Casino Drive Beyer vs Unbridleds Heart Beyer

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by MISTERGEE

thank you for not taking me seriously as I was just checking. how can you believe in a split variant in this case when the races not only were run on the same day but also without any significant change in conditions and were even not far apart in time between races?

Just busting your chops a little, don't take it serious...

All it takes is a little work on the track by the maintenance crew. There was a turf race in between, which is usually a prime time for working on the dirt track.

Understanding the horses in any given race is just as important at looking at how all the races relate to each other.

[MISTERGEE]

chops just slightly sore but thanks for the info

[MISTERGEE]

by the way ever see any beyer one turn charts for over a mile?

[blackthroatedwind]

The time of the 10th race backs up the split variant.

[MISTERGEE]

raw beyer of 98 for mdspwt oops

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by MISTERGEE

by the way ever see any beyer one turn charts for over a mile?

No, you have to make them yourself. There are only a few tracks that do it (Bel, Cnl come to mind) so after a season or so it isn't too hard to figure them out.

[MISTERGEE]

first race at bel cheap claimer ran 89 raw so was it that different first to last?

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by MISTERGEE

first race at bel cheap claimer ran 89 raw so was it that different first to last?

The winner of the first had run his last three races with Beyers of 67, 61, and 60 with a last 10 top of 77. Now the last was a win, but he seems to be improving back towards that 77. He beat McCalmont by a nose, and that horse very consistently runs around 70. So I'd project a figure of around 71 for the race, meaning the track was fast by 18 points.

The last race was run with a raw figure of 99, a sorry off the turf contest for NY bred MSWs. The winner had one lifetime race where he ran well and earned a 67. The runner up is a pretty bad animal who ran a 38 in his lone start at 24 to 1. The 3rd place horse is a terrible maiden, Another Hades, destined for Finger Lakes. He is an up and down type in his 10 races, and when he runs well he tops out in the mid 60s.

The winner beat Another Hades by 5 lengths, which is about 12 points. If you assume he ran his best, which is a stretch, the winner projects to improve about 10 points to a 77, which is pretty reasonable. That means the track was 22 points fast, or four points faster than the first race. The Beyer guy changed the variant 6 points, and it makes sense to me because I doubt AH ran his top.

Of course, there are other races in between to consider as well, but this post is long enough already to make the general point.

[Kasept]

CJ..

Thanks for the invaluable explanations... I know you've repeated this material many, many times and it must be drudgerous... But every time you do it, you answer many, many questions for people looking to understood the nuances of figures in general (and BSF's specifically), and many more that have always wanted to ask somewhere but felt intimidated in the setting.

So... thx.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by Cardus

The only race that I saw on Saturday was the Peter Pan. What work was performed on the track that caused a split variant?

I have no idea, I'm in Belgium. I was just saying it was possible. They always do something between races.

[CSC]

Am I the only one here that wasn't totally floored by Casino Drive's race Saturday?

[cmorioles]

I certainly wasn't floored. It was decent in my opinion, nothing more.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

I certainly wasn't floored. It was decent in my opinion, nothing more.

Thanks for the confirmation, I thought I may have been missing something...

[Better Than Honour]

Originally Posted by CSC

Am I the only one here that wasn't totally floored by Casino Drive's race Saturday?

I was. He ran a 101 beyer off a major layoff and he did it in his second career start. The jock was impressed and he made a point that Big Brown will have his hands full. He is going to love 12f. I think a 226 is possible and perhaps Big Brown can go even lower and beat him but I think this horse is going to put up a big time in that race.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Better Than Honour

I was. He ran a 101 beyer off a major layoff and he did it in his second career start. The jock was impressed and he made a point that Big Brown will have his hands full. He is going to love 12f. I think a 226 is possible and perhaps Big Brown can go even lower and beat him but I think this horse is going to put up a big time in that race.

So, you thought he might have said he wasn't impressed and that he couldn't possibly beat Big Brown?

[Payson Dave]

Just a thought here...
Regarding the 10th race at Belmont on Saturday....I was expecting a very good effort from Phobia... he had been training very well on the training track at Saratoga...he demolished a couple of different workmates...he had a very good work from the gate....his gallop outs could have been a little better but nonetheless a much improved performance was expected....and in fact his performance was definately much improved...

His opening qtr in 22.17 and a final qtr in 24 & change with a final time of 1:10.60 for NYbred mdns was fast but the workouts that I saw suggested he was going to run very well

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Payson Dave

Just a thought here...
Regarding the 10th race at Belmont on Saturday....I was expecting a very good effort from Phobia... he had been training very well on the training track at Saratoga...he demolished a couple of different workmates...he had a very good work from the gate....his gallop outs could have been a little better but nonetheless a much improved performance was expected....and in fact his performance was definately much improved...

So, you can't wait to get 4:5 the next time he runs?