Casino Drive Beyer vs Unbridleds Heart Beyer

[RolloTomasi]

I think Beyer and Associates has significant shares in Unbridled's Song as a stallion, while they were burned a couple of years ago when they sold off their shares in A.P. Indy, who was beginning to look like a dud at the time. There is a bit of bias nowadays as far as certain bloodlines go.

Its racing's version of the Cold War.

[MISTERGEE]

were those race 1 or 2 turns? I know that if they were at 2 turns the 1:47 4/5 owuld be 7 pts higher. so even at 1 turn higher still i dont get it

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by MISTERGEE

were those race 1 or 2 turns? I know that if they were at 2 turns the 1:47 4/5 owuld be 7 pts higher. so even at 1 turn higher still i dont get it

How can you be taken seriously if you don't know that those distances at Belmont are around one turn?

The difference should be 5 points on raw figures. If making figures were as simple as using one variant for every race card, life would be easy. Now, I certainly question my share of Beyer figures, but I at least usually understand why the figure given was assigned. Obviously, in the case, the figure maker (Hopkins I assume) split the variant. I haven't looked at the whole card, only the routes, but even if there wasn't a race run after the Peter Pan there is a good basis for splitting the variant.

The reason, quite simply, is Mint Lane. You have a horse that has raced six times, 5 in similarly distanced races. He had run well on three occasions and earned Beyer figures of 86, 88, and 87. All of these were done running loose on the lead, ideal circumstances to record high figures. If you give Casino Drive a 105, you are saying Mint Lane suddenly, while dueling on the lead, rand a 96.

Possible? Sure it is. But what is more likely? With the Beyer of 99 assigned to the winner, Mint Lane gets a 90. I am not saying that is what I will go with, and look forward to going over the whole card soon. The last race will certainly play a factor in my decision.

Like I said, I don't always agree with Beyer or his associates, but it isn't like the figures are done haphazardly and spit out. If you don't like it, you can use BRIS or Equibase figures which are done mechanically. Good luck with that experiment.

Here is a link that contains the Beyer charts for future reference for those interested: http://www.angelfire.com/la2/wahoo/AB.SPRC.html.

[MISTERGEE]

thank you for not taking me seriously as I was just checking. how can you believe in a split variant in this case when the races not only were run on the same day but also without any significant change in conditions and were even not far apart in time between races?

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by MISTERGEE

thank you for not taking me seriously as I was just checking. how can you believe in a split variant in this case when the races not only were run on the same day but also without any significant change in conditions and were even not far apart in time between races?

Just busting your chops a little, don't take it serious...

All it takes is a little work on the track by the maintenance crew. There was a turf race in between, which is usually a prime time for working on the dirt track.

Understanding the horses in any given race is just as important at looking at how all the races relate to each other.

[MISTERGEE]

chops just slightly sore but thanks for the info

[MISTERGEE]

by the way ever see any beyer one turn charts for over a mile?

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by Cardus

The only race that I saw on Saturday was the Peter Pan. What work was performed on the track that caused a split variant?

I have no idea, I'm in Belgium. I was just saying it was possible. They always do something between races.

[CSC]

Am I the only one here that wasn't totally floored by Casino Drive's race Saturday?

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

How can you be taken seriously if you don't know that those distances at Belmont are around one turn?

The difference should be 5 points on raw figures. If making figures were as simple as using one variant for every race card, life would be easy. Now, I certainly question my share of Beyer figures, but I at least usually understand why the figure given was assigned. Obviously, in the case, the figure maker (Hopkins I assume) split the variant. I haven't looked at the whole card, only the routes, but even if there wasn't a race run after the Peter Pan there is a good basis for splitting the variant.

The reason, quite simply, is Mint Lane. You have a horse that has raced six times, 5 in similarly distanced races. He had run well on three occasions and earned Beyer figures of 86, 88, and 87. All of these were done running loose on the lead, ideal circumstances to record high figures. If you give Casino Drive a 105, you are saying Mint Lane suddenly, while dueling on the lead, rand a 96.

Possible? Sure it is. But what is more likely? With the Beyer of 99 assigned to the winner, Mint Lane gets a 90. I am not saying that is what I will go with, and look forward to going over the whole card soon. The last race will certainly play a factor in my decision.

Like I said, I don't always agree with Beyer or his associates, but it isn't like the figures are done haphazardly and spit out. If you don't like it, you can use BRIS or Equibase figures which are done mechanically. Good luck with that experiment.

Here is a link that contains the Beyer charts for future reference for those interested: http://www.angelfire.com/la2/wahoo/AB.SPRC.html.

Bravo!

[CSC]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

How can you be taken seriously if you don't know that those distances at Belmont are around one turn?

The difference should be 5 points on raw figures. If making figures were as simple as using one variant for every race card, life would be easy. Now, I certainly question my share of Beyer figures, but I at least usually understand why the figure given was assigned. Obviously, in the case, the figure maker (Hopkins I assume) split the variant. I haven't looked at the whole card, only the routes, but even if there wasn't a race run after the Peter Pan there is a good basis for splitting the variant.

The reason, quite simply, is Mint Lane. You have a horse that has raced six times, 5 in similarly distanced races. He had run well on three occasions and earned Beyer figures of 86, 88, and 87. All of these were done running loose on the lead, ideal circumstances to record high figures. If you give Casino Drive a 105, you are saying Mint Lane suddenly, while dueling on the lead, rand a 96.

Possible? Sure it is. But what is more likely? With the Beyer of 99 assigned to the winner, Mint Lane gets a 90. I am not saying that is what I will go with, and look forward to going over the whole card soon. The last race will certainly play a factor in my decision.

Like I said, I don't always agree with Beyer or his associates, but it isn't like the figures are done haphazardly and spit out. If you don't like it, you can use BRIS or Equibase figures which are done mechanically. Good luck with that experiment.

Here is a link that contains the Beyer charts for future reference for those interested: http://www.angelfire.com/la2/wahoo/AB.SPRC.html.

Excellent explanation, I know I posed this question this morning. But given that Mint Lane set a contested perhaps quicker than honest pace, and his previous beyers were as stated 86, 88, and 87 in more favorable pace scenarios. Was his 2nd place finish yesterday more flattering due to his lack of competition and if so Casino Drive's race while nice, was not as impressive as first visually thought. Personally I was more impressed by Harlem Rocker's race in the Withers.

[Bobby Fischer]

say Big Brown has to run 9 furlongs @ GP from the 12 post. The beyer doesn't reward the 5 lengths he lost before the race in the draw.
Or say some cheap speed horse gets a 5 length lead at the half and runs an uncontested 6 furlongs in 1:09 = he doesn't get anything deducted for being dealt a beautiful hand.
There is no big brown , there is no cheap horse, all I see is a final time, and a track variant.


well that is the utopian view.

in reality we see projections, we see pre-judging a race or a horse by their ability or class. we see variants made by the evaluation of a horse, as opposed to the track.
All this, and these guys do a great job with the figures and produce a great resource for horseplayers. It's hard to make good figures and these guys do it.

[CSC]

Aren't numbers a subjective guess anyway? I think Steve was right earlier saying "Beyers don't do the actual running" All they offer us is an educated guess on a horses performance.

It is for this reason I am leaning on the side that Casino Drive's race was not as impressive as universally thought of. It was ok a good performance but nothing earth shattering in my eyes.

The main difference we have here is in Harlem Rocker's case as compared with the performance of Casino Drive's, is one horse ran down an already established horse in J BE K who was loose on the lead, with disdainful ease. The other ran down a tiring pace setter who is not in the same class at this point of J BE K. To me the numbers are an accurate reflection of this. No doubt in my mind which performance was better.

[cmorioles]

After what I posted, I'm pretty surprised to see the last race was given an 85. I'd love to hear the thinking on how 11 race maiden Another Hades suddenly ran a career best by 3 lengths while getting beaten rather easily.

This, in a nutshell, is why I make my own numbers. I think the New York guy, for one, makes a lot of mistakes. It will be interesting the track the top three from the last race.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

say Big Brown has to run 9 furlongs @ GP from the 12 post. The beyer doesn't reward the 5 lengths he lost before the race in the draw.
Or say some cheap speed horse gets a 5 length lead at the half and runs an uncontested 6 furlongs in 1:09 = he doesn't get anything deducted for being dealt a beautiful hand.
There is no big brown , there is no cheap horse, all I see is a final time, and a track variant.


well that is the utopian view.

in reality we see projections, we see pre-judging a race or a horse by their ability or class. we see variants made by the evaluation of a horse, as opposed to the track.
All this, and these guys do a great job with the figures and produce a great resource for horseplayers. It's hard to make good figures and these guys do it.

Why does he lose five lengths automatically simply because of his post? Does running style matter? Does Giacomo lose the same amount as Big Brown?

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by CSC

Personally I was more impressed by Harlem Rocker's race in the Withers.

Please expand on this.