Derby Grid/Graded Earnings

[Gander]

Originally Posted by philcski

The winner of the Illinois Derby has gone off at:
2002: 21-1 (War Emblem, won)
2003: 6.6-1 (Ten Most Wanted, 9th)
2004: 24-1 (Pollard's Vision, 17th)
2005: 21-1 (Greeley's Galaxy, 11th)
2006: 5.5-1*favorite (Sweetnorthernsaint, 7th)
2007: 19.8-1 (Cowtown Cat, 20th and last)

All had similar credentials coming into the Derby as Recapturetheglory- I think you're underestimating the betting public's knowledge of the race.

And celebrity selections don't drive the odds when there's $50-75 million in the win pool...

Did Ten Most Wanted really go off at 6/1? And SNS at 5/1? LOL!
Maybe you are right and Recapture the Glory will go off closer to 10/1.
Hes a very nice horse, just not for this particular race.

[Gander]

You guys are right. The real money will come from those guys you see cashing in bottles and cans to finance their next trip to the OTB, or those guys who dont pay any bills but yet have to hock their ipods to make their next bet. They are the big bettors who sway the odds.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by Gander

You guys are right. The real money will come from those guys you see cashing in bottles and cans to finance their next trip to the OTB, or those guys who dont pay any bills but yet have to hock their ipods to make their next bet. They are the big bettors who sway the odds.

You're sorely underestimating the amount of stupid money in the pools on Derby day.

[Gander]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

You're sorely underestimating the amount of stupid money in the pools on Derby day.

Brian, you are misunderstanding me. These celebs I speak of, are the ones who throw the "stupid money" around creating bad underlays. Thus I am fully aware of the "stupid money". They arent stupid people (obviously) but they simply can afford to lose 100K without blinking an eye. I dont think the degenrates you see filling up OTBs on Tuesdays are the ones who create underlays.

Its the only race of the year you can count on the celebs to throw around "stupid money".

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by Gander

Brian, you are misunderstanding me. These celebs I speak of, are the ones who throw the "stupid money" around creating bad underlays. Thus I am fully aware of the "stupid money". They arent stupid people (obviously) but they simply can afford to lose 100K without blinking an eye. I dont think the degenrates you see filling up OTBs on Tuesdays are the ones who create underlays.

Its the only race of the year you can count on the celebs to throw around "stupid money".

And to my point exactly, a celebrity who exposes him or herself to horse racing for one day a year doesn't know the Illinois Derby from the Dubai World Cup from the Wood Memorial.

A huge bold number will be staring them in the face, and Recapturetheglory will get horribly overbet just like every Illinois Derby winner.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

I think when word gets out to Nick Lachey and his crew that David Carroll galloped Easy Goer THAT'S when you'll see the odds plummet for DoC.

I'm not sure if jokes about Nick Lachey or jokes about David Carroll galloping Easy Goer are more washed up and unfunny at this point in time. Tough call.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Hey man,

at exactly the 4 minute mark of this clip, you'll hear that Jan Rushton galloped Easy Goer as a 2yo...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1cCqhfuJIp0

I would soooo bet any Jan Rushton trained horse in the Champagne upon learning this exciting information.

[Gander]

Nick Lachey is a huge bettor too. Now that he got rid of his wife, he has even more money to play with. I wouldnt be surprised if Nick wagered 100K on this race. This guy has more money than Tiger Woods.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Gander

You guys are right. The real money will come from those guys you see cashing in bottles and cans to finance their next trip to the OTB, or those guys who dont pay any bills but yet have to hock their ipods to make their next bet. They are the big bettors who sway the odds.

Just remember this... Charles Cella bet a HALF MILLION DOLLARS on Smarty Jones to win the Derby when he was in line to cash the $5 million bonus for sweeping the Arkansas series & the KD, because he had only insured 1/2 of the prize, and SJ still went off at 4.10-1. Now THAT'S a big bet!

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I have it on good word that the Queen of England is pondering the possibility of making a $15 million bet on Recapturetheglory - however, she might call a last second audible and just opt to make an 850K exacta wheel with him on top of the all button.

Send her my way... I'll book the bet

[tiggerv]

Ben Affleck moving the Derby pool is is the funniest thing I have ever read on this site. Well done.

[IrishofNDMan]

Originally Posted by tiggerv

Ben Affleck moving the Derby pool is is the funniest thing I have ever read on this site. Well done.

I loved it, as I'm sure the rest of the board does as well.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by philcski

Just remember this... Charles Cella bet a HALF MILLION DOLLARS on Smarty Jones to win the Derby when he was in line to cash the $5 million bonus for sweeping the Arkansas series & the KD, because he had only insured 1/2 of the prize, and SJ still went off at 4.10-1. Now THAT'S a big bet!



Send her my way... I'll book the bet

after smartys last work pre-derby, cella got ins for the other half of the bonus. he's no dummy.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Danzig

after smartys last work pre-derby, cella got ins for the other half of the bonus. he's no dummy.

Yeah... his insurance was he bought a win ticket for $500k! The insurance company was asking for $1mm for the $2.5mm coverage, and he said "well damn, I can just bet him to win and get better than that!"

[IrishofNDMan]

Originally Posted by philcski

Yeah... his insurance was he bought a win ticket for $500k! The insurance company was asking for $1mm for the $2.5mm coverage, and he said "well damn, I can just bet him to win and get better than that!"

I plan on doing the same thing this year, just gotta find the right horse first.

[Danzig]

i can't remember the last time i was this close to the derby and really had no inkling of which way to go. so many with no shot, and so few standing in their way! i almost breathed a sigh of relief when i saw war pass was out, as that would be one less to play in the rttr game. but that's only one out, stll have to choose who to insert.

crazy year.