Casino Drive Beyer vs Unbridleds Heart Beyer

[Payson Dave]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

He ran a 43, I believe, in his debut.

I don't have the form for Saturday here in front of me...I'll assume you are right....is your point that the improvement was too much to reasonably accept?

[cmorioles]

There is no doubt he improved, and I am certainly not surprised a second time starter would do so. However, with a Beyer of 85, were are asked to believe the winner improved 18 points off of a good effort first out, the runner up went from a 35 to an 80, and the long time maiden that ran 3rd went from a 41 to a 73, and improved a few lengths over his lifetime best as well. The 2 to 1 favorite ran about the same 55 he did last time finishing second as he did getting drubbed on Saturday.

It just doesn't pass the smell test. Keep in mind these are NY breds maidens, and the race was originally carded for turf. Good luck betting those horses off of the figures that will be in the DRF.

[Payson Dave]

I'm not looking to bet any of those horses back...I'm just suggesting that the times may not have solely been due to a souped up track.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Payson Dave

I'm not looking to bet any of those horses back...I'm just suggesting that the times may not have solely been due to a souped up track.

I think CJ made the point as well as possible. I don't think anybody was really using the less than surprising improvement by the second finisher to justify the split variant.

[Payson Dave]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I think CJ made the point as well as possible. I don't think anybody was really using the less than surprising improvement by the second finisher to justify the split variant.

Got it....I'll go back to just doodle-ing on my chalk board for now....Morty was right, he told me that venturing into the smart threads would be a mistake...

[NoLuvForPletch]

What I find most ammusing about beyer figures is that it seems like there isn't 1 figure that is ever assigned without someone challenging it...but they continue to be the most commonly used and accepted figures in handicapping?

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by NoLuvForPletch

What I find most ammusing about beyer figures is that it seems like there isn't 1 figure that is ever assigned without someone challenging it...but they continue to be the most commonly used and accepted figures in handicapping?

Seeing how there are hundreds assigned every week, there are probably about 99% that don't get mentioned.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Seeing how there are hundreds assigned every week, there are probably about 99% that don't get mentioned.

Probably because they're not visible enough to know what type of adjustments/assumptions were made. Most of the people using them aren't sick enough to follow some crappy NYB maidens in their successive starts to determine the validity of another race's figure, like we are.

You know what my biggest beef with them lately is CJ? Too much subjectivity. It's impossible to know the figuremaker's thought process, and it seems multiple splits of the variant on a single day to make them "fit" better is NOT within the principle in which they were initially designed by Beyer. Horses rarely run the same race twice in a row, I think we all know that by now. Why try to finagle the numbers to make it sound like they did? If a horse ran 5 lengths better and it doesn't make a whole lot of sense, why not leave it as such, with a designation that it's a questionable result, and let the handicapper determine the usefulness of the performance and whether or not it's repeatable.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by philcski

If a horse ran 5 lengths better and it doesn't make a whole lot of sense, why not leave it as such, with a designation that it's a questionable result, and let the handicapper determine the usefulness of the performance and whether or not it's repeatable.

I'm a Beyer user but I sort of agree with you, Phil. That's why I don't use t-graphs or rags. Just tell me the speed - i'll do the rest of the handicapping. The BSFs are better than those figs in that respect, though, and since I don't have the time to make my own figs I rely on the Beyer guys to use their best judgment.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by philcski

Probably because they're not visible enough to know what type of adjustments/assumptions were made. Most of the people using them aren't sick enough to follow some crappy NYB maidens in their successive starts to determine the validity of another race's figure, like we are.

You know what my biggest beef with them lately is CJ? Too much subjectivity. It's impossible to know the figuremaker's thought process, and it seems multiple splits of the variant on a single day to make them "fit" better is NOT within the principle in which they were initially designed by Beyer. Horses rarely run the same race twice in a row, I think we all know that by now. Why try to finagle the numbers to make it sound like they did? If a horse ran 5 lengths better and it doesn't make a whole lot of sense, why not leave it as such, with a designation that it's a questionable result, and let the handicapper determine the usefulness of the performance and whether or not it's repeatable.

I agree, but I'm glad, because it isn't all that tough to capitalize on it. Sometimes I'm wrong and the Beyer guy is right, but the public is betting the Beyer, so when I'm right I see it on the tote.

[NoLuvForPletch]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Seeing how there are hundreds assigned every week, there are probably about 99% that don't get mentioned.

you are right...i don't often see people complaining about those donuts they assign the 5000 maiden claimers at pimlico...

my point was simply that it seems as though whenever someone brings up an a specific beyer figure for a horse, you can find someone who will question it, one way or the other

and the reasons for why the figure comes back that way can be spun just like any other statistic...

i have my reservations about using the figures...i seem to have trouble with the theory that the horse ran a 58 last race, how could he have run a 78 today? or, the horse he beat (horse a) ran a 58 last race, so that's the figure he runs, therefore the speed figure for horse b must be calculated off of horse a...

i do however appreciate you taking the time to explain how these figures are calculated most of the time

[CSC]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

There is no doubt he improved, and I am certainly not surprised a second time starter would do so. However, with a Beyer of 85, were are asked to believe the winner improved 18 points off of a good effort first out, the runner up went from a 35 to an 80, and the long time maiden that ran 3rd went from a 41 to a 73, and improved a few lengths over his lifetime best as well. The 2 to 1 favorite ran about the same 55 he did last time finishing second as he did getting drubbed on Saturday.

It just doesn't pass the smell test. Keep in mind these are NY breds maidens, and the race was originally carded for turf. Good luck betting those horses off of the figures that will be in the DRF.

With that being said do you think Casino Drive's beyer is an accurate one one race earlier?

[cmorioles]

I think it is pretty good, maybe a touch high.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

There is no doubt he improved, and I am certainly not surprised a second time starter would do so. However, with a Beyer of 85, were are asked to believe the winner improved 18 points off of a good effort first out, the runner up went from a 35 to an 80, and the long time maiden that ran 3rd went from a 41 to a 73, and improved a few lengths over his lifetime best as well. The 2 to 1 favorite ran about the same 55 he did last time finishing second as he did getting drubbed on Saturday.

It just doesn't pass the smell test. Keep in mind these are NY breds maidens, and the race was originally carded for turf. Good luck betting those horses off of the figures that will be in the DRF.

It was either the above OR Mint Lane getting 5 points (or whatever) higher than he'd run previously? Is that right?

Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh.

The angst of the quantifier.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

It was either the above OR Mint Lane getting 5 points (or whatever) higher than he'd run previously? Is that right?

Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh.

The angst of the quantifier.

Actually, I was only talking about the last race in that post.