The pick 3/4 bets aren't perfect.They are I.M.O. the best bets out there.You are playing 3 or 4 races without paying 15-20 % take out on each race.You pay 14-25% one time.If you can't see the value in that,then I have learned that nothing I can write will change your mind.There is a flaw in the p3/p4 bets,and that is what Pgrdn is referring to when he says you don't know what the payouts will be.See,if somebody wants to put 15-20 k on their hidden horse it is difficult to do that without it impacting the win odds severely.It depends on where the race is etc.,but I will use an example of a last race on a Sunday at Hollywood Park.I think the horse paid about $38 to win.The win pool was only about 170-180k or so.They couldn't put 20k into that pool.I think I calculated that they would only get 6 or 7/1 if they did that.So,they left the win pool alone(hence $38 for a horse who was really ready to win in his 1st start,and even with a bad start,and chasing a lone speed favorite.)The late double,and late pick 3 also paid about what you would expect for a combo with a $38 horse in it.However,the pick 4 paid less than half what it really should have paid.The horse paid off like about a 9-1or a 10-1 in the late pick4.This is where they put their 20k.They got paid 9-1 to 10-1 for their 20k versus 6-1 or so(if they had put the money in the win pool.)They need a pool that has like 400k in it.Their payoff is less impacted by their 20k in that pool.It happens,but it doesn't happen enough to make the p3/p4 a bad bet.It is a way to hide money though.It is not a perfect bet.It is the best bet they offer though(even with the risk that somebody is hiding a large amount of money in that pool.)
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08-06-2006, 11:28 PM
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