Casino Drive Beyer vs Unbridleds Heart Beyer

[Payson Dave]

He is all yours next time....
what I was alluding to was that the time of the race may not have been totally due to a souped up track

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Payson Dave

He is all yours next time....
what I was alluding to was that the time of the race may not have been totally due to a souped up track

He ran a 43, I believe, in his debut.

[Payson Dave]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

He ran a 43, I believe, in his debut.

I don't have the form for Saturday here in front of me...I'll assume you are right....is your point that the improvement was too much to reasonably accept?

[cmorioles]

There is no doubt he improved, and I am certainly not surprised a second time starter would do so. However, with a Beyer of 85, were are asked to believe the winner improved 18 points off of a good effort first out, the runner up went from a 35 to an 80, and the long time maiden that ran 3rd went from a 41 to a 73, and improved a few lengths over his lifetime best as well. The 2 to 1 favorite ran about the same 55 he did last time finishing second as he did getting drubbed on Saturday.

It just doesn't pass the smell test. Keep in mind these are NY breds maidens, and the race was originally carded for turf. Good luck betting those horses off of the figures that will be in the DRF.

[Payson Dave]

I'm not looking to bet any of those horses back...I'm just suggesting that the times may not have solely been due to a souped up track.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Payson Dave

I'm not looking to bet any of those horses back...I'm just suggesting that the times may not have solely been due to a souped up track.

I think CJ made the point as well as possible. I don't think anybody was really using the less than surprising improvement by the second finisher to justify the split variant.

[Payson Dave]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I think CJ made the point as well as possible. I don't think anybody was really using the less than surprising improvement by the second finisher to justify the split variant.

Got it....I'll go back to just doodle-ing on my chalk board for now....Morty was right, he told me that venturing into the smart threads would be a mistake...

[NoLuvForPletch]

What I find most ammusing about beyer figures is that it seems like there isn't 1 figure that is ever assigned without someone challenging it...but they continue to be the most commonly used and accepted figures in handicapping?

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by NoLuvForPletch

What I find most ammusing about beyer figures is that it seems like there isn't 1 figure that is ever assigned without someone challenging it...but they continue to be the most commonly used and accepted figures in handicapping?

Seeing how there are hundreds assigned every week, there are probably about 99% that don't get mentioned.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

There is no doubt he improved, and I am certainly not surprised a second time starter would do so. However, with a Beyer of 85, were are asked to believe the winner improved 18 points off of a good effort first out, the runner up went from a 35 to an 80, and the long time maiden that ran 3rd went from a 41 to a 73, and improved a few lengths over his lifetime best as well. The 2 to 1 favorite ran about the same 55 he did last time finishing second as he did getting drubbed on Saturday.

It just doesn't pass the smell test. Keep in mind these are NY breds maidens, and the race was originally carded for turf. Good luck betting those horses off of the figures that will be in the DRF.

With that being said do you think Casino Drive's beyer is an accurate one one race earlier?

[cmorioles]

I think it is pretty good, maybe a touch high.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

There is no doubt he improved, and I am certainly not surprised a second time starter would do so. However, with a Beyer of 85, were are asked to believe the winner improved 18 points off of a good effort first out, the runner up went from a 35 to an 80, and the long time maiden that ran 3rd went from a 41 to a 73, and improved a few lengths over his lifetime best as well. The 2 to 1 favorite ran about the same 55 he did last time finishing second as he did getting drubbed on Saturday.

It just doesn't pass the smell test. Keep in mind these are NY breds maidens, and the race was originally carded for turf. Good luck betting those horses off of the figures that will be in the DRF.

It was either the above OR Mint Lane getting 5 points (or whatever) higher than he'd run previously? Is that right?

Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh.

The angst of the quantifier.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

It was either the above OR Mint Lane getting 5 points (or whatever) higher than he'd run previously? Is that right?

Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh.

The angst of the quantifier.

Actually, I was only talking about the last race in that post.