Wayne Catalano-Frank Calebrese

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by GBBob

you really think they're juicing?

They are going to go 0-8 pretty soon over a weekend and there will be a lot of opportunties to make money...

They do every year. Catalano is firing at a higher rate than normal at the moment, but it's all going to level out. He has streaks like this every year, it's just not as noticeable when it happens mid-meet because his win percentages aren't as high as they are now.

Catalano is firing all his bullets now. It seems pretty clear to me that they got the first condition book, pointed horses for races, and got runners that could come in and dominate early meet claiming races. They enter two in a race, realize that one can win the next day, and they scratch and get two for one. The man puts horses where they can win, and in all honesty, all he's really been doing is winning like crazy at a meet in which the first few weeks are just an ever so slightly improved version of Hawthorne's spring meet.

Just like Cat gets hot every year like this, he goes ice cold every year, and I think it's going to happen sooner than later. Just wait for his 1-for-20 streak that inevitably comes every year.

What gets lost in all of these arguments about the Catalano/Calabrese horses and their insane win percentages is the fact that nearly all of the horses who win look the best on paper going into the race. He doesn't win that often when they look overmatched (Porticipation and Rusty Bucket on Saturday, for example).

You give a guy like Chris Block, who nobody is ever going to accuse of juicing horses, the same stock and the same entries against the same competition that Cat has sent to post so far this year, and Block wins at 70% too.

I'll call the waaaaahmbulance for the rest of you.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

They do every year. Catalano is firing at a higher rate than normal at the moment, but it's all going to level out. He has streaks like this every year, it's just not as noticeable when it happens mid-meet because his win percentages aren't as high as they are now.

Catalano is firing all his bullets now. It seems pretty clear to me that they got the first condition book, pointed horses for races, and got runners that could come in and dominate early meet claiming races. They enter two in a race, realize that one can win the next day, and they scratch and get two for one. The man puts horses where they can win, and in all honesty, all he's really been doing is winning like crazy at a meet in which the first few weeks are just an ever so slightly improved version of Hawthorne's spring meet.

Just like Cat gets hot every year like this, he goes ice cold every year, and I think it's going to happen sooner than later. Just wait for his 1-for-20 streak that inevitably comes every year.

What gets lost in all of these arguments about the Catalano/Calabrese horses and their insane win percentages is the fact that nearly all of the horses who win look the best on paper going into the race. He doesn't win that often when they look overmatched (Porticipation and Rusty Bucket on Saturday, for example).

You give a guy like Chris Block, who nobody is ever going to accuse of juicing horses, the same stock and the same entries against the same competition that Cat has sent to post so far this year, and Block wins at 70% too.

I'll call the waaaaahmbulance for the rest of you.

Easy with the Block comment, he singlehandily owns the Illinois breeding industry because he has the best mares in Illinois.

So if a trainer goes on a losing streak to drop the win % to 30%-35% that automatically clears him of any wrongdoing.

Fantastic logic. D'awesome. I want a whaaamburger happy meal with the MAC eyeliner prize.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

So if a trainer goes on a losing streak to drop the win % to 30%-35% that automatically clears him of any wrongdoing.

Fantastic logic. D'awesome. I want a whaaamburger happy meal with the MAC eyeliner prize.

Right, because your logic is the one where you take one line out of a post and try to make it all that I said.

If you're paying any attention, these horses would be 8-5 regardless of their trainer in about 80% of his wins so far, and he's got fresh stock and recent acquisitions from OP and Kee that fit these conditioned races perfectly. Forget Block, give them to Williamson, Robertson (either one) and they win just as often; hell, give them to Ida Spagnola and they still win at 50%.

Which...you would know if you:
1.) paid any attention
2.) had any desire to actually have a conversation, instead of just going with the usual M.O. of just being a prick and offering nothing of substance.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

Right, because your logic is the one where you take one line out of a post and try to make it all that I said.

If you're paying any attention, these horses would be 8-5 regardless of their trainer in about 80% of his wins so far, and he's got fresh stock and recent acquisitions from OP and Kee that fit these conditioned races perfectly. Forget Block, give them to Williamson, Robertson (either one) and they win just as often; hell, give them to Ida Spagnola and they still win at 50%.

Which...you would know if you:
1.) paid any attention
2.) had any desire to actually have a conversation, instead of just going with the usual M.O. of just being a prick and offering nothing of substance.

Ok, now you are off your rocker.....

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by Scav

Ok, now you are off your rocker.....

Ok, maybe Spagnola is a bit too far, but it's not like Catalano is moving these horses up 20 points and winning races that most trainers WOULDN'T be winning in the first place. The majority of these horses are several lengths faster than their competition, and were several lengths faster then their competition before Catalano even got them.

So when they win by several lengths because they're put in easy spots where they're several lengths the best, it's really hard for me to have sympathy for anyone who wants to complain.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

Ok, maybe Spagnola is a bit too far, but it's not like Catalano is moving these horses up 20 points and winning races that most trainers WOULDN'T be winning in the first place. The majority of these horses are several lengths faster than their competition, and were several lengths faster then their competition before Catalano even got them.

So when they win by several lengths because they're put in easy spots where they're several lengths the best, it's really hard for me to have sympathy for anyone who wants to complain.

You don't have to tell me this, I agree. If I didn't know how they do things, then I would be thinking they are cheating, but I understand the operation. The guy that 'runs the show' is a pretty sharp claiming guy.

I don't think they are saints though, but they aren't Asmussen or Dutrow

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Scav

You don't have to tell me this, I agree. If I didn't know how they do things, then I would be thinking they are cheating, but I understand the operation. The guy that 'runs the show' is a pretty sharp claiming guy.

he is the brains of the outfit thats for sure. i sometimes wonder how well they would do without him.

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

Right, because your logic is the one where you take one line out of a post and try to make it all that I said.

If you're paying any attention, these horses would be 8-5 regardless of their trainer in about 80% of his wins so far, and he's got fresh stock and recent acquisitions from OP and Kee that fit these conditioned races perfectly. Forget Block, give them to Williamson, Robertson (either one) and they win just as often; hell, give them to Ida Spagnola and they still win at 50%.

Which...you would know if you:
1.) paid any attention
2.) had any desire to actually have a conversation, instead of just going with the usual M.O. of just being a prick and offering nothing of substance.

Well I've never been in one of those handicapping qualifiers so I don't have the capacity to be a know-it-all douche yet.

There is no need to go into great detail over this subject because you would have to be a complete and total ****** to believe that the high win percentage is simply by reading a condition book properly and placing horses in the right races. If that was the case, why doesn't it happen when they're in Florida, genius?

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

Well I've never been in one of those handicapping qualifiers so I don't have the capacity to be a know-it-all douche yet.

There is no need to go into great detail over this subject because you would have to be a complete and total ****** to believe that the high win percentage is simply by reading a condition book properly and placing horses in the right races. If that was the case, why doesn't it happen when they're in Florida, genius?

Well that makes one person in the country who thinks that Arlington racing is as classy as Florida racing....genius.

You again (intentionally, I'm sure) overlooked the portion about how the beginning of the Arlington meet is just a slightly classier Hawthorne meet. So either you're not actually watching Arlington and following it to know that, or you're clueless as to the class level of racing in Chicago and the quality of stock up here.

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

Well that makes one person in the country who thinks that Arlington racing is as classy as Florida racing....genius.

You again (intentionally, I'm sure) overlooked the portion about how the beginning of the Arlington meet is just a slightly classier Hawthorne meet. So either you're not actually watching Arlington and following it to know that, or you're clueless as to the class level of racing in Chicago and the quality of stock up here.

Oh yeah I forgot that Gulfstream was a tremendous meet this year with very little bottom level claiming races. STUPID, CLUELESS ME!!!

It's just odd how they win at such an extreme clip in their backyard and how it drops dramatically when they go ANYWHERE else. I guess it's because they're smarter than every owner and trainer in Chicago. That's the only reason.

YET you have the audacity to say give their stock to about any trainer on the Chicago circuit and they would win with at least a 50% clip when the GOD DAMN numbers when their horses are claimed ARE SINGLE DIGITS.

JESUSTAPDANCINGCHRIST PEOPLE ARE ****ING NAIVE

[jwkniska]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

Oh yeah I forgot that Gulfstream was a tremendous meet this year with very little bottom level claiming races. STUPID, CLUELESS ME!!!

It's just odd how they win at such an extreme clip in their backyard and how it drops dramatically when they go ANYWHERE else. I guess it's because they're smarter than every owner and trainer in Chicago. That's the only reason.

YET you have the audacity to say give their stock to about any trainer on the Chicago circuit and they would win with at least a 50% clip when the GOD DAMN numbers when their horses are claimed ARE SINGLE DIGITS.

JESUSTAPDANCINGCHRIST PEOPLE ARE ****ING NAIVE

I'm not sure exactly what their Keeneland/GP numbers are, but they run only certain horses there and they're also always viable to win, when entered.... and normally at a pretty good price too.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

Oh yeah I forgot that Gulfstream was a tremendous meet this year with very little bottom level claiming races. STUPID, CLUELESS ME!!!

It's just odd how they win at such an extreme clip in their backyard and how it drops dramatically when they go ANYWHERE else. I guess it's because they're smarter than every owner and trainer in Chicago. That's the only reason.

YET you have the audacity to say give their stock to about any trainer on the Chicago circuit and they would win with at least a 50% clip when the GOD DAMN numbers when their horses are claimed ARE SINGLE DIGITS.

JESUSTAPDANCINGCHRIST PEOPLE ARE ****ING NAIVE

You go tell me who they're beating that they shouldn't be beating.

So far, they've won, in order:
- An off the turf overnight stake (which eliminated the competitive form of nearly all the field) with a horse who had already won a Grade III over the track
- $10K claimer
- $40K maiden claimer
- $15K claimer
- $7.5K claimer
- $10K claimer
- $14K claimer
- $25K maiden claimer
- $32.5K claimer
- $10K claimer
- AOC $50K claimer
- $25K claimer

Very, very, very tough, as I'm sure you know, to win these types of races with horses coming off very competitive efforts at Keeneland and Oaklawn, when then stacked up against horses coming off of efforts at Hawthorne.

I am totally missing the point...obviously.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

YET you have the audacity to say give their stock to about any trainer on the Chicago circuit and they would win with at least a 50% clip when the GOD DAMN numbers when their horses are claimed ARE SINGLE DIGITS. JESUSTAPDANCINGCHRIST PEOPLE ARE ****ING NAIVE

This is true, but as Brian and others have pointed out, Catalano often drops a horse in class, wins the race, and loses the horse. Then the animal is often moved up in class with new connections in its next start. This is a big reason for the low % when one of their's gets claimed.

I dont know the answer to the question of what exactly they get away with here. Would I be shocked to learn that they have engaged in widespread activities that circumvented the rules? Absolutely not. But I don't think that it is completely outrageous (or naive) to point to their strategy in the claiming game as a BIG factor in their hig win %. Is it the only factor? Perhaps not, but I don't think we really know for sure.

[PSH]

I asked this same question a couple of years ago about the so called "Super Trainers" like Dutrow, Contessa (would also apply today), and the answer i received which makes some sense is that these trainers have so much stock that they generally have multiple horses that they can apply to different races in the condition book. So, they generally have choices on which horses that they can drop down in the claiming races whereby the average trainer generally either has one option or zero....

Given the huge amount of stock that these trainers have gives them a big advantage. Say, "Supertrainer" sees a race for 25K claimers in a certain condition they can choose whether to drop down a 30K, 35K or 40K claimer into that particular spot....

Not saying that something else isn't going on, but the math of sheer numbers gives these guys a huge advantage.

PSH