Wayne Catalano-Frank Calebrese

Scav · #1 05-12-2008, 10:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

he is the brains of the outfit thats for sure. i sometimes wonder how well they would do without him.

Leving is his name I think, he gets fired like monthly

ArlJim78 · #2 05-12-2008, 10:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

Leving is his name I think, he gets fired like monthly

yes Leving, as you would say its so comedy how many times they have a falling out then get back together.

here are the numbers I have for Catalano this year
Florida 23/65 35.4%
Illinois 12/18 66.7%

brianwspencer · #3 05-12-2008, 10:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

yes Leving, as you would say its so comedy how many times they have a falling out then get back together.

here are the numbers I have for Catalano this year
Florida 23/65 35.4%
Illinois 12/18 66.7%

And by meet's end, the Illinois numbers will be only slightly better than the Florida numbers.

ArlJim78 · #4 05-12-2008, 10:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

And by meet's end, the Illinois numbers will be only slightly better than the Florida numbers.

i'd agree with that, but still you're talking about a lofty batting average.

brianwspencer · #5 05-12-2008, 10:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

i'd agree with that, but still you're talking about a lofty batting average.

It sure is, but like Scav said, I think it has a whole lot more to do with the way they run their operation than anything else.

So many of their wins this year will come from claiming a horse, dropping it, winning, and then losing the horse. You're going to win a better percentage of races when you're putting horses either where they belong, or below where they belong and being willing to lose them to turn a small profit on the purse/claim.

ArlJim78 · #6 05-12-2008, 10:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

It sure is, but like Scav said, I think it has a whole lot more to do with the way they run their operation than anything else.

since they have so much success, why do you think that nobody else has decided to run their operation in the same manner you described?

brianwspencer · #7 05-12-2008, 10:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

since they have so much success, why do you think that nobody else has decided to run their operation in the same manner you described?

They're not the only guys effectively playing the claiming game out there.

Scav · #8 05-12-2008, 10:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

since they have so much success, why do you think that nobody else has decided to run their operation in the same manner you described?

How many people have the capital that Calabrese has? You realize how much that dude is worth right?

2ndly, he don't care about losing money, he just wants to be the big magaffer.....

TheSpyder · #9 05-12-2008, 10:45 AM

What is odd is that even favorites only win 30% of the time. What is the ROI so far? Just seems llike this cannot go on or if it does, I got to believe it's more than great horses and management.

Spyder

MISTERGEE · #10 05-12-2008, 05:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

And by meet's end, the Illinois numbers will be only slightly better than the Florida numbers.

slightly better so then 35-40% is normal, i gotta get a new trainer

brianwspencer · #11 05-12-2008, 05:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MISTERGEE

slightly better so then 35-40% is normal, i gotta get a new trainer

Well that's a different conversation, which I mentioned earlier. If anyone wants to say that no way, no how, does a trainer win at 35% without cheating regardless of class/form/stock, that's one thing, and a conversation that seems totally worth entertaining.

But using this isolated 70+% hot streak as evidence of cheating just doesn't work, because it happens at some point every year when he gets like this, and it's going to level off. It's a statistical outlier, albeit one with plenty of logical explanations that are just as, if not more valid than the knee-jerk cry of cheating. That's all I'm saying, and all I've been saying.

MISTERGEE · #12 05-12-2008, 05:57 PM

I know youve been saying they are place where they can win and that is true I notice they are not afraid to claim for 10-15000 and run for 5000 but are they also jumping way up in there figs off the claim. thats when you wonder. we all know the guys who claim a horse running a 40-50 beyer then all of a sudden 80s or 90s. has that been happening too in this streak?

brianwspencer · #13 05-12-2008, 06:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MISTERGEE

I know youve been saying they are place where they can win and that is true I notice they are not afraid to claim for 10-15000 and run for 5000 but are they also jumping way up in there figs off the claim. thats when you wonder. we all know the guys who claim a horse running a 40-50 beyer then all of a sudden 80s or 90s. has that been happening too in this streak?

I'm going to guess no. I don't know how the races have been coming back, but the vast (and I'm talking probably 8 to 10) majority of his 12 wins have come with horses who were much the best on paper, from a class and figs perspective, and who had previous form and figs more than good enough to beat the average field that shows up for that level. Most of them just needed to run to their regular race (ie, no big jump up needed) to be good enough to win. That's why I think it's brash to jump to conclusions based on his percentage early in the meet when there are so many intangibles that are very well factoring into it.

There are so many things to track about this topic, figs the horses run first time for Cat, figs they run first time away from him factoring in any change in class, etc. It will be interesting to see how the next six weeks play out, for sure.