Wow, how much is Dutrow wagering the first Saturday in May?

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Hickory Hill Hoff

The more...the better!

i think a lot of attention he is getting is forced, due to lack of a real superstar. i don't think he's the real deal.

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

Originally Posted by Danzig

i think a lot of attention he is getting is forced, due to lack of a real superstar. i don't think he's the real deal.

One word..........Arazi

[Danzig]

yeah, but once upon a time, arazi was a champion.
it's why i think GSW's at two should not count at three. that would be like the previous seasons super bowl winner starting out with a three game lead in the standings. it's a whole new season.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Hickory Hill Hoff

One word..........Arazi

the difference is Arazi was a spectacular 2YO and a mediocre 3YO, who was attempting a 1-prep (on turf, on another continent) shot on the Derby. If you're going to use a recent comparison I think Bellamy Road might be fair, but Big Brown has a lot more going for him than BR did.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by philcski

the difference is Arazi was a spectacular 2YO and a mediocre 3YO, who was attempting a 1-prep (on turf, on another continent) shot on the Derby. If you're going to use a recent comparison I think Bellamy Road might be fair, but Big Brown has a lot more going for him than BR did.

really? like what? hope i don't sound like a smarty pants, but i don't see how he has an edge compared to bellamy. but then, i liked bellamy road.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Danzig

really? like what? hope i don't sound like a smarty pants, but i don't see how he has an edge compared to bellamy. but then, i liked bellamy road.

Bellamy's field was about 10X better than this one... take a look at the pp's (available on DRF http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/...erby_pps.pdf)- half the field would be the 2nd choice in here. And that wasn't even that strong of a Derby.

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Nistle's Crunch totally ran off with the blinkers and would have more than ran with him if Julian hadn't resorted to a choke hold.

With Georgie Boy gone, who's run individual races even remotely as good as Big Brown?

People are playing pretend with themselves if they don't think Big Brown goes into the Derby as by far the best horse.

The reason to not like Big Brown's Derby chances is because he's a very poor fit for the race style wise.

I can't even imagine how far out there people have to be to think there is another horse who's best race is as good as his best race.

I'm very excited to bet Pyro - but he has no individual race that rates competitively with any of Big Brown's.

Drugsy, you are saying exactly what I'm what I'm saying. If he can't rate, and runs off with Desormeaux, he won't win, or if he's not really a mile and a quarter horse he won't win. But for anyone to claim there's been a better prep than the Florida Derby (which could have been a 113 Beyer, at that) they're fooling themselves.

Is betting a horse at 7/2 in the Derby exciting? Absolutely not, which is why everyone's lining up to take shots at his chances.

[hockey2315]

What do you mean it could have been a 113 beyer?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

What do you mean it could have been a 113 beyer?

If they hadn't run another nine furlong dirt race an hour later the fact that the track was rapidly sped up after the Bonnie Miss would have been concealed.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by philcski

But for anyone to claim there's been a better prep than the Florida Derby (which could have been a 113 Beyer, at that) they're fooling themselves.

Oh, there have been better preps than the Florida Derby this year for sure - just not a better performance by the winner.

If you look at what was fractured in behind him ... there wasn't much at all.

Though, Smooth Air and Tomcito both clearly had better trips than Big Brown did.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Oh, there have been better preps than the Florida Derby this year for sure - just not a better performance by the winner.

If you look at what was fractured in behind him ... there wasn't much at all.

Though, Smooth Air and Tomcito both clearly had better trips than Big Brown did.

Agree- however the race has been verified as the three runners that came back so far, Hey Byrn (won the Holy Bull), Nistle's Crunch (won an allowance @ KEE), and Tomcito (ran better than his Fl Derby figure despite finishing 6th), all have run acceptably well.

Let's face it, this is a putrid group. Colonel John would have finished 5th in the '05 SA Derby... and that was probably the worst SA Derby ever. And he's probably going to be the 2nd choice in the Derby...

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

Originally Posted by philcski

the difference is Arazi was a spectacular 2YO and a mediocre 3YO, who was attempting a 1-prep (on turf, on another continent) shot on the Derby. If you're going to use a recent comparison I think Bellamy Road might be fair, but Big Brown has a lot more going for him than BR did.

Really, not too much...both ran huge races just before the Derby. Big Brown looks more suspect in the long run on dirt. Turf may be his future.

[blackthroatedwind]

Big Brown ran a " huge race? "

Was I out of the country? When did this " huge race " occur and at what track? Last I remember he ran a very nice race against a horrendous field at Gulfstream that was only considered relatively fast because this year's 3YOs are slower than molassis. Has he run another race since?

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Big Brown ran a " huge race? "

Was I out of the country? When did this " huge race " occur and at what track? Last I remember he ran a very nice race against a horrendous field at Gulfstream that was only considered relatively fast because this year's 3YOs are slower than molassis. Has he run another race since?

Exactly.....hope he takes all the money. He won't be on none of my tickets.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Big Brown ran a " huge race? "

Was I out of the country? When did this " huge race " occur and at what track? Last I remember he ran a very nice race against a horrendous field at Gulfstream that was only considered relatively fast because this year's 3YOs are slower than molassis. Has he run another race since?

And for drawing the far outside post, things weren't exactly really difficult for him. It's not like he was three-wide the whole way. And I don't buy this "he outran everyone" stuff. No one attempted to run with him, so basically, he had it all his own way.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

And for drawing the far outside post, things weren't exactly really difficult for him. It's not like he was three-wide the whole way. And I don't buy this "he outran everyone" stuff. No one attempted to run with him, so basically, he had it all his own way.

Nistle's Crunch totally ran off with the blinkers and would have more than ran with him if Julian hadn't resorted to a choke hold.

With Georgie Boy gone, who's run individual races even remotely as good as Big Brown?

People are playing pretend with themselves if they don't think Big Brown goes into the Derby as by far the best horse.

The reason to not like Big Brown's Derby chances is because he's a very poor fit for the race style wise.

I can't even imagine how far out there people have to be to think there is another horse who's best race is as good as his best race.

I'm very excited to bet Pyro - but he has no individual race that rates competitively with any of Big Brown's.

[johnny pinwheel]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

And for drawing the far outside post, things weren't exactly really difficult for him. It's not like he was three-wide the whole way. And I don't buy this "he outran everyone" stuff. No one attempted to run with him, so basically, he had it all his own way.

jeez, you guys are ruining it. let the suckers jump on the bandwagon. most of the people that put this horse on top bet once a year or are not following the kentucky derby over the years. or what happens to alot of people that are betting their money, they read the hype and become "fans". the only horse i am a fan of is one that makes me money at a fair price. big brown ain't it !

[Cannon Shell]

I believe that the writer of the story may have taken some literary license in suggesting that BB winning the Derby automatically will have him commanding 100k at stud. Or that Kip DeVille or Benny the Bull will be big time stallions.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

I believe that the writer of the story may have taken some literary license in suggesting that BB winning the Derby automatically will have him commanding 100k at stud. Or that Kip DeVille or Benny the Bull will be big time stallions.

With 150 mares lining up to breed him.

[Danzig]

they compared his potential to smarty jones...but i would take the line that boundary (pensioned btw) is no elusive quality. a horse winning the derby does not automatically equal a 100k stud fee. just ask giacomo or street sense.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Or that Kip DeVille or Benny the Bull will be big time stallions.

I didn't bother reading the story....

But did they really say that?