Biancone, cold with 2 year olds, my theory why

Originally Posted by Scav

Training track is about two seconds slower, workout wise right?

Correct Scav.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by oracle80

Correct Scav.

I knew it, that f'n Zito worked that Grand Slam colt(3 horse) the other day 49.6 and I looked at it a split second and passed, played a couple horses that are still running.....Still salty about this one

[ceejay]

Interesting analysis, Oracle.

[Nostradamus]

This is just somebody who doesn't like polytrack. City Snitch won because he was a very good horse with a race under his belt, not because he went up to Oklahoma. There are a million reasons why he might not be doing as well with two year old first starters (if that is even factually correct). The weather has been 90 degrees the entire meet and the track surface has been all over the place. He might just have two year olds that haven't liked the weather or he might have learned a lesson that getting 2yr olds cranked up for their first start is moronic. I see Pletcher has had a ton of success in the classic races with this brilliant way of training. Asmussen too.

If you bet on heavy favorite 2yr old horses at Saratoga you are insane.

[zippyneedsawin]

Originally Posted by Nostradamus

This is just somebody who doesn't like polytrack. City Snitch won because he was a very good horse with a race under his belt, not because he went up to Oklahoma. There are a million reasons why he might not be doing as well with two year old first starters (if that is even factually correct). The weather has been 90 degrees the entire meet and the track surface has been all over the place. He might just have two year olds that haven't liked the weather or he might have learned a lesson that getting 2yr olds cranked up for their first start is moronic. I see Pletcher has had a ton of success in the classic races with this brilliant way of training. Asmussen too.

If you bet on heavy favorite 2yr old horses at Saratoga you are insane.

Did somebody say something??


Something else to consider is how speed has been playing at Saratoga so far, it appears to me that speed is not holding up that well(most of the time). If Biancone's babies are all speed demons, that could be another factor for why he's not succeeding this year with 2yos.

[ceejay]

It could be a lot of reasons. It could also be that the ones he left in KY were just behind City Snitch developmentally. I really don't care why. I find the observation interesting and from a handicapping perspective I'll keep an eye out for the PT returners and see if they step forward and then maybe have a playable angle.

[jpops757]

I have noticed after a strong start with his 2yr old ,Assmusen has tailed of a he is bringing some of thers from TP also. I havent looked at all of them but I remember several and Oras post sure does make sense.

This was something that I noticed during Churchill's summer meet. Horses would train at Turfway on the Polytrack and then not run very well at Churchill.

[JJP]

Interesting angle. But isn't it possible that maybe there's some sort of virus going thru Biancone's barn? Maybe nothing serious but we see how streaky some trainers get.

It also should be pointed out that trainers like Romans and others were doing quite well at CD and Kee when shipping in from TP off the Polytrack workouts. Also isn't it possible that Biancone's horses may be better when the distances get longer since so many of them are classicly bred?

[Nostradamus]

Originally Posted by JJP

Interesting angle. But isn't it possible that maybe there's some sort of virus going thru Biancone's barn? Maybe nothing serious but we see how streaky some trainers get.

It also should be pointed out that trainers like Romans and others were doing quite well at CD and Kee when shipping in from TP off the Polytrack workouts. Also isn't it possible that Biancone's horses may be better when the distances get longer since so many of them are classicly bred?

There are a million reasons but polytrack isn't one. Horses do just fine going from poly to dirt, as you pointed out. They just don't like polytrack and they worship Saratoga. Keeneland, and probably Del Mar and Churchill are going poly and they are trying to make their great NY tracks out to be something special.

Who cares about the horses being safer on poly though as long as Saratoga stays dirt. Screw the horses. LOL

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by Nostradamus

There are a million reasons but polytrack isn't one. Horses do just fine going from poly to dirt, as you pointed out. They just don't like polytrack and they worship Saratoga. Keeneland, and probably Del Mar and Churchill are going poly and they are trying to make their great NY tracks out to be something special.

Who cares about the horses being safer on poly though as long as Saratoga stays dirt. Screw the horses. LOL

Show me the FACTS that polytrack is actually safer than a well founded dirt track and I would agree that switching surfaces is better. I don't think that polytrack has been around long enough in order to prove that it is safer.

[Nostradamus]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

Show me the FACTS that polytrack is actually safer than a well founded dirt track and I would agree that switching surfaces is better. I don't think that polytrack has been around long enough in order to prove that it is safer.

This is absolutely ridiculous. Polytrack is much safer and any horseman knows that. Get on a horse on the poly and you will see how much firmer a footing a horse has.

Here from Keeneland

Why Keeneland Believes A Polytrack Racing Surface Is Superior to a Conventional Dirt Track
Statistics are showing that Polytrack is a safer racing surface for horses and jockeys. Its soft surface is kinder to horses’ joints and legs.
A Polytrack surface remains consistent regardless of weather. Comparatively, with a conventional dirt track, weather--especially rain and cold temperatures that can cause a racetrack to freeze and thaw--can produce dangerous conditions on a racing surface.
Since installing Polytrack, Turfway Park has improved safety, increased the number of starters, and greatly decreased the number of cancelled racing dates due to track condition or weather.

Fall ’04 thru Winter ‘05 Fall ’05 thru Winter ‘06
Catastrophic Breakdowns 24 3
Number of Starters 8,925 10,208
Cancelled Racing Days 11 1

from 24 breakdowns to 3. 11 cancelled racing days to 1.

The sub layers include porous macadam and dense aggregate rock that provide a solid foundation while vertical drainage pipes carry water away from the track. Together, these elements provide a safer, more consistent racing surface compared to a conventional dirt track.

[slotdirt]

If horses run so well from poly to dirt, why is it a pretty widely used angle to not use a horse who has run really well on poly their first start back on dirt? Just wondering.

[JJP]

Originally Posted by Nostradamus

There are a million reasons but polytrack isn't one. Horses do just fine going from poly to dirt, as you pointed out. They just don't like polytrack and they worship Saratoga. Keeneland, and probably Del Mar and Churchill are going poly and they are trying to make their great NY tracks out to be something special.

Who cares about the horses being safer on poly though as long as Saratoga stays dirt. Screw the horses. LOL

Churchill is not going Polytrack. The Cali tracks will, Woodbine is, Kee and TP are and probably Arlington in the future. But don't look for Churchill to change.

Originally Posted by JJP

Churchill is not going Polytrack. The Cali tracks will, Woodbine is, Kee and TP are and probably Arlington in the future. But don't look for Churchill to change.

Would it shock you if I told you that(strictly hearsay so Euro doesn't freak out) that some folks up here I know have said that a couple of prominent trainers out west are already making plans to run the bulk of their horses in Kentucky and NY and Gulfstream after the switch is made out in Cali? Noone with Derby dreams or grade one aspirations is going to want to prep for the Roses out there, and with good reason.
Good friend of mine is a retired trainer, now a clocker and manager of a few small stables. He trained for 33 years and told me last week when we were discussing breakdowns that in 33 years he had 3 horses break down and die on the track. He said that after each one he wanted to quite the game, said he never did anything in his life to hurt a horse. He told me emphatically that the reasons for the breakdowns are not the surfaces, but the trainers who now run horses back so quickly and often and the new vet techniques that allow a horse to run who should be laid up. Said all the hyuralonic acid and cortisone they use in joints as well as other medications are allowing horses to run who should never get by the vet but because they need to fill cards that noone disallows it. He also said in his unique Maryland accent "son if they go to that stuff it will change the whole breed around and screw up the whole breeding market and you tell me whose gonna pay all this money for horses when they aint worth nothing when they are done with the track". This guy is a unique racetrack character but did train a lot stakes winners and even had grade one winners. EPBurns knows this guy very well. He also pointed out that the guys pushing this stuff were all european and he said "**** son, them guys been trying to come over and beat us for years and they never could figure the **** out how to put the speed in em that we do and get em to stretch, they can't do it! All those ****ing guys wanna do is make it so horses without speed can just keep galloping along and win races."
Now you can tell me I don't know what I am talking about and you may be right, I am not a trainer, I don't know. But I can tell you that the trainers I know and have asked all dislike the stuff to a man, not one yet has told me they wanna race on it.

[kenny p]

Oracle, First, another thanks for Cotton Blossoms. Your thread on Biancone is very interesting. I will be paying close attention to his 2 yr olds from here on in. Guys like you and Steve clue me in to things I would not have seen myself. All part of a never ending education. Thanks KP

[timmgirvan]

Nice work,Big-O!