Beyer still not sold on Big Brown

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by Round Pen

Freedy not to start an arguement but expert handicapper's do not use BSF to be honest most of the time they are useless to them. Go check out what BB ran on the sheets on thorograph he Ran a -4 1/2 which is the best number in the history since Thorograph started doing the derby OK if you don't Like Jerry Brown (I do) and Thorograph.

Go check out the Rag SHeets he ran a -1 which is the best number in the history of Ragozin's since they started doing the Derby. SO to say BB is not fast is totally not true IMO ROund Pen

Was BB the OVERWHELMING pick of the sheets BEFORE the Derby?

[The Bid]

TFM,

Ive seen horses move up and down 4-5 points on sheet numbers depending what they do in their next start. They are a joke.

[Round Pen]

Originally Posted by The Bid

TFM,

Ive seen horses move up and down 4-5 points on sheet numbers depending what they do in their next start. They are a joke.

why is moving 4 or 5 point in there next start make them a joke they are a very useful tool when you are handicapping. THats why most of the biggest Gamblers around incorporate one of the 2 sheets (Thorograph or Rags ) when they are playing the races.

One other note if a 4 or 5 point move is a joke then what would you consider a 30 to 40 point BSF move in a horses next start A Comedy Festival ?????

[Round Pen]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Was BB the OVERWHELMING pick of the sheets BEFORE the Derby?

TFM you can go to either Web site thorograph.com or thesheets.com and review there Derby sheets for free you do have to register though.

But to answer your Question BB was the fastest horse going in and I believe if I remember right on thorograph if you took BB on top in the tri's over the horse's that had the next best numbers you would have hit the tri.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by Round Pen

TFM you can go to either Web site thorograph.com or thesheets.com and review there Derby sheets for free you do have to register though.

But to answer your Question BB was the fastest horse going in and I believe if I remember right on thorograph if you took BB on top in the tri's over the horse's that had the next best numbers you would have hit the tri.

That may be true, but TG often doesn't like the fastest horse expecting a bounce.

Here was the BB Preakness analysis:

BIG BROWN—ran a giant figure in the Florida Derby, and once we took
into account his wide trip (5w4w), even bigger in the Derby. That negative
4 ¾ was the best Derby performance since we’ve been making figures, and
if this colt runs back to either of his last two he’ll win this easily. But the
first was on 24 days rest, the Derby on five weeks, and now he comes back
on just two weeks rest following extreme exertion, no matter how easy it
looked. This is the same scenario Barbaro faced, and Big Brown has a
history of soundness problems. All of which doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll
break down, but we do expect a significant regression—which doesn’t
necessarily mean he’ll lose. But it does mean he’s vulnerable at a very short
price.

This includes some Derby comments:

BOTTOM LINE---We said before the Derby that Big Brown was the most
likely winner but with only about a 20% chance, and that he had a good
chance to run out of the exotics. Well, he’s the most likely winner of the
Preakness, at about 40%, with about the same chance of running out, So one
approach is to play him to bounce, boxing others in the exotics and shooting
for a big payday.
The Thoro-Graph Race Shape for the Preakness shows that the early
pace will be moderate, and the entire field may be bunched within 10 lengths
around the first turn. This may make it tough for horses drawn outside,
which unfortunately includes some of the longshots we like—Kentucky
Bear, Giant Moon, and Hey Byrn. Behindatthebar drew better, and we would
be inclined to use him heavier. And i t also wouldn’t be a crazy idea to use
Big Brown over those horses in trifectas and superfectas.