Betting the Preakness

[Scav]

Originally Posted by jms62

I liked Gayego and Hey Byrn until they received the death sentence post positions... Not many win from that wide at Pimlico... I also liked Behindatthebar until he was scratched... I'll go 3 deep on top in my exotics, RacecarRhaposdy, Yankee Bravo and Big Brown.... I find it interesting that Big Brown is facing a field he should crush BUT the Wallstreet Gang is busting their ass to get a stud deal done BEFORE the Preakness when in my opinion Bieg Browns value will only GO UP with a Preakness Win....

What does a Preakness win get them as far as increasing a stud deal? Probably not much IMO, but I am far from an expert...

[jms62]

Originally Posted by Scav

What does a Preakness win get them as far as increasing a stud deal? Probably not much IMO, but I am far from an expert...

Sorry Scav but I respectfully disagree. It is basic economics of risk... I think we agree that his highest value would be as a Triple Crown winner... Whoever is buying in would be taking a lot less risk if he were 2/3 of the way there and it would be reflected in the price they pay... If the deal were done today, the buyers are assuming the risk that BB never wins another race so they basically will get a lightly raced derby winner with 3 lifetime wins and a history of physical issues... It would be interesting to see if the numbers are in the Smarty Jones territory. I think that would be a decent gauge as to the value of a Derby winner vs the value of a Derby/Preakness winner. These guys are cagey characters who eat Risk/Reward calculations for breakfast. Being competitors, they wouldn't give up a nickel if they thought they could get it...

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by jms62

Sorry Scav but I respectfully disagree. It is basic economics of risk... I think we agree that his highest value would be as a Triple Crown winner... Whoever is buying in would be taking a lot less risk if he were 2/3 of the way there and it would be reflected in the price they pay... If the deal were done today, the buyers are assuming the risk that BB never wins another race so they basically will get a lightly raced derby winner with 3 lifetime wins and a history of physical issues... It would be interesting to see if the numbers are in the Smarty Jones territory. I think that would be a decent gauge as to the value of a Derby winner vs the value of a Derby/Preakness winner.

I can see both sides, but I feel like a Preakness win does not necessarily inflate the horse's value all that much. With a horse like BB, after his Derby performance, a Preakness victory is expected, so its not like he'll be going above and beyond what everyone expects on Saturday. Now a TC win, or a Belmont score, that's a different animal.

[DogsUp]

I am far from an expert on Stud purchases. In my opinion, BB has already won on turf, won the Florida Derby and KY Derby so I highly doubt that his value would go up just because of a victory in the Preakness. There has to be some sort of ceiling to his value even if he goes on to win the TC. And I can only guess that they buyers and sellers are already at that ceiling or extremely close to it.