Big Brown Beyer 109

[herkhorse]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

109 definitely seems a little high to me as well, though as always, cmorioles explains it as well as just about anybody could.

Yes, thanks cmorioles, and a big Happy Birthday too!

[Better Than Honour]

the number needs to be high or you would basically be saying the rest of the field ran in the low 90's. he is a very talented horse that happens to be beating very slow horses for grade 1 caliber 3yr olds.

[Kasept]

1 - BIG BROWN 109 (Previous three Beyers: 106-106-90)
2 - Eight Belles 102 (Previous three Beyers: 99-91-96)
3 - Denis of Cork 97 (Previous three Beyers: 88-96-82)
4 - Tale of Ekati (93)
5 - Recapturetheglory (92)
6 - Colonel John (88)
7 - Anak Nakal (87)
8 - Pyro (87)
9 - Cowboy Cal (86)
10 - Z Fortune (80)
11 - Smooth Air (78)
12 - Visionaire (75)
13 - Court Vision (73)
14 - Z Humor (73)
15 - Cool Coal Man (62)
16 - Bob Black Jack (62)
17 - Gayego (55)
18 - Big Truck (37)
19 - Adriano
20 - Monba



Here are the winning Beyer Speed Figures for last week's stakes races:

*Westchester (Bel): Divine Park (K. McLaughlin/A. Garcia) - 111
*Kentucky Derby (CD): Big Brown (R. Dutrow Jr./K. Desormeaux) - 109
*Churchill Downs (CD): Elite Squadron (J. Baker/J. Velazquez) - 105
*Turf Classic (CD): Einstein - Brz (H. Pitts/R. Albarado) - 103
*Nassau County (Bel): Zaftig (J. Jerkens/J. Chavez) - 101
*Alysheba (CD): Giant Gizmo (R. Frankel/R. Bejarano) - 100

*Inglewood (Hol): El Roblar (R. Mandella/V. Espinoza) - 99
*Humana Distaff (CD): Intangaroo (G. Sherlock/A. Quinonez) - 99
*Bouwerie (Aqu): Northern Nettie (R. Baker/E. Coa) - 99
*Kentucky Oaks (CD): Proud Spell (J. Jones/G. Saez) - 99
*Churchill Distaff Turf Mile (CD): Bayou's Lassie (D. Romans/E. Prado) - 98
*Turf Sprint (CD): Mr. Nightlinger (W. Calhoun/H. Theriot II) - 98
*Sumter (Crc): Imawildandcrazyguy (W. Kaplan/M. Cruz) - 97
*Mamzelle (CD): Just for Keeps (M. Maker/G. Gomez) - 97
*Chris Thomas Turf Classic (Tam): Revved Up (C. Clement/D. Centeno) - 97
*George Royal (Hst): True Metropolitan (T. Jordan/M. Gutierrez) - 97
*La Troienne (CD): Game Face (T. Pletcher/J. Velazquez) - 96
*Queenston (WO): Not Bourbon (R. Attfield/J. Jones) - 96
*Dashing Beauty (Del): Cash's Girl (T. Ritchey/P. Morales) - 95
*Shot of Gold (Cby): Tytus (J. Ness/P. Nolan) - 95
*Jackie Wackie (Crc): Fearless Eagle (E. Plesa Jr./M. Aguilar) - 94
*Louisville (CD): Ginger Punch (R. Frankel/R. Bejarano) - 94
*Tony Gatto Dream Big (Atl): Hesa Big Star (H. Wolfendale/H. Karamanos) - 94
*James B. Tafel Illinois Owners (AP): Lord Carmen (F. Kirby/R. Zimmerman) - 94
*Panhandle (Mnr): Bettin On M J (J. Cartagena/G. Almodovar) - 93
*Prairie Rose (PrM): Sole of the City (R. Brueggemann/I. Karlsson) - 93
*Hawthorne (Hol): Tough Tiz's Sis (B. Baffert/A. Gryder) - 93
*Tellike (EvD): Classify (S. Asmussen/D. Meche) - 92
*Need for Speed (EvD): John Charles (S. Breaux/G. Melancon) - 92
*Route 66 (WRD): Sumfun (W. Calhoun/C. Kimes) - 92
*American Turf (CD): Tizdejavu (G. Fox/G. Gomez) - 92
*Seattle (EmD): Nationhood (M. Chambers/R. Frazier) - 91
*Hasta La Vista (TuP): Mighty Bodacious (D. Vannorsdel/R. Eikleberry) - 90

*Timeless Native (AP): Coragil Cat (G. Geier/D. Sanchez) - 87
*Philmont (Pha): Monsoor (A. Velazquez/A. Prado) - 87
*Prairie Express (PrM): Magnus One (R. Brueggemann/I. Ocampo) - 86
*Naked Greed (Crc): Successful Love (M. Azpurua/D. Coa) - 86
*Music Prince (Bel): Mohegan Sky (L. Rice/A. Garcia) - 85
*Kentucky (CD): Run Away and Hide (R. Werner/R. Albarado) - 85
*Double Delta (AP): Dreaming of Liz (W. Catalano/E. Fires) - 84
*Edgewood (CD): Zee Zee (W. Mott/K. Desormeaux) - 84
*ATBA Sales (TuP): Big Bug Creek (K. Lewis/S. Gann) - 83
*Babst/Palacios Memorial (Beu): Catlaunch (I. Vazquez/I. Gonzalez), Dooze (M. Maker/V. Lebron) (*DEAD-HEAT) - 83
*Hookedonthefeelin (Pim): Dicey D J (L. Rice/A. Napravnik) - 81
*Jack Cole (SrP): Cattleman Prospect (R. Gonzalez/A. Medellin) - 80

[Better Than Honour]

wow. that is a slow group or just very distance challenged.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Better Than Honour

wow. that is a slow group or just very distance challenged.

Your first point was well taken.. that the winner/runner up figs needed to be aligned so that the rest of the front half of the field fell in line. This point is a bit off the mark in that the typically strewn apart Derby field is always going to have stragglers with exceedingly slow numbers. The chart, and in fact most everything about this Derby, ended up pretty 'normal'... from the winner's fig to the running time/splits, etc.. The crop may prove out average or slighly below average once we get to the fall.

There's obviously one colt at the head of the class, but let the turf horses make their move to the grass, the one turners get back to sprinting, and the late developers catch up, and it could still turn out that this bunch is just a solid, typical crop.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Better Than Honour

wow. that is a slow group or just very distance challenged.

There is no 'or' there. They are slow and distance challenged. Big Brown ran the last two furlongs in 25.25 and Denis of Cork was the only one to make up any ground on him and even he was coming home in 24.97. Anak Nakal plodded up for 7th finishing in an atrocious 26.09. The 'closer' Colonel John finished in 27.17 and still managed to finish 6th.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by herkhorse

Yes, thanks cmorioles, and a big Happy Birthday too!

Gracias.

[Kasept]

Weekend Beyer Speed Figures:

Westchester H. (Gr. III): Divine Park 111

Kentucky Derby (Gr. I): Big Brown 109
Churchill Downs S. (Gr. II): Elite Squadron 105
Woodford Reserve (Gr. I): Einstein 103
Nassau County (Gr. III): Zaftig 101
Alysheba (Gr. III): Giant Gizmo 100

Humana Distaff (Gr. I): Intangaroo 99
Kenucky Oaks (Gr. I): Proud Spell 99
Distaff Turf Mile (Gr. III): Bayou's Lassie 98
Aegon Turf (Gr. II): Mr. Nighlinger 98
La Troienne (Gr. III): Game Face 96
Louisville (Gr. II): Ginger Punch 94
Amer. Turf (Gr. III): Tizdejavu 92

Kentucky S. (Gr. II): Run Away and Hide 85

[philcski]

Hmmm... again, another massaged group of Beyer numbers from Friday's Oaks. No way the Giant Gizmo # should be higher than Proud Spell's, on raw time she was 2 lengths faster (unless Giant Gizmo could miraculously run a final 1/16th in 6 seconds flat), and one could argue the track was in even worse shape and slower by the Oaks than the Alysheba.

[HaloWishingwell]

Besides the numbers, without BB the filly dusts this field. Unless something miraculously happens this crop needs to hit the claing ranks ,poly,grass or make up some phony injury and retire fast before they embarrass themselves further.

[10 pnt move up]

So Big Brown had a nightmare trip of ground loss on both turns, close to a solid pace, yet improved 3 points over his Florida Derby effort? Don't buy it, he is a 104-106 type horse running against a really bad bunch.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

So Big Brown had a nightmare trip of ground loss on both turns, close to a solid pace, yet improved 3 points over his Florida Derby effort? Don't buy it, he is a 104-106 type horse running against a really bad bunch.

Ground loss is not relevant in BSF's...

You decided he's a "104-106 type horse' (whatever that is supposed to be) based on 2 dirt track starts? His 2nd and 3rd career starts overall? And he has that fixed ceiling? 104-106? That's not exactly how horses, especially in the spring of their 2 year old year, develop.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by philcski

Hmmm... again, another massaged group of Beyer numbers from Friday's Oaks. No way the Giant Gizmo # should be higher than Proud Spell's, on raw time she was 2 lengths faster (unless Giant Gizmo could miraculously run a final 1/16th in 6 seconds flat), and one could argue the track was in even worse shape and slower by the Oaks than the Alysheba.

I was going to bring that up as well...Proud Spell should have gotten higher than a 99.

[freddymo]

Steve this crop flat out stinks. Big Brown is a very nice colt and certainly has a license to move forward...Although this retarded Preakness isn't goint to do a thing for him.. The colt has raced 4 times unfortunately he has raced against no one so who really knows what he is made of. I suggest we won't no the colts true ability till he try older more accomplished company as he cant race against his best 3 year old peers since they will be in the Acorn Coaching Club and Alabama..lol

[fpsoxfan]

Originally Posted by freddymo

Steve this crop flat out stinks. Big Brown is a very nice colt and certainly has a license to move forward...Although this retarded Preakness isn't goint to do a thing for him.. The colt has raced 4 times unfortunately he has raced against no one so who really knows what he is made of. I suggest we won't no the colts true ability till he try older more accomplished company as he cant race against his best 3 year old peers since they will be in the Acorn Coaching Club and Alabama..lol

I think it's the first time I've heard a race referred to as retarded.

[Kasept]

Fred..

I know.. But.. it always pays to wait until the fall to get a true read. Harlem Rocker, Lt. Ron, KY Bear, other lightly-raced types we haven't seen... give them a chance to race themselves into the picture.

And remember that the unprecocious Mineshafts and Empire Makers should continue to get better as they mature. (Which would be a good thing as it would preclude them returning as older horses, etc...)

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

I was going to bring that up as well...Proud Spell should have gotten higher than a 99.

Sounds like the Beyer guys blew the 2 big races.

[AlexP]

It does seem odd to me that Proud Spell only got a 99, even though I don't know much about Beyers (her race to me was better than Zaftig's, even though I love both fillies, and it would seem she should get at least the same figure...they were relatively close at least). However, I do have one question. Someone was saying with the bad trip and ground loss (which Steve then said doesn't factor in) Big Brown should have gotten a lower figure. To me, if a horse has a bad trip/goes against a bias/etc (those don't all apply to BB obviously), shouldn't his Beyer be higher than a horse that had a great trip/was with the bias/etc?

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by VOL JACK

Sounds like the Beyer guys blew the 2 big races.

For what it's worth, here are Dr Roman's Performance Figures (I have used these the past 10 years as they seem to me much more accurate than Beyer numbers), they do take into account aspects of the trip not considered by Beyer...the lower the number, the better:
2008 Derby:
Big Brown...-68
Eight Belles...-51
Denis of Cork...-34
2007 Derby:
Street Sense...-52
Hard Spun...-49
Curlin...-29
Also, here are the PF's for the last 10 winners:
2008...Big Brown...-68
2007...Street Sense...-52
2006...Barbaro...-60
2005...Giacomo...-48
2004...Smarty Jones...-63
2003...Funny Cide...-60
2002...War Emblem...-61
2001...Monarchos...-75
2000...FuPeg...-57
1999...Charismatic...-48
Obviously, Dr Roman's figures contradict the notion that this is a bad group, except for Monarchos who absolutely freaked in the 2001 Derby, Big Brown stands above recent winners. Time will tell but for a horse to get such a number in only his fourth lifetime start would seem to indicate that his PF's will continue to increase. Every year, I hear "this is a crappy crop of three year olds"...especially after a horse such as Barbaro, Smarty Jones and Big Brown romp in the Derby...of course it's way too early to judge and as Kasept pointed out, many Derby horses were that in name only as their connections caught "Derby fever" as some do every year. Once they sort themselves out, some will be turf horses, sprinters and yes...like almost every year, claimers, while "new faces" will appear to challenge...I look forward to the Preakness and the next wave of contenders. But if he stays healthy...Big Brown will be something special, as a fan, I can only dream of him and Curlin facing off sometime down the road. I know recent history indicates this may never happen but that's the beauty of this sport...the possibilities!

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

zaftig ran very well ..