Santa Anita's Surface

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by justindew

I have never heard anyone suggest that Tiznow is a synthetics sire only. Merely that his offspring win at a disproportionately high rate on synthetics.

I guess the fact that Tiznows run predominantly in California doesn't have anything to do with that impression.

[SlewsMyHero]

I watched the Santa Anita meeting very closely. It was almost like 2 different meetings. The original Cushion Track got to be ridiculously fast and did for the most part favor early type in both sprints and routes. This was the track that Bob Black Jack set the 6 furlong world record on. About a week after the Sunshine Millions toward the end of January, the Cushion track was mostly scraped up and the Pro Ride ingredients mixed it in. It was still very fast and speed favoring initially.

There was a point about a week after the Pro Ride fix that the jocks complained about the track mid-card. Between races, the track maintenance crew deeply harrowed the track, and from that point on, it became a track that I feel was biased toward horses that finished in the middle of the track. Horses that rallied up the rail had no shot. Early types still won there share, but the horses that rallied wide had a big advantage. Colonel John sat just off a very slow pace in the Sham and finished well in at least the 3 or 4 path. El Gata Malo rallied outside of him, but had to come from further back. Colonel John got the rallying outside trip in the SA Derby to just get up. Bias or not, I think Colonel John will win the Derby. He's got experience and he's battle tested, having had to dig in to beat El Gato Malo in the Sham, and having to weave through traffic and make a huge rally to get up in the SA Derby. He's bred to love the distance and the surface at CD.

Big Brown may be fast, but he's inexperienced, and hasn't had to look another horse in the eye down the lane. I also question his breeding for the distance. In my opinion, he's a bet against in a 20 horse field.

[10 pnt move up]

Well I watched just about every race run at santa anita and I do concur that the meet were almost run on two different surfaces, thought I would disagree a bit as even though it was fast I felt it played to closers from beginning to end.

What we did see was this trend of horses opening clear leads and getting collared late, even when those horses looked well beaten. Two examples were Mozante's last win and Colonel John. Both horses had trouble, both horses had to make up 3 or so lengths in the final 1/16, and both cases it looked to me like it was a late surge that won the race. Those are stake races but I saw this play out with great regularity. In dirt races a horse like Gayego opens up three lengths at the end of the race he is not going to get beat. So look to play against horses who had these type of finishes and bet the horses who were collared late, especially on dirt.