4/26 (HOL): Mervyn LeRoy (Gr. II)

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

Certainly he is the horse to beat but a few things I consider is

1) I am going to be a against horses who seemed beaten at Santa Anita yet exploded late to win

2) The barn that this horse hails from tends to not repeat those explosive efforts next out, and the tend to go off form mysteriously at low odds

3) he will be way overbet based on 1 and 2 in my eyes.

Valid points, but historically, at least with his claimers, it seems like Mitchell's "improvements" hold for 3 or 4 races. I'm also guessing that you can draw a line through the Strub races that could have been anomalies given the condition of the track at the time and the lopsided pace scenarios in both. Considering that Tiago was in a similar boat, and ended up moving back towards top class status away from Santa Anita, I think its a reasonable assumption.

Also, and I'm probably wrong, but I get the feeling that Surf Cat will be a strong favorite here.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Valid points, but historically, at least with his claimers, it seems like Mitchell's "improvements" hold for 3 or 4 races. I'm also guessing that you can draw a line through the Strub races that could have been anomalies given the condition of the track at the time and the lopsided pace scenarios in both. Considering that Tiago was in a similar boat, and ended up moving back towards top class status away from Santa Anita, I think its a reasonable assumption.

Also, and I'm probably wrong, but I get the feeling that Surf Cat will be a strong favorite here.

Not a redboard (hope not anyway) because I've long been on record on here as being a huge Surf Cat fan but.......I don't see any reason why he shouldn't have been a heavy favorite here.

[10 pnt move up]

I played golf instead but its hard to beleive mozante was 7/5. It shows there just is alot of players who are struggling to grasp the different synthetic surfaces. Watch Mozante's run at santa anita, watch Colonal John, they are the same race, who wants to bet that horse at 4/1 or so next saturday?

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

I played golf instead but its hard to beleive mozante was 7/5. It shows there just is alot of players who are struggling to grasp the different synthetic surfaces. Watch Mozante's run at santa anita, watch Colonal John, they are the same race, who wants to bet that horse at 4/1 or so next saturday?

Well Monzante looked like an up-and-comer at Hollywood last December when winning an allowance event, so I don't think too many were worried about him handling the surface (though I don't know if his speed figure for that race was competitive for a graded stakes).

I think the 2nd of your points (Mitchell horse off a huge effort) was at play here.

Either way, I was dead wrong.

[10 pnt move up]

These were better horses then that race at last November but I am keeping track and its happened at least 3 times by my notes that horses who were beaten yet exploded with a furlong or so to go to win. I mean on dirt when Neko Bay opens up by 4 with a furlong to go you just dont get caught like he did, so in a way I think it was a illegitimate win. I think we will see this continuous Del Mar/Santa Anita form trends when they go on dirt to Hollywood or ship. Another example was Georgie Boy catching Gayego, on dirt or another surface he never does, yet at Santa Anita it looks spectacular for the winner and makes the loser look vulnerable. Its a play I am going to keep making. hope that long winded response expands on my position.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

These were better horses then that race at last November but I am keeping track and its happened at least 3 times by my notes that horses who were beaten yet exploded with a furlong or so to go to win. I mean on dirt when Neko Bay opens up by 4 with a furlong to go you just dont get caught like he did, so in a way I think it was a illegitimate win. I think we will see this continuous Del Mar/Santa Anita form trends when they go on dirt to Hollywood or ship. Another example was Georgie Boy catching Gayego, on dirt or another surface he never does, yet at Santa Anita it looks spectacular for the winner and makes the loser look vulnerable. Its a play I am going to keep making. hope that long winded response expands on my position.

Yeah, I see your point. Though, personally I thought Neko Bay moved way too soon in the Santana Mile and in previous races had made big turn moves only to hang or look green down the lane.

It will also be interesting to follow all those Gaines horses that ran lights out during that 12 for 17 streak at Santa Anita. A couple of them bombed today on the Gold Rush card, though she had some maiden run off by 6 (not sure if he was a first timer or not).