Triple Crown?

[CSC]

It's really early to talk Triple Crown but it seems to be the obvious question on most people's mind when we have a derby winner.

The major difference what we have this year is the lack of depth of top 3 yr olds as we had in 2007.

So I guess unless someone shows some promise or ascension in their form, Big Brown may be the best chance of a triple crown winner in years.

Then Just one question, why am I not excited?

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

The headline read; "Don't put your money on Big Brown in the Derby"

Ouch!

The horse was not even that tired.
He is the best. He ran tough the whole
way.

Injuries stop him or else something we
have not seen yet:

A horse in front of him and to his outside
while he takes dirt in the face. They just keep
him wide cause he is so damn good.

And on that turn for home he very athletically
powered to the inside once clear. Pretty awesome.

But has yet to be trapped and eat some ground.
Got to see that, waiting to see him react to that.
Just cant envision the set up with this years group.
Should be interesting.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by CSC

It's really early to talk Triple Crown but it seems to be the obvious question on most people's mind when we have a derby winner.

The major difference what we have this year is the lack of depth of top 3 yr olds as we had in 2007.

So I guess unless someone shows some promise or ascension in their form, Big Brown may be the best chance of a triple crown winner in years.

Then Just one question, why am I not excited?

After the Barbaro fiasco, in which TC talk was very strong after a similar Derby performance, I suppose people are resigned to not giving their hopes up anymore.

The difference this year is that there doesn't seem to be any Bernadini (who was still 12-1 in the Preakness nonetheless) on the horizon, unless that Harlem Rocker gets rerouted from Canada.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

After the Barbaro fiasco, in which TC talk was very strong after a similar Derby performance, I suppose people are resigned to not giving their hopes up anymore.

The difference this year is that there doesn't seem to be any Bernadini (who was still 12-1 in the Preakness nonetheless) on the horizon, unless that Harlem Rocker gets rerouted from Canada.

Canadian horses don't usually do well in American Triple Crown events with the exception of Northern Dancer and Sunny's Halo. Alydeed finished second in the Preakness off the Derby Trial, I guess you can make a case that Touch Gold was a product of Canadian racing, ran as a 2 yr old at Woodbine and was by a Canadian Sire and Mare the only exception was he bred in the U.S but it sure looks like there aren't too many new shooters on the horizon. Dahaar and Awesome Again were also late developers.

If Big Brown does go on to win the Triple Crown, the comparisons to Seattle Slew will be inevitible. There was some debate of his greatness due to the question that he didn't have the toughest competition to beat that year either and it was only his race against Affirmed and Exceller that solidified his reputation afterward that respect followed.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by CSC

Canadian horses don't usually do well in American Triple Crown events with the exception of Northern Dancer and Sunny's Halo. Alydeed finished second in the Preakness off the Derby Trial, I guess you can make a case that Touch Gold was a product of Canadian racing, ran as a 2 yr old at Woodbine and was by a Canadian Sire and Mare the only exception was he bred in the U.S but it sure looks like there aren't too many new shooters on the horizon. Dahaar and Awesome Again were also late developers.

Harlem Rocker comes out of Pletcher's barn though (which gives him a better chance of showing up at Pimlico). He isn't a product of Canadian racing.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Harlem Rocker comes out of Pletcher's barn though (which gives him a better chance of showing up at Pimlico). He isn't a product of Canadian racing.

He's an interesting horse and it is hard to guess which route Frank Stronach takes with this horse, since Stronach is a Canadian citizen he may choose the Plate. With Touch Gold he didn't have a choice but with Awesome Again who I think was trained by David Hoffmans at the time he chose the Plate. Maybe this horse turns up at Belmont to break up the party.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by CSC

He's an interesting horse and it is hard to guess which route Frank Stronach takes with this horse, since Stronach is a Canadian citizen he may choose the Plate. With Touch Gold he didn't have a choice but with Awesome Again who I think was trained by David Hoffmans at the time he chose the Plate. Maybe this horse turns up at Belmont to break up the party.

I think Harlem Rocker might be a serious horse but he can't win the Belmont. I'd probably bet him in the Preakness but would still be concerned with the distance. Maybe that half to Jazil and Rags will be good enough. . . Who knows. . . I would just really hate to see these connections win the TC.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I think Harlem Rocker might be a serious horse but he can't win the Belmont. I'd probably bet him in the Preakness but would still be concerned with the distance. Maybe that half to Jazil and Rags will be good enough. . . Who knows. . . I would just really hate to see these connections win the TC.

The Queen's Plate is June 22, so the timing is good if they want to take a shot at the Preakness. Dahaar in comparison last year went onto the Plate, not a bad purse at 1 million dollars. At this point there doesn't seem to be many that offer a challenge to Big Brown, in all fairness I thought he had a pretty wide trip today and still won with ease. Atleast with Harlem Rocker there is an upside from what we saw in the Withers, though to be honest it only came in a 4 horse field. He still has a ways to go.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I think Harlem Rocker might be a serious horse but he can't win the Belmont. I'd probably bet him in the Preakness but would still be concerned with the distance. Maybe that half to Jazil and Rags will be good enough. . . Who knows. . . I would just really hate to see these connections win the TC.

In addition, I don't think distance will be a problem with this horse. It's more inexperience that may his undoing. Easy for me to say, but I'd try the formerly Sir Barton stks now renamed Barbaro stks on Pimlico Preakness Day. See how he comes out of that and then take a shot in the Belmont. Conceivably he could still run in the Plate if they choose to. There's no need to throw him to the wolves this early. Coa said after the race he is still very green.