Pick 4 methodology

Originally Posted by ceejay

I couldn't agree less. at 25% takeout that's 6.25%/race in P4. Please give me any reasoning that shows they are bad bets.

I will give you one. I have given others, its a big list.

1. You have no flippin idea the size of the pool. Therefore you have no flippin idea what the reward will be. Example. I won a pik 3 this year that paid more than the same overlapped pik 4. Did anybody know there was a discrepancy in the pool so they could bet it? Hell no. There is no risk v. reward determination because you do not know the reward.

If you want more I will go on at a later time. Got lots more on the pik bets. By the way, lets not get this confused. A pik 4 bet is ONE bet on 4 races. Dont falsely assume someone is going to play the same 4 races separately, as you have already done in your example. You have already made a huge ASSUMPTION that someone is forced to play those 4 races.

And dont think you can accurately estimate the payout by taking the odds of the 4 winners and multiplying them.

And yes I occasionally play pik bets because it is FUN and challenging to arrange a ticket that is not too costly and has a chance.

[1st_Saturday_in_May]

Wow, thats deep, lol! Seems like you hit quite a bit and if you've got it down then congrats. On another note I'm 1 - 1 betting Pick 3's in my life ... hit the early one at Mountaineer today, lol. I just love the way that sounds talking to guys who've been betting that kind of **** for years and daily...

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by pgardn

I will give you one. I have given others, its a big list.

1. You have no flippin idea the size of the pool. Therefore you have no flippin idea what the reward will be. Example. I won a pik 3 this year that paid more than the same overlapped pik 4. Did anybody know there was a discrepancy in the pool so they could bet it? Hell no. There is no risk v. reward determination because you do not know the reward.

If you want more I will go on at a later time. Got lots more on the pik bets. By the way, lets not get this confused. A pik 4 bet is ONE bet on 4 races. Dont falsely assume someone is going to play the same 4 races separately, as you have already done in your example. You have already made a huge ASSUMPTION that someone is forced to play those 4 races.

And dont think you can accurately estimate the payout by taking the odds of the 4 winners and multiplying them.

And yes I occasionally play pik bets because it is FUN and challenging to arrange a ticket that is not too costly and has a chance.

pgardn, do you really have no idea about the pool sizes of PK3's and 4's? The pool sizes are published daily in the results charts so you can get an idea of the size of the pools for the tracks you like to play. at Saratoga they are in the range of $250K to $400K or more. 3's and 4' offer great rewards. take a look at the two pick fours at Toga today.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

The pick 3/4 bets aren't perfect.They are I.M.O. the best bets out there.You are playing 3 or 4 races without paying 15-20 % take out on each race.You pay 14-25% one time.If you can't see the value in that,then I have learned that nothing I can write will change your mind.There is a flaw in the p3/p4 bets,and that is what Pgrdn is referring to when he says you don't know what the payouts will be.See,if somebody wants to put 15-20 k on their hidden horse it is difficult to do that without it impacting the win odds severely.It depends on where the race is etc.,but I will use an example of a last race on a Sunday at Hollywood Park.I think the horse paid about $38 to win.The win pool was only about 170-180k or so.They couldn't put 20k into that pool.I think I calculated that they would only get 6 or 7/1 if they did that.So,they left the win pool alone(hence $38 for a horse who was really ready to win in his 1st start,and even with a bad start,and chasing a lone speed favorite.)The late double,and late pick 3 also paid about what you would expect for a combo with a $38 horse in it.However,the pick 4 paid less than half what it really should have paid.The horse paid off like about a 9-1or a 10-1 in the late pick4.This is where they put their 20k.They got paid 9-1 to 10-1 for their 20k versus 6-1 or so(if they had put the money in the win pool.)They need a pool that has like 400k in it.Their payoff is less impacted by their 20k in that pool.It happens,but it doesn't happen enough to make the p3/p4 a bad bet.It is a way to hide money though.It is not a perfect bet.It is the best bet they offer though(even with the risk that somebody is hiding a large amount of money in that pool.)

[ceejay]

Originally Posted by pgardn

I will give you one. I have given others, its a big list.

1. You have no flippin idea the size of the pool. Therefore you have no flippin idea what the reward will be. Example. I won a pik 3 this year that paid more than the same overlapped pik 4. Did anybody know there was a discrepancy in the pool so they could bet it? Hell no. There is no risk v. reward determination because you do not know the reward.

If you want more I will go on at a later time. Got lots more on the pik bets. By the way, lets not get this confused. A pik 4 bet is ONE bet on 4 races. Dont falsely assume someone is going to play the same 4 races separately, as you have already done in your example. You have already made a huge ASSUMPTION that someone is forced to play those 4 races.

And dont think you can accurately estimate the payout by taking the odds of the 4 winners and multiplying them.

And yes I occasionally play pik bets because it is FUN and challenging to arrange a ticket that is not too costly and has a chance.

Pool size: history gives us a pretty good idea.
Payouts ARE unknown. Experience is a guide. Experience tells me that I want no more than 2 favorites or the payout will disappoiont. If you can accurately predict downstream favoritism-- which I think I can, this software can help avoid low payouts.
I have never assumed that you have to play any race. I only play P4's that have races that my data tells me I can handicap. I avoid them if there are maiden races (which I suck at) or I can't figure one race out. My general guide is to limit the number of runners seriously used in a race to (starters/2)-1.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by pgardn

I will give you one. I have given others, its a big list.

1. You have no flippin idea the size of the pool. Therefore you have no flippin idea what the reward will be. Example. I won a pik 3 this year that paid more than the same overlapped pik 4. Did anybody know there was a discrepancy in the pool so they could bet it? Hell no. There is no risk v. reward determination because you do not know the reward.

If you want more I will go on at a later time. Got lots more on the pik bets. By the way, lets not get this confused. A pik 4 bet is ONE bet on 4 races. Dont falsely assume someone is going to play the same 4 races separately, as you have already done in your example. You have already made a huge ASSUMPTION that someone is forced to play those 4 races.

And dont think you can accurately estimate the payout by taking the odds of the 4 winners and multiplying them.

And yes I occasionally play pik bets because it is FUN and challenging to arrange a ticket that is not too costly and has a chance.

Yo Pat, you know the pool size, I always look with 3MTP to see if it is worth playing. Youbet has an exotics window that shows you how much is in each pool and most CHDN tracks and some others show how much is in the pools periodically leading up to post time

Originally Posted by Scav

Yo Pat, you know the pool size, I always look with 3MTP to see if it is worth playing. Youbet has an exotics window that shows you how much is in each pool and most CHDN tracks and some others show how much is in the pools periodically leading up to post time

But you do not know how many people have the same horses as you therefore you have no idea how the pool will be split up, therefore no idea about the reward. On a win bet you get a very close approximation, its right on the tote. Same with an exacta flashed up all the time. You can also even make some very good assumptions with place bets. I think win and place bets are vastly underplayed myself. They are a bore for many.

And again. When you play pik bets you are forced to play races in a sequence. You cannot compare this with going to the track and making 3 diff. win bets on races that are not in sequence. A bettor gets to choose exactly which races he sees an advantage in ex. the 2nd, 7th and 9th are the only 3 worth betting. You cannot compare that to well I think the rolling pick 3 at this track would be best suited by playing the 7th 8th and 9th. You cannot compare the examples given above. And if you do, it is invalid.

I have even more. I will stop. We have done this before in much longer discussions. I began this only as a way of helping people see what I see as multiple fallacies about these races. Just to trying and help. And I will again state I see a great deal of entertainment associated with these types of wagers. And entertainment is really what the game is about.

[ceejay]

I hope lots of players view this as "for entertainment only." Those $32 to 64 tickets are what puts the value there for those of us who take the P4 seriously.

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by ceejay

I hope lots of players view this as "for entertainment only." Those $32 to 64 tickets are what puts the value there for those of us who take the P4 seriously.

That's a cheap a ss shot there. You open your thread with your "let's discuss" line, then toss out the snide "dead money" reference.

I'm not sure you've accomplished anything other than paying a couple hundred dollars for someone's mother ****ing Excel formula.

You certainly didn't answer my question on hold with any degree of the "expertise" you proclaim to have.

Go back to your ****ing spreadsheet.

[ceejay]

Originally Posted by SentToStud

That's a cheap a ss shot there. You open your thread with your "let's discuss" line, then toss out the snide "dead money" reference.

I'm not sure you've accomplished anything other than paying a couple hundred dollars for someone's mother ****ing Excel formula.

You certainly didn't answer my question on hold with any degree of the "expertise" you proclaim to have.

Go back to your ****ing spreadsheet.

Sorry, I didn't mean to offend. I don't think I claimed expertise, but what questions did I not answer?

Now on to "dead money." Your words, not mine. I'm not alone in those thoughts. I refer you to pages 124-126 of Steve Crist's new book.
"The single biggest mistake most pick 4 players make is trying to hit it with the same level of investment they put into a pick 3."
"Playing the Pick 4 with an inadequate bankroll is worse than never playing the bet at all."
"...simply making out multiple tickets will give you a big leg up on the competition in the pick 4 these days."

I spose my point is that I don't believe in doing anything undercapitalized. The reason that I don't play P6's alone very often is that the total investment needed to give it it a fair run is past my "choke point."

Oh by the way, I started this thread on request: not my idea. I don't sell the spreadsheet so I don't care if you buy it!