Eight Belles & Proud Spell

[johnny pinwheel]

Originally Posted by Hickory Hill Hoff

Both should go in the Oaks......this is crazy!

i agree. let the folks waste time speculating. if you think either one of these horses has a shot . well, good luck to ya ! it happens like once a generation. and many times ends in disaster for the filly . and these 2 are not even that good!

[Linny]

These fillies may not be much bit they don't have to beat much either. I think that alot of the problems could be solved by adding AE's.

Long term I'd prefer the weighting of earnings so 3yo and route earnings count more than 2yo or sprint earnings. As the threshold has gone up (about $200k this year) we are seeing colts without a win this year (Z Humor, Anak Nakal) keeping out horses like Big Truck (G3 win) Bob Black Jack (2nd in G1SA Derby) etc. I'm not crazy about Bob Black Jack but he was 3rd in the San Felipe and 2nd in the SA Derby. That's not dreadful yet he's still outside. (I won't go near DoC because I agree with his owner that serious errors were made. He should be in.)

The rising "minimum" graded earnings may force trainers to actually race these colts in the future. Case in poiunt: Atoned. I was not a fan of this horse last year but he ran well in the Remsen after nearly falling. Pletcher maps out a 2 race schedule for him despite the fact that he had only $40k in 2yo graded earnings. The first race is the TBD which was already the announced return race for War Pass. Not being able to foresee WP's debacle, this race as the look of a "give him a race" effort, hoping for 2nd and about $60k. WP flounders but Atoned runs well for 2nd any how to a horse who was well back of him in the Remsen. Atoned is bred for a route and may have needed the return, after all I doubt Todd had him cranked hard for a race in which he figured he was running for place. His next stop is the quirky Hawthorne track. Kind to speed and favorable to certain horses for course the closing Atoned has no shot. Like DoC's folks they probably figured that the Ill. Derby was the easiest of that round of preps and with $500k up for grabs it looked like a good spot. WRONG. Now, Recapuretheglory is in you Atoned is out, way out. Had they run third in the Wood he'd have earned $45k more. Out of desperation they plunk him in the Lexington 2 weeks later. He hates the Poly and since Todd's horses are coddled and he's not used to running on 2 weeks rest.
I am not saying he was the Derby winner and was kept out but Atoned had the look of a colt who could have developed more. Why wait for the TBD with a colt who carries so little in 2yo earnings? Why plot a 2 race course where one stumble may cost you a Derby berth? He went 9f at 2 so why not run in allowance prep and then a GP stakes like the FOY? Why not prep in a graded race like the Hutchison? I think so many trainers are so focused on having a fresh horse for the Derby that they forget tp do what it takes to get them in the gate.

[SniperSB23]

If they are going to stick with graded earnings then why bother with the random order for selection of Derby posts? Just go straight down the list giving the top horse on the earnings list first pick of post. It would encourage everyone to race their horses more and take advantage of races like the Hutcheson or Swale to get some extra earnings and assure the best horses don't get compromised by crappy post positions.

[Cannon Shell]

Holy ****...ideas that make sense

[MisterB]

I prefer shooting fingers, but you must have all fingers attached to qualify.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Linny

These fillies may not be much bit they don't have to beat much either. I think that alot of the problems could be solved by adding AE's.

Long term I'd prefer the weighting of earnings so 3yo and route earnings count more than 2yo or sprint earnings. As the threshold has gone up (about $200k this year) we are seeing colts without a win this year (Z Humor, Anak Nakal) keeping out horses like Big Truck (G3 win) Bob Black Jack (2nd in G1SA Derby) etc. I'm not crazy about Bob Black Jack but he was 3rd in the San Felipe and 2nd in the SA Derby. That's not dreadful yet he's still outside. (I won't go near DoC because I agree with his owner that serious errors were made. He should be in.)

The rising "minimum" graded earnings may force trainers to actually race these colts in the future. Case in poiunt: Atoned. I was not a fan of this horse last year but he ran well in the Remsen after nearly falling. Pletcher maps out a 2 race schedule for him despite the fact that he had only $40k in 2yo graded earnings. The first race is the TBD which was already the announced return race for War Pass. Not being able to foresee WP's debacle, this race as the look of a "give him a race" effort, hoping for 2nd and about $60k. WP flounders but Atoned runs well for 2nd any how to a horse who was well back of him in the Remsen. Atoned is bred for a route and may have needed the return, after all I doubt Todd had him cranked hard for a race in which he figured he was running for place. His next stop is the quirky Hawthorne track. Kind to speed and favorable to certain horses for course the closing Atoned has no shot. Like DoC's folks they probably figured that the Ill. Derby was the easiest of that round of preps and with $500k up for grabs it looked like a good spot. WRONG. Now, Recapuretheglory is in you Atoned is out, way out. Had they run third in the Wood he'd have earned $45k more. Out of desperation they plunk him in the Lexington 2 weeks later. He hates the Poly and since Todd's horses are coddled and he's not used to running on 2 weeks rest.
I am not saying he was the Derby winner and was kept out but Atoned had the look of a colt who could have developed more. Why wait for the TBD with a colt who carries so little in 2yo earnings? Why plot a 2 race course where one stumble may cost you a Derby berth? He went 9f at 2 so why not run in allowance prep and then a GP stakes like the FOY? Why not prep in a graded race like the Hutchison? I think so many trainers are so focused on having a fresh horse for the Derby that they forget tp do what it takes to get them in the gate.

it's why i have said more than once that 2 yo earnings shouldn't count. if filly restricted races shouldn't count according to some, then no 2 yo race should count. the race is for three year olds, so the best THREE yo's should be the ones getting in--not the ones who were best the year before.

[cakes44]

There's always going to be horses that don't belong if you base it on earnings. If it was changed to to 3-year-old earnings, how long do you think it would be before Delta Downs moves the Jackpot to a month later?

[lemoncrush]

eight belles hasn't been further than 1-16, nor has she faced any of the other top 5 or 6 fillies in her class (Pure Clan perhaps is the only one with serious credentials).
She could turn out to be an incredible filly, but saying she absolutley belongs in the derby after beating up on small and suspect fields at Oaklawn and Fairgrounds this winter, it's a bit of a stretch.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by lemoncrush

eight belles hasn't been further than 1-16, nor has she faced any of the other top 5 or 6 fillies in her class (Pure Clan perhaps is the only one with serious credentials).
She could turn out to be an incredible filly, but saying she absolutley belongs in the derby after beating up on small and suspect fields at Oaklawn and Fairgrounds this winter, it's a bit of a stretch.

Her breeding doesnt exactly scream 1 1/4 either

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by lemoncrush

eight belles hasn't been further than 1-16, nor has she faced any of the other top 5 or 6 fillies in her class (Pure Clan perhaps is the only one with serious credentials).
She could turn out to be an incredible filly, but saying she absolutley belongs in the derby after beating up on small and suspect fields at Oaklawn and Fairgrounds this winter, it's a bit of a stretch.

The fact that NO ONE in the entire Derby field has a higher average last four Beyers than her says to me she wouldn't be out of place in the Derby at all. If she were male she'd be the third or fourth favorite. Plus, has anyone in this field beat a horse coming off a 100+ Beyer as a 3yo? Eight Belles has done that too.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by cakes44

There's always going to be horses that don't belong if you base it on earnings. If it was changed to to 3-year-old earnings, how long do you think it would be before Delta Downs moves the Jackpot to a month later?

that's fine, move what you need to move if you wish. i believe they'd lose their grading then, since the conditions of the race would change.

[dylbert]

Originally Posted by cakes44

There's always going to be horses that don't belong if you base it on earnings. If it was changed to to 3-year-old earnings, how long do you think it would be before Delta Downs moves the Jackpot to a month later?

B-I-N-G-O!!! Boyd Gaming moves race to first week in January and becomes key prep race. Yes, they would have to wait for grading, but it would come. I wondered how long it would take someone to post this fact. See you in Vinton!!!

If 3YO graded earnings are more valuable than 2YO graded earnings, many horses will have very light 2YO campaign and quality of 2YO racing would likely decline. I suggest that many horses would get 2 or 3 races during late spring-midsummer and go on shelf until mid-November. Get an allowance race in early December and begin graded stakes journey on January 1.

Existing graded races such as FG: Lecomte, Risen Star and Louisiana Derby and OP: Southwest, Rebel and Arkansas Derby would gain greater importance. Aqueduct could move Withers immediately and improves its stature. Tampa Bay could introduce new 3YO prep and slide Tampa Bay Derby into February and create new value for its facility. Magnaville (GP & SA) would have to stop mismanaging its race schedules (see stellar G3 Holy Bull this year). Magna would need purse hikes in its 3YO preps for Santa Anita and Florida Derbies to attract horses away from FG, OP and Tam. The scenarios are endless and intriguing should this change occur.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by dylbert

B-I-N-G-O!!! Boyd Gaming moves race to first week in January and becomes key prep race. Yes, they would have to wait for grading, but it would come. I wondered how long it would take someone to post this fact. See you in Vinton!!!

If 3YO graded earnings are more valuable than 2YO graded earnings, many horses will have very light 2YO campaign and quality of 2YO racing would likely decline. I suggest that many horses would get 2 or 3 races during late spring-midsummer and go on shelf until mid-November. Get an allowance race in early December and begin graded stakes journey on January 1.

Existing graded races such as FG: Lecomte, Risen Star and Louisiana Derby and OP: Southwest, Rebel and Arkansas Derby would gain greater importance. Aqueduct could move Withers immediately and improves its stature. Tampa Bay could introduce new 3YO prep and slide Tampa Bay Derby into February and create new value for its facility. Magnaville (GP & SA) would have to stop mismanaging its race schedules (see stellar G3 Holy Bull this year). Magna would need purse hikes in its 3YO preps for Santa Anita and Florida Derbies to attract horses away from FG, OP and Tam. The scenarios are endless and intriguing should this change occur.

anak nakal is a perfect example of a horse getting in based solely on his two year old season. he's run eighth, seventh and fifth this season. but the gr 2 win in november gives him the earnings to run in may.