Wow, how much is Dutrow wagering the first Saturday in May?

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by Gander

The thing that concerns me about Z Fortune is why couldnt he get by a tiring Gayego in the Ark Derby? He had every chance too and still couldnt even make the finish close.
He'll have more to deal with than just getting by Gayego.

Here are the splits for the race:

22.71 23.90 24.48 25.86 12.68

The last 1/8th projects to a 25.36 quarter

so, Gayego actually picked it up a bit late (relative to the mile split)

and the only other horse to make a move in the race, Indian Sun, was almost even with Z Fortune at the 6F mark but then backed up significantly in relation to him late ; and, of course, the only other horse that ran EARLY finished 3rd.

so maybe Gayego wasn't tiring as bad as you'd like to think; or, something was holding these horses together late

Not to say that I'm a Z Fortune supporter; just telling it like it is

[Travis Stone]

Z Fortune was also wide on both turns. I think he's potentially sitting on a new top in terms of figures, with the Ark. Derby being a cycle-back. Unless the Ark. Derby was another peak... but I haven't decided on that one yet.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Here are the splits for the race:

22.71 23.90 24.48 25.86 12.68

The last 1/8th projects to a 25.36 quarter

so, Gayego actually picked it up a bit late (relative to the mile split)

and the only other horse to make a move in the race, Indian Sun, was almost even with Z Fortune at the 6F mark but then backed up significantly in relation to him late ; and, of course, the only other horse that ran EARLY finished 3rd.

so maybe Gayego wasn't tiring as bad as you'd like to think; or, something was holding these horses together late

Not to say that I'm a Z Fortune supporter; just telling it like it is

Good stuff- I thought Gayego also ran a quality race, and backing out the fractions proves it. He's a decent beast in this group of terribles, I just don't think he's going a mile and a quarter or I'd like him a lot more in 11 days.

Z Fortune may be the Steppenwolfer of this group, just kind of hangs around, not necessarily good enough to win but certainly eligible to outrun his odds.