my Selection is... a loser!

[Bobby Fischer]

lol F&M boys have voted^^, [not Filly and Mare...?] Florida(hooves) and Michigan(pants)!


This is discussion on horseplaying Selection theory.

These are the basics of a good percentage of my opportunities. The wagering apendix gives an insight into how I calculate value, as well as determine betsize. The pyramid shows another side of the game that also is neglected in discussion.

It's funny, because if I had posted some chess theory about conceding the center and controling the flanks on a chess board, you would have someone contribute their own knowledge of flank openings, maybe a few people would challenge the validity of the theory etc... Maybe someone learns something, and the theory is advanced or disproved. (Most semi-serious chess players care about opening theory.)
In horseracing you get the F&M wiseguys.

I have some examples for pick 3 wagering using the value and edgefactor approach, however the focus here is on Selecting Losing Favorites.

Losing Favorites create the inneficient market situations which are the core of systematic profitable play.

[Bobby Fischer]

a discussion didn't really materialize
so what i am going to post some losing favorites here in this thread. I will name a horse and I will give a reason and maybe a possible wager. See how it works out. Anyone else is welcome to participate. Hopefully this exercise will improve my skill at evaluating losing favorites and possibly help someone else as well.

5/9/2008
Belmont Race 2
#1 Hostile Takeover/Boxer Rebellion
Reason HT is the contender here in the entry(BR hasn't completely disproved himself, but has shown little in 2 starts). With this track that is very sloppy, I think it hurts HostileTakeover. Out of Diesis he doesn't like the slop. Look back and he did decent in a Muddy track 2 back, today very wet and sloppy. He wants to quit in the slop today, and shows maybe a little more route speed than sprint speed-debateable. Adds blinkers here as well.

possible wager? = the 2,6,10,11 ex box looks pretty good right now
also the 2 to win(taggCoa 1sTimeStarter tale of Cat worked in mudd ).
I am having a tough time estimating a chance for the 2
261011box=12
$2 win on #2

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

5/9/2008
Belmont Race 2
#1 Hostile Takeover/Boxer Rebellion

261011box=12
$2 win on #2

Returned 14.20 Wagered 14.00 +0.20

Hostile Takeover didn't solve his sluggish start even with the blinkers, did his usual rush-up and quit as expected in the sloppy stretch. Unfortunately it was enough to harass the 2 who was overtaken by a fairly strong run from the 10. Didn't have time to examine the showpools. =

General Principle= anytime you bet a horse to win and it pays over $3 to show with both favorites in the top 3 then you should have had $ on it to show.

have another losing favorite later at churchill

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I have to be honest man. IMO the reason a discussion didn't materialize

Nobody wants to discuss races, that's the problem. This is an incredibly interesting exercise, at so many different levels, and you never get to see something exactly the same way twice, YET

rather than having a screen full of threads ABOUT RACES

we're left to social and psychological commentary.

Or, worse, unwanted comments.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I sort of agree. I think it kind of depends on the person trying to have the discussions.

Yup

Fischer's problem (and it's not his alone) is that rather than paying attention and learning some of the nuances of the game, he's constantly trying to take (multi-directional) shortcuts, while being firmly in the middle of any discussion concerning these nuances (trips, setups, etc.).

This works real well over at PA, btw.

In any event, the net result is similar to that when I turned on the NBA playoff game on ESPN last night with a FEMALE color analyst: MUTE

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

In any event, the net result is similar to that when I turned on the NBA playoff game on ESPN last night with a FEMALE color analyst: MUTE

She's really bad and shouldn't be doing these games. She did the same thing she did a couple of weeks ago in the Denver/LA game of pretending a game that was over wasn't over. Same scenerio....team down double digits with less than two minutes left, with the losing team having given up, and she's discussing how much they are still in the game. The fans aren't idiots...so why is she lying?

And, yeah, I agree about the race discussions. They're about having opinions and constantly standing in the middle of the road helps nobody and just keeps the person doing it from ever being wrong ( or right ).

[the_fat_man]

I'm actually at the point where I can listen to Sterling and Waldman, so it's not like I'm asking for much. But last night I couldn't deal with it. If ESPN can't get a crew together they should just pass the game on to TNT.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

I'm actually at the point where I can listen to Sterling and Waldman, so it's not like I'm asking for much. But last night I couldn't deal with it. If ESPN can't get a crew together they should just pass the game on to TNT.

The dropoff, in general, with ESPN is huge. Other than Van Gundy they are pretty much just bad. Having Stephen A Smith is a disaster.

[Bobby Fischer]

with plenty of time left >15min
the 1 and 4 are both 9/1 !

this is why i don't post in advance. (just kidding)

nobody wants to bet this race , maybe it is the CD xpressbet thing but hte pool is light.

you guys won't like this but the #6(romans/albarado FTS) is 7/2 odds but 6th choice in the show pool. Could be a late show bet situation if this porportion holds true to about a minute left.

*Chris Paul is maybe the best since Jordan , will have to see him keep this up.

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I have to be honest man. IMO the reason a discussion didn't materialize is it's sort of hard to figure out what you are saying in your first post. What are you looking to get at? That a good way to make money is by identifying bad favorites? Of course, but then how do you play it? I think it all depends and unless you give people more time than a minute before the race, it's hard to form a discussion. I also strongly disagree with your show betting principles, but that's a whole other discussion.

Fair enough.

Yes I am trying to discuss the strategy of using Losing Favorites.

this is a pretty light day for false favorites, but I am trying to generate some.

Next Race Churchill Downs Race 2
PPs http://www.brisnet.com/bris_link/pdf...ans_109725.pdf

Looking at 2 horses here who combined could take some money. The favorite #4 (5/2) Midnight Illusion isn't a bad looking horse at all. Sterling often finds a way to lose. It looks like the horse peaked in february, may or may not dislike CD and is crying for a class drop with blinkers added.

The #1 (7/2) Badger Bret comes off the 2month layoff after completely stopping in the stretch last out. His stride looks fragile and he lacks gameness. There is a slim chance that he needs dirt and the dirt style to use his speed, but there is also maybe an equal chance that dirt is going to be harder on him. mena rides.


The problem I have here is that this race is fairly low quality. A horse like Midnight Illusion could "inherit" the win if nothing wants to try. This isn't a race I want to invest a lot into even with a fair share of the money on low probability horses.
There are 2 first time starters #5,6.
#6 is romans/albarado and has a decent worktab.
you also have the #2 and 3 with the #3Palm Springs coming off a race where it made some headway before quiting at Keeneland.

Hard race to bet. I want to see the tote and look at the prices on #6