|
|
 |
|
|
|
#1
05-20-2008, 09:35 AM
|
||||
|
||||
Corey black off
|
|
#2
05-20-2008, 09:36 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Mike Luzzi and Raul Rojas at Saratoga. Those guys were money for me last year.
|
|
#3
05-20-2008, 09:42 AM
|
||||
|
||||
|
When a trainer has a really strong contender and places another horse in the race with much longer odds, I play the longer shot to win and box the exacta always.
When a trainer has entries in several big races in different parts of the country or world, I lean towards the horses at the location where he actually is. Trainers like to get their picture taken. Back in his heyday, when Lukas was running multiple strings all over the place, where he was was where he felt he had the best chance of winning. If he was in a suit instead of jeans and a shirt, it was a lock. When Pletcher has a horse in a race and JVelasquez rides another horse, I like to bet the horse JV is riding.
__________________
The real horses of the year (1986-2020) Manila, Java Gold, Alysheba, Sunday Silence, Go for Wand, In Excess, Paseana, Kotashaan, Holy Bull, Cigar, Alphabet Soup, Formal Gold, Skip Away, Artax, Tiznow, Point Given, Azeri, Candy Ride, Smarty Jones, Ghostzapper, Invasor, Curlin, Zenyatta, Zenyatta, Goldikova, Havre de Grace, Wise Dan, Wise Dan, California Chrome, American Pharoah, Arrogate, Gun Runner, Accelerate, Maximum Security, Gamine
|
|
#7
05-20-2008, 09:50 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Quote:
I don't have time to call you every race and give you the winner 
|
|
#8
05-20-2008, 10:02 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Auto-toss jockeys with matching yellow lambos.
|
|
#9
05-20-2008, 10:42 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Quote:
You don't have a damn thing else to do...
|
|
#10
05-20-2008, 02:35 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Quote:
|
|
#11
05-20-2008, 09:48 AM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Quote:
I have hit exactly ONE wager of any substance so far this meet. I'll try to post more picks so you can toss them.
|
|
#12
05-21-2008, 10:50 AM
|
||||
|
||||
|
- Flashed speed in last (signals pending improvement)
- Hidden competitive Beyer - Last out winner I need to justify the last, but it never seems to fail, a horse who wins his/her last race is in form, and that along is worth consideration. But don't think I bet blindly $5k's going into entry-level allowances all the time!!
|
|
#14
05-21-2008, 06:48 AM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Quote:
Never bet a horse named "Warren's".................. Must play Joy Scott on a 5/8 oval. Toss any horse trained by Steve Knapp.
|
|
#15
05-22-2008, 03:24 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Quote:
|
|
#16
05-23-2008, 07:20 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
1) First start after a claim
2) Last race out of the money finish 3) Last race more than 30 days ago (longer the better) 4) Raise in class 5) 12%+ trainer first start after claim stat My theory is the trainer found a problem with the horse, took the time to fix it, and has the confidence to raise him in class even though he has waited out the claiming "jail time" even with a last race out of the money finish.
|
|
#17
05-23-2008, 12:13 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
I like "hidden" changes with lasix or blinker change
let me try to explain, this is not first time lasix or change of blinkers but first time to new surface or distance with the change an example, say a horse has been sprinting all along then gets lasix or blinker change in one of his races sprinting, now he switches surface or distance, this is when you bet, it will not show as first time lasix or blinkers but it will be his first time trying new surface or distance with that change even if he has tried them in the past without. confusing-maybe but worth it as an angle-
|
|
#18
05-23-2008, 12:18 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Interesting angle from Davidovitz's chapter in Bet With the Best II:
Horses who have been training downstate (BEL/AQU) that ship up at the end of the Saratoga meet even though there will probably be a race with similar conditions at Belmont when it opens back up.
|
|
#19
05-23-2008, 02:15 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
In maiden claimers, I like to research the female family, using my APR. If the dam and the second dam have foaled a lot of winners, especially multiple winners, the runner gets extra credit, whereas if the dam and second dam have a lot of unraced or unplaced foals and their few winners only broke their maidens, that one gets tossed.
This angle doesn't work nearly as well in MSW on the circuits I usually bet, since most of the horses entered there will be from decent families.
|
Hybrid Mode
