Well I watched just about every race run at santa anita and I do concur that the meet were almost run on two different surfaces, thought I would disagree a bit as even though it was fast I felt it played to closers from beginning to end.
What we did see was this trend of horses opening clear leads and getting collared late, even when those horses looked well beaten. Two examples were Mozante's last win and Colonel John. Both horses had trouble, both horses had to make up 3 or so lengths in the final 1/16, and both cases it looked to me like it was a late surge that won the race. Those are stake races but I saw this play out with great regularity. In dirt races a horse like Gayego opens up three lengths at the end of the race he is not going to get beat. So look to play against horses who had these type of finishes and bet the horses who were collared late, especially on dirt.
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04-28-2008, 09:48 PM
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