Wow, how much is Dutrow wagering the first Saturday in May?

[Scav]

Originally Posted by philcski

They're ALL crows! What stellar field prep did I miss?!?

Pyro and maybe Z Fortune are the only other two horses I've seen make anything resembling a Derby winning run in this whole mess.

ok true....I am going to watch Z Fortune's race again and see what I saw, because I forgot....I looked his breeding the other day and starting to question that a little.

I mean, someone HAD to close into that pace last time, so it might have looked better then it was....To the replay cave

[Scav]

Alright, I just watched Z Fortune's race, he got a good trip I think but I have another concern, and I really can't tell because the video is kinda choppy

Was Gayego boreing in and out, or did Z Fortune bore in at about the sixteenth pole, looks like he took a real funny step or something, or was completely tired right about there.

He did finish up pretty well though, in front of Gayego......

He is going to get a real big number from TG, 4w5w...my guess is he might get the same number at Gayego actually....

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Scav

He is going to get a real big number from TG, 4w5w...my guess is he might get the same number at Gayego actually....

Scav, dude,

if he was two paths wider than Gayego on both turns - he will have given away 4 lengths in ground on both Ragozin figures and TG figures.

He was beaten less than a length... and they both carried 122.

Whatever number the sheet makers come up with - rest assured Z Fortune's number will be a little more than 3 lengths faster than Gayego's number.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Scav, dude,

if he was two paths wider than Gayego on both turns - he will have given away 4 lengths in ground on both Ragozin figures and TG figures.

He was beaten less than a length... and they both carried 122.

Whatever number the sheet makers come up with - rest assured Z Fortune's number will be a little more than 3 lengths faster than Gayego's number.

yeah, which is the reason I rewatched it, and that means he ran real big, like probably a top in the negative range, because Gayego moved forward, and he was already close. I am probably off the horse now, especially given that he bounced off his previous top pretty bad, so what the hell is he going to do if he ran a minus number....

[Linny]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Scav, dude,

if he was two paths wider than Gayego on both turns - he will have given away 4 lengths in ground on both Ragozin figures and TG figures.

He was beaten less than a length... and they both carried 122.

Whatever number the sheet makers come up with - rest assured Z Fortune's number will be a little more than 3 lengths faster than Gayego's number.

Z Fortune ran farther and looks more likely to get 10f based on pedigree and running style. If a son of Gilded Time wins the Derby I may have to get out of the game.

[MisterB]

Originally Posted by Linny

Z Fortune ran farther and looks more likely to get 10f based on pedigree and running style. If a son of Gilded Time wins the Derby I may have to get out of the game.

When you run your best effort to date, and need to come back in three weeks and top that, you really think this is a good sign? Can his tactical speed and late Kick over come a short rest this time?

[Scav]

Originally Posted by Linny

Z Fortune ran farther and looks more likely to get 10f based on pedigree and running style. If a son of Gilded Time wins the Derby I may have to get out of the game.

Gilded Time has thrown some routers Linny, but most of them have been on the lawn, at least in my handicapping experience.

That being said, I think he reacts pretty badly in this race, ran pretty big last out

[Gander]

The thing that concerns me about Z Fortune is why couldnt he get by a tiring Gayego in the Ark Derby? He had every chance too and still couldnt even make the finish close. Hes been getting a lot of press, actually both horses are. You really think the extra furlong will make the difference?
He'll have more to deal with than just getting by Gayego.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by Gander

The thing that concerns me about Z Fortune is why couldnt he get by a tiring Gayego in the Ark Derby? He had every chance too and still couldnt even make the finish close.
He'll have more to deal with than just getting by Gayego.

Here are the splits for the race:

22.71 23.90 24.48 25.86 12.68

The last 1/8th projects to a 25.36 quarter

so, Gayego actually picked it up a bit late (relative to the mile split)

and the only other horse to make a move in the race, Indian Sun, was almost even with Z Fortune at the 6F mark but then backed up significantly in relation to him late ; and, of course, the only other horse that ran EARLY finished 3rd.

so maybe Gayego wasn't tiring as bad as you'd like to think; or, something was holding these horses together late

Not to say that I'm a Z Fortune supporter; just telling it like it is