Triple Crown?

[estreetposse]

Will win the Crown

[the_fat_man]

I hope not man, cause this horse is on his way to putting all the lazy/uniformed handicapper cliches to rest.

1) can't win from the 12 at GP
DONE

2) inexperienced horses can't win the derby ---look at CURLIN
DONE

3) can't win from the 20 hole at CD

DONE

4) inexperienced horses can't win the Preakness on short rest
??

5) ditto; and progeny index says he can't get the distance ---BELMONT
??

I can see all the BIGTIMERS next year (and on) not being able to rely on cliches when they can't get a gauge on a horse. Gonna be brutal, whether BB wins the TC or not. Imagine all that extra work.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

I hope not man, cause this horse is on his way to putting all the lazy/uniformed handicapper cliches to rest.

1) can't win from the 12 at GP
DONE

2) inexperienced horses can't win the derby ---look at CURLIN
DONE

3) can't win from the 20 hole at CD

DONE

4) inexperienced horses can't win the Preakness on short rest
??

5) ditto; and progeny index says he can't get the distance ---BELMONT
??

I can see all the BIGTIMERS next year (and on) not being able to rely on cliches when they can't get a gauge on a horse. Gonna be brutal, whether BB wins the TC or not. Imagine all that extra work.

Were there really a lot of people saying that he "can't win" before the race? Maybe so, but I sure didn't encounter much of it here.
I mean, the horse was both the ML and Post-Time favorite as well, so it wasn't exactly like a lot of people were completely dismissing his chances because of post-position or inexperience.

I just want to make sure that you don't think you were the only person in the country that thought this horse could win. Based on your post, it sure seems like you think that way.

[magic_idol]

Because we dont get times etc down here for american races i could only go on replays on utube etc of past runs & to me Big Browns win was the best run by a long shot & considering he hasnt had anything in his favor on both his races i think he is a contender

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Were there really a lot of people saying that he "can't win" before the race? Maybe so, but I sure didn't encounter much of it here.
I mean, the horse was both the ML and Post-Time favorite as well, so it wasn't exactly like a lot of people were completely dismissing his chances because of post-position or inexperience.

I just want to make sure that you don't think you were the only person in the country that thought this horse could win. Based on your post, it sure seems like you think that way.

You really need to take a step back and think about the content of my post, as it seems I struck a nerve.

The horse might've been the chalk and alot of EXPERTS went as far as saying he had the most ability BUT they stopped short of a full endorsement because of the points mentioned. I'm just tired of hearing these same old tired cliches used when someone doesn't have an opinion. Either you like a horse or you don't. Either you like the odds or you don't. Either you have an opinion or you don't. If you can't analyze the race, sit down. Oh, and the other cliche I forgot to mention: this year's race is not exciting because the horses aren't fast enough. WTF does that mean? 150,000 showed up.

But, for EXPERTS to come out strongly for Colonel John, or Visionaire, or Tale of Ekati, is a ****in joke.



Get my drift?

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

You really need to take a step back and think about the content of my post, as it seems I struck a nerve.

The horse might've been the chalk and alot of EXPERTS went as far as saying he had the most ability BUT they stopped short of a full endorsement because of the points mentioned. I'm just tired of hearing these same old tired cliches used when someone doesn't have an opinion. Either you like a horse or you don't. Either you like the odds or you don't. Either you have an opinion or you don't. If you can't analyze the race, sit down. Oh, and the other cliche I forgot to mention: this year's race is not exciting because the horses aren't fast enough. WTF does that mean? 150,000 showed up.

But, for EXPERTS to come out strongly for Colonel John, or Visionaire, or Tale of Ekati, is a ****in joke.



Get my drift?

sorry, but you are really a huge blowhard.

[Slewstoo]

If he wins the Preakness it's going to be funny when everyone starts saying that he can't get the distance in the Belmont. Who of this crop can exactly? He broke from the 20 hold today and still won by 5, hell he probably ran close to the distance of the Belmont!

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

sorry, but you are really a huge blowhard.

Why is it that the truth always hits hardest?

Do we need to dig up the archives for some of these tired cliches?

Come on, Jim, agree with me.

Vote for more decisiveness by our experts.

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

sorry, but you are really a huge blowhard.

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[miraja2]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

You really need to take a step back and think about the content of my post, as it seems I struck a nerve.

The horse might've been the chalk and alot of EXPERTS went as far as saying he had the most ability BUT they stopped short of a full endorsement because of the points mentioned. I'm just tired of hearing these same old tired cliches used when someone doesn't have an opinion. Either you like a horse or you don't. Either you like the odds or you don't. Either you have an opinion or you don't. If you can't analyze the race, sit down. Oh, and the other cliche I forgot to mention: this year's race is not exciting because the horses aren't fast enough. WTF does that mean? 150,000 showed up.

But, for EXPERTS to come out strongly for Colonel John, or Visionaire, or Tale of Ekati, is a ****in joke.
Get my drift?

If you just mean that people should handicap the race instead of using peculiar and useless "Derby angles," I agree with you.
However, I don't think picking somebody like Colonel John to win this race qualified as a "****ing joke."

I guess I am just confused by why you come on here with a big "I-told-everybody-so" type of post after a big favorite wins a race. You did the same thing after the Florida Derby. I have no problem with people being excited when they pick a winner. They should be.
But the "all the experts are crazy and need to change their ways" attitude just seems a little misplaced and rather strange in this particular situation.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by miraja2

If you just mean that people should handicap the race instead of using peculiar and useless "Derby angles," I agree with you.
However, I don't think picking somebody like Colonel John to win this race qualified as a "****ing joke."

I guess I am just confused by why you come on here with a big "I-told-everybody-so" type of post after a big favorite wins a race. You did the same thing after the Florida Derby. I have no problem with people being excited when they pick a winner. They should be.
But the "all the experts are crazy and need to change their ways" attitude just seems a little misplaced and rather strange in this particular situation.

1) Let's get the facts straight. I didn't come on with an "I-told...." type of post. I'm just pushing for more exact analysis. The races are more interesting than having some expert offer that a horse needs more seasoning because that's the way it's normally done. DUH, if you're a recognized figure in the game, you're supposed to be able to step BEYOND the banal and pick out the standouts that aren't subject to normal methods. THAT's my point.

2) I never offered an opinion on the race, except for a tongue-in-cheek post criticizing that exact same thing happening last year with Curlin.

3) It's not about the odds of the horse, as those making the post 12 cliche argument (and those similar to it) can always revert to the low odds as being some kind of victory. Which equates to saying, 'yeah, I'm banking on banal statistics to make a case, cause I lack the ability to gauge the performance level of a given horse. However, should that horse win at low odds, all bets are off." What exactly does that mean?

I'm sorry but I expect a higher level of analysis here.

[sdjcom]

Hello Handicappers,
Iv'e Heard For Weeks From All The Writers And Pundits How Big Brown Had No Bottom, Beyer Said This , He Hasn't Had A Derby Pick In 20 Yrs. How To Inexperience He Was. I'll Take
Talent Over That Anytime. They All Saw The Same Race I Did In Florida Out Of The 12 Hole And How He Did It. No Horse This Year Has Come Close To This Performance. I Touted Him From The Get-go,
That's Right I'll Blow My Own Horn. Steve Davidowitz Blogs, Chat Rooms And Forums Are For The Fans , Not Professional Writers As You Suggest, Hell You What All The Attention.

[Danzig]

oh, shut the hell up

[johnny pinwheel]

Originally Posted by sdjcom

Hello Handicappers,
Iv'e Heard For Weeks From All The Writers And Pundits How Big Brown Had No Bottom, Beyer Said This , He Hasn't Had A Derby Pick In 20 Yrs. How To Inexperience He Was. I'll Take
Talent Over That Anytime. They All Saw The Same Race I Did In Florida Out Of The 12 Hole And How He Did It. No Horse This Year Has Come Close To This Performance. I Touted Him From The Get-go,
That's Right I'll Blow My Own Horn. Steve Davidowitz Blogs, Chat Rooms And Forums Are For The Fans , Not Professional Writers As You Suggest, Hell You What All The Attention.

wow ... you picked a 5-2 shot in the derby....you are an expert! i lost.... do i care.....hell no i'll bet against the favorite next year too. just the way i bet. but when i win it pays more than 7 dollars.

[CSC]

It's really early to talk Triple Crown but it seems to be the obvious question on most people's mind when we have a derby winner.

The major difference what we have this year is the lack of depth of top 3 yr olds as we had in 2007.

So I guess unless someone shows some promise or ascension in their form, Big Brown may be the best chance of a triple crown winner in years.

Then Just one question, why am I not excited?

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

The headline read; "Don't put your money on Big Brown in the Derby"

Ouch!

The horse was not even that tired.
He is the best. He ran tough the whole
way.

Injuries stop him or else something we
have not seen yet:

A horse in front of him and to his outside
while he takes dirt in the face. They just keep
him wide cause he is so damn good.

And on that turn for home he very athletically
powered to the inside once clear. Pretty awesome.

But has yet to be trapped and eat some ground.
Got to see that, waiting to see him react to that.
Just cant envision the set up with this years group.
Should be interesting.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by CSC

It's really early to talk Triple Crown but it seems to be the obvious question on most people's mind when we have a derby winner.

The major difference what we have this year is the lack of depth of top 3 yr olds as we had in 2007.

So I guess unless someone shows some promise or ascension in their form, Big Brown may be the best chance of a triple crown winner in years.

Then Just one question, why am I not excited?

After the Barbaro fiasco, in which TC talk was very strong after a similar Derby performance, I suppose people are resigned to not giving their hopes up anymore.

The difference this year is that there doesn't seem to be any Bernadini (who was still 12-1 in the Preakness nonetheless) on the horizon, unless that Harlem Rocker gets rerouted from Canada.

[2Hot4TV]

Originally Posted by johnny pinwheel

wow ... you picked a 5-2 shot in the derby....you are an expert! i lost.... do i care.....hell no i'll bet against the favorite next year too. just the way i bet. but when i win it pays more than 7 dollars.

I would change my bets for 7 buck in a second.

[fpsoxfan]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I took a stand against Big Brown and was wrong. But man, do you have a lot of nerve. For over a week now all you have done is write in post after post how you don't like Big Brown. So he wins and you insult people that picked him. Nice....

Good point Hossy. I didn't have the exacta or a thing for that matter.
Congrats to those that did. With that said, I just think this thing is a tank.
Looks real good.