a player. The horse is definitley better now. I think he is in deep but he is going to have an impact on the race. Probably will ruin some other front running types. If I could read the damn timeform crap I would have some idea what the foreign horses do. How in Gods name do they handicap races over there besides watching replays?

He'll be a factor, yes. He'll be one of the leading horses spread across the track as they straighten for home. By the time the wire arrives he'll be no better than fourth.

[Scav]

Note: I don't know if this is an angle or not but Gaff went to Dubai also and his first race back in the states was a decent race, only to throw a complete clunker next out...

I know Tin ran well last time, could this be his clunker?

I am thinking I am gonna try for some Euro lovin and throw in English Channel, maybe just English Channel and Ace, but that will cause some serious anxiety....

[ArlJim78]

I think it could be another year where 5 or 6 horses are in the win photo.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Scav

Note: I don't know if this is an angle or not but Gaff went to Dubai also and his first race back in the states was a decent race, only to throw a complete clunker next out...

I know Tin ran well last time, could this be his clunker?

I am thinking I am gonna try for some Euro lovin and throw in English Channel, maybe just English Channel and Ace, but that will cause some serious anxiety....

I wouldn't really say that Gaff ran good when he came back. He ran 3rd in a 7 horse field at Pimlico. It wasn't a great field. I think the only decent horse in the race was Friendly Island. A horse called Celtic Innis ran 2nd. The rest of the field was Better Than Bonds, Gold Cluster, Kazoo and Crafty Schemer.

Acually I take that back. I am editing this post. I just watched that Pimlico race and I do think that Gaff ran a pretty good race that day.

Your theory can be true in some cases. A horse can get back from a long trip and may run well the first time but then the fatigue kicks in after that.

[1st_Saturday_in_May]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I wouldn't really say that Gaff ran good when he came back. He ran 3rd in a 7 horse field at Pimlico. It wasn't a great field. I think the only decent horse in the race was Friendly Island. A horse called Celtic Innis ran 2nd. The rest of the field was Better Than Bonds, Gold Cluster, Kazoo and Crafty Schemer.

Acually I take that back. I am editing this post. I just watched that Pimlico race and I do think that Gaff ran a pretty good race that day.

Your theory can be true in some cases. A horse can get back from a long trip and may run well the first time but then the fatigue kicks in after that.

I just watched Gaff get his ass beat at god damn Mountaineer with my money on him. . He is definitely not the same horse that won the Mr. Prospector last winter...