Pick 4 methodology

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by ceejay

I’m publishing this based on a request by SCAV regarding my Pick 4 methodology. .....

....This is really meant to open a discussion. I’ll gladly field questions….

Couple Q's:
1. What are you using for "hold?" By this I mean you are going to be wrong at times on horses that are tosses. What percentage -- or range of percentage -- are you allocating for being wrong on your tosses?

2. Do you ever press on a horse you expect to win at an overlayed price? I didn't see any opportunity for multiple winning tickets in your sample, though I may have missed it.

3. P-3/4 "systems" will work against a bettor, imo, when you go deeper in later legs vs earlier legs. When putting a ticket together, I find FAR greater value in having a single or a "shallow" leg at/near the end of the sequence vs at the beginning. Do you agree/disagree?

[ceejay]

Originally Posted by SentToStud

Couple Q's:
1. What are you using for "hold?" By this I mean you are going to be wrong at times on horses that are tosses. What percentage -- or range of percentage -- are you allocating for being wrong on your tosses?

2. Do you ever press on a horse you expect to win at an overlayed price? I didn't see any opportunity for multiple winning tickets in your sample, though I may have missed it.

3. P-3/4 "systems" will work against a bettor, imo, when you go deeper in later legs vs earlier legs. When putting a ticket together, I find FAR greater value in having a single or a "shallow" leg at/near the end of the sequence vs at the beginning. Do you agree/disagree?

1. I really haven't tracked that in detail. Probably should. The 6 horse in leg D saturday was not a complete toss. I would say 85-90% of the races I bet P4's in I can not toss the winner. That translates to a 52-72% chance of having a shot.

2a. Yes. By upgrading the probabilities on who I think is a live longashot. That's why the 9 in leg A was made 3-1.
2b. Yes, by manipulating the software and limiting the odds range to where you want to overplay.

3. I let the race dictate the bet, so go shallow where I'm more comfortable. But I often go deeper in the first leg to avoid 1 and done. Really more of an emotional thing for me.

[zippyneedsawin]

I find I have more success in P-4's where I go deep early and shallow late. (But that's usually because I have a horse I'm singling in the featured race of the day at a big track).
-I have a question for CJ.. Do you track and compare Pick-4 payouts among different tracks? I have no scientific or hard math to back this up, but it seems like Pick-4 payouts are usually lower than I expect them to be at NYRA tracks versus others(more often than they should.) Do you find some tracks have better payouts than others for pick-4's (in general)?

[ceejay]

I haven't really noticed that but when I play them it's usually @ KY-NYRA-SoCal.

[dellinger63]

I QUIT!! Newspaper and birthday #'s from now on. $5 to show on the 5 in the 1rst from the money saved not getting the form.

Originally Posted by dellinger63

I QUIT!! Newspaper and birthday #'s from now on. $5 to show on the 5 in the 1rst from the money saved not getting the form.

Dellinger did you not hit some giant pik bet? Bout a year ago?

[dellinger63]

yea and it was a pic 6 at Saratoga. Another big one was on a BC pic 4 but if I had this damn chart I would have had it 30 times. 300K may still be around the 10K is long gone. LOL