Big Brown is no Preakness lock

how many times has harlem rocker gone two turns?

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by pgardn

how many times has harlem rocker gone two turns?

How many times did Bernardini go two turns before the '06 Preakness?

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

How many times did Bernardini go two turns before the '06 Preakness?

This is Bernardini?
We are truly reaching.

[RolloTomasi]

Not that I'd consider him a major contender, but does anyone know whether or not that Godolphin colt that was a close 2nd in the Lafayette (Hatta Fort or something like that) is pointing to the Preakness? Not sure if he's even a Triple Crown nominee.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by pgardn

This is Bernardini?
We are truly reaching.

Does he have to be Bernardini to make the comparison?

And he might be. . .

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Does he have to be Bernardini to make the comparison?

And he might be. . .

He better be really good to beat Big Brown.
If the horse's feet stay in good shape there
is no reason to think he still has big upside.

He might be...
I'll bet his not.

Its an extremely convenient comparison.
Grasping.

The track is muddy at Pimlico and we may
have a brand new type of race. If we want
Big Brown to get beat so badly.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by pgardn

This is Bernardini?
We are truly reaching.

What? What evidence makes you say that it's a reach? He probably isn't as good, but he's done just as much through May 6 as Bernardini had done.

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

What? What evidence makes you say that it's a reach? He probably isn't as good, but he's done just as much through May 6 as Bernardini had done.

Because Bernardini has already proven himself.
We already know what he did at and after the
Preakness.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by pgardn

Because Bernardini has already proven himself.
We already know what he did at and after the
Preakness.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by pgardn

Because Bernardini has already proven himself.
We already know what he did at and after the
Preakness.

Great point. Bernardini won a bunch of Grade I's after the Derby, and Harlem Rocker hasn't. I agree.

You insinuated that it was some major drawback that Harlem Rocker hadn't gone two turns. Well, neither had Bernardini. What Bernardini did in the Preakness and after is irrelevant, because Harlem Rocker hasn't had a chance to do any of those things.

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Great point. Bernardini won a bunch of Grade I's after the Derby, and Harlem Rocker hasn't. I agree.

You insinuated that it was some major drawback that Harlem Rocker hadn't gone two turns. Well, neither had Bernardini. What Bernardini did in the Preakness and after is irrelevant, because Harlem Rocker hasn't had a chance to do any of those things.

All I am saying is Bernardini is a very special case
and the implied comparison is not the greatest. But..

If Harlem Rocker goes on to win the Preakness,
JIm Dandy, Travers, Jockey Club Gold by significant margins,
and then loses while battling on the front end for
much of the race and getting passed by a horse as good
as Invasor in the BCC. That would be cool.

And even though I am not into breeding, Bernadini
was expected to do a lot based on his background,
and he did.

[Better Than Honour]

Originally Posted by pgardn

This is Bernardini?
We are truly reaching.

Actually Bernardini wasn't undefeated going into the Preakness. Harlem Rocker is undefeated. I still think they likely will skip the race but Stronach does own Pimlico if I am correct and Harlem Rocker could still go to the Queens Plate.

[johnny pinwheel]

as long as he is healthy , i think he is a lock. this is from someone that did not like him saturday. so far the preakness field looks even worse. the belmont will be his challange, its usually the down fall of the triple crown hopefuls.

Originally Posted by Better Than Honour

Actually Bernardini wasn't undefeated going into the Preakness. Harlem Rocker is undefeated. I still think they likely will skip the race but Stronach does own Pimlico if I am correct and Harlem Rocker could still go to the Queens Plate.

Maiden voyage yes.
Bernardini had big expectations put on him
mainly because he had two very impressive
races before the Preakness, but it was mainly his breeding imo.
And I think it is probable (although impossible
to say) that he would have beaten a ready (no breakthru)
Barbaro.

Just think its a bit much of a step for Rocker
and a reach. Especially since we have not seen
the best out of Big Brown. Who the heck knows.
Maybe he stays really sore for two weeks. Or the feet.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by pgardn

Maiden voyage yes.
Bernardini had big expectations put on him
mainly because he had two very impressive
races before the Preakness, but it was mainly his breeding imo.
And I think it is probable (although impossible
to say) that he would have beaten a ready (no breakthru)
Barbaro.

Just think its a bit much of a step for Rocker
and a reach. Especially since we have not seen
the best out of Big Brown. Who the heck knows.
Maybe he stays really sore for two weeks. Or the feet.

Bernardini through three starts: fourth at six furlongs (68 Beyer), WON at a one-turn mile (90 Beyer), WON one-turn mile Withers (104 Beyer).

Harlem Rocker through three starts: WON at seven furlongs (81 Beyer), WON at a one-turn mile (97 Beyer), WON one-turn mile Withers (106 Beyer).

Yeah, a real reach. If anything, Harlem Rocker has been faster thus far than Bernardini had been. Not saying he'll turn out to be better or even as good, but your saying it's a reach seems unfounded, and is probably clouded by memories of Bernardini dominating most of the rest of the year.

Originally Posted by pgardn

but it was mainly his breeding imo.

Personally I liked Bernardini's race before the Preakness more.
But if the Beyers are the final say than so be it. Bernardini was
clearly getting better, and was fullfilling breeding expectations.
I remember it well because I did not like him for this very reason.

I dont remember distance limitations highly discussed.

Harlem Rocker. I have seen some mention. But if you want
a horse with a high consistent cruising speed for a mile to tire
Brown that might work.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by pgardn

Personally I liked Bernardini's race before the Preakness more.
But if the Beyers are the final say than so be it. Bernardini was
clearly getting better, and was fullfilling breeding expectations.
I remember it well because I did not like him for this very reason.

I dont remember distance limitations highly discussed.

Harlem Rocker. I have seen some mention. But if you want
a horse with a high consistent cruising speed for a mile to tire
Brown that might work.

So.. Your point is that Bernardini had more hype, so therefore it's a reach?

I'll say this one more time: He probably isn't Bernardini, but based on what he's done, there's nothing that comes even close to saying that definitively.