Big Brown will not race after this year

CSC · #1 05-15-2008, 01:14 PM

I don't see why breeders would rush out to breed to him considering Curlin will enter stud duty next year. Curlin to me has a much more attractive pedigree who has proven a heck of alot more in my eyes. Aren't these guys rushing the gun ya think?

Danzig · #2 05-15-2008, 01:29 PM

it's not as tho curlin can cover every mare out there. big brown will get his share...
also depends on what you're looking for out of a horse, and what you've got as far as mare, as to who you'd use for a stud.

parsixfarms · #3 05-15-2008, 01:58 PM

Does it strike anyone as odd that today is the day that they are announcing the stud deal? I know that the Wall Street guys want to "sell high," but if you had supreme confidence in the horse and his ability to win the Triple Crown, wouldn't you wait until after the Belmont until you finalized the stud deal? All he can do now is devalue himself (see Majestic Warrior and War Pass).

cakes44 · #4 05-15-2008, 02:34 PM

I know very little about the breeding business,I can't think of too many reasons why someone would send a mare to Big Brown over Hard Spun while both are unknowns.

Linny · #5 05-15-2008, 02:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

Does it strike anyone as odd that today is the day that they are announcing the stud deal? I know that the Wall Street guys want to "sell high," but if you had supreme confidence in the horse and his ability to win the Triple Crown, wouldn't you wait until after the Belmont until you finalized the stud deal? All he can do now is devalue himself (see Majestic Warrior and War Pass).

Maybe they think he wont ever be worth more that he is right now.

parsixfarms · #6 05-15-2008, 02:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Linny

Maybe they think he wont ever be worth more that he is right now.

That's my point. If that's what they're thinking, what does it say about their perspective on his chances in the Preakness and/or Belmont?

Cannon Shell · #7 05-15-2008, 02:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

That's my point. If that's what they're thinking, what does it say about their perspective on his chances in the Preakness and/or Belmont?

Nothing i think because the top of the market is the top of the market. If he is already there he can only go down and why risk that?

parsixfarms · #8 05-15-2008, 02:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Nothing i think because the top of the market is the top of the market. If he is already there he can only go down and why risk that?

Do you think he's at the "top of the market" now? Stated another way, is he worth as much now as he would be if he won the Triple Crown? If the answer to the last question is "yes," then I agree that doing the deal now makes sense.

CSC · #9 05-15-2008, 04:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig

it's not as tho curlin can cover every mare out there. big brown will get his share...
also depends on what you're looking for out of a horse, and what you've got as far as mare, as to who you'd use for a stud.

True, however I'd rather have the Mr. Prospector/Smart Strike(Sib to Dance Smartly) bloodline, to me it's a hot pedigree that has alot of depth to it. To me it's a no brainer if I had a band of broodmares who I would like to cover.

Danzig · #10 05-15-2008, 10:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CSC

True, however I'd rather have the Mr. Prospector/Smart Strike(Sib to Dance Smartly) bloodline, to me it's a hot pedigree that has alot of depth to it. To me it's a no brainer if I had a band of broodmares who I would like to cover.

oh, i'd go to just about any 100k stud over big brown. boundary doesn't warrant that kind of attention.
interesting the deal fell thru that was expected to be announced today. i think ieah is asking more than the horse is really worth at this point. i mean, giacomo won the derby, it didn't turn him into a 100k horse. as said, big brown is a boundary-big deal.

hockey2315 · #11 05-15-2008, 11:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig

oh, i'd go to just about any 100k stud over big brown. boundary doesn't warrant that kind of attention.
interesting the deal fell thru that was expected to be announced today. i think ieah is asking more than the horse is really worth at this point. i mean, giacomo won the derby, it didn't turn him into a 100k horse. as said, big brown is a boundary-big deal.

ateamstupid · #12 05-15-2008, 11:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig

oh, i'd go to just about any 100k stud over big brown. boundary doesn't warrant that kind of attention.
interesting the deal fell thru that was expected to be announced today. i think ieah is asking more than the horse is really worth at this point. i mean, giacomo won the derby, it didn't turn him into a 100k horse. as said, big brown is a boundary-big deal.

Flawless comparison.

Danzig · #13 05-16-2008, 07:22 AM

what i mean is that just because a horse wins the derby, he doesn't suddenly become a 100k stud fee, $50 million horse. ieah is trying to get that kind of money-street sense didn't (none of the retired three year olds last year got that), giacomo didn't-so why would a horse by boundary be worth that much?

GenuineRisk · #14 05-15-2008, 02:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CSC

I don't see why breeders would rush out to breed to him considering Curlin will enter stud duty next year. Curlin to me has a much more attractive pedigree who has proven a heck of alot more in my eyes. Aren't these guys rushing the gun ya think?

I'm the first to say I don't know much about the breeding business, but it seems like a lot of it depends on irrational exuberance for the hot new thing- if they run Big Brown at 4, and he doesn't do well, they won't be able to charge as high a stud fee as if they retire him this year, while he's still the most recent KDerby winner. Add to that, most stallions fail at stud, so it's important they make as much money as they can as soon as they can, so if he's a stud dud they'll still have made their $$.

Like someone said, it's a breeding business, with a few races tossed in on the side.

CSC · #15 05-15-2008, 04:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GenuineRisk

I'm the first to say I don't know much about the breeding business, but it seems like a lot of it depends on irrational exuberance for the hot new thing- if they run Big Brown at 4, and he doesn't do well, they won't be able to charge as high a stud fee as if they retire him this year, while he's still the most recent KDerby winner. Add to that, most stallions fail at stud, so it's important they make as much money as they can as soon as they can, so if he's a stud dud they'll still have made their $$.

Like someone said, it's a breeding business, with a few races tossed in on the side.

He'll probably end up in Japan if he fails here, his sire Boundary if I am correct has only had lukewarm success as a stud making him a risky proposition if you ask me. If he wins the triple then I couldn't really blame his owners for wanting to cash in, it's easy to sit here and blast owners for not wanting to race their horses but we don't have million dollar investments that at any freak moment something can go wrong with them, if I were a breeder I would tend to be on the cautious side with this one. The thought of the late St. Liam throwing out a few would have scared me also.