Is Haskin joking?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

In the sheets era of bad efforts being good and great efforts being bad he is looking better all the time

I'm not sure Cannon - I don't pretend to be Lenny Friedman or Jerry Brown - but wouldn't Z Fortune be a big "bounce" candidate?

I don't have his sheet numbers - but he'd run Beyers of 87 and 82 in the Risen Star and Rebel - and soared to a 102 Beyer (with a very wide trip) that is a significant new top.

As I recall, when a 3yo with just six career starts runs a big new top, and has just three weeks rest between starts, he's a high percentage bounce candidate.

I know I've heard a few Ragozin Sheet experts (Hardoon) say that Big Brown actually has a good pattern going into the Derby. He was supposed to bounce in the Fla Derby - but made a slight forward move instead - and goes into the race with five weeks rest.

I'm not exactly one who buys into this stuff anyway.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I'm not sure Cannon - I don't pretend to be Lenny Friedman or Jerry Brown - but wouldn't Z Fortune be a big "bounce" candidate?

I don't have his sheet numbers - but he'd run Beyers of 87 and 82 in the Risen Star and Rebel - and soared to a 102 Beyer (with a very wide trip) that is a significant new top.

As I recall, when a 3yo with just six career starts runs a big new top, and has just three weeks rest between starts, he's a high percentage bounce candidate.

I know I've heard a few Ragozin Sheet experts (Hardoon) say that Big Brown actually has a good pattern going into the Derby. He was supposed to bounce in the Fla Derby - but made a slight forward move instead - and goes into the race with five weeks rest.

I'm not exactly one who buys into this stuff anyway.

I'm not sure that Z Fortune ran a big top last out. He was pretty fast early in the year. I dont know how anyone can say BB's pattern is anything since he has run so infrequently to actually have a pattern

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

I dont know how anyone can say BB's pattern is anything since he has run so infrequently to actually have a pattern

I'm just going by what I heard the Ragozin Sheets John Hardoon say about BB and his Derby pattern.

He's supposed to be an expert at that stuff - I happen to think it's mostly nonsense.

Where do you stand on that?

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I'm just going by what I heard the Ragozin Sheets John Hardoon say about BB and his Derby pattern.

He's supposed to be an expert at that stuff - I happen to think it's mostly nonsense.

Where do you stand on that?

I think that they used to be cutting edge and gave those guys a big edge. Nowdays the edge they have is small or doesnt even exist especially since pace is not incorporated into the numbers (supposedly). Just as Beyers are raw numbers that are adjusted based upon different peoples interpretation of the race with little to no regard for pace, trips, surface, post position, etc, they both have flaws and in a world where there is so much information available they dont stand out to me.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

I think that they used to be cutting edge and gave those guys a big edge. Nowdays the edge they have is small or doesnt even exist especially since pace is not incorporated into the numbers (supposedly). Just as Beyers are raw numbers that are adjusted based upon different peoples interpretation of the race with little to no regard for pace, trips, surface, post position, etc, they both have flaws and in a world where there is so much information available they dont stand out to me.

I was looking more for your opinions and where you stand on the validity of sheet figure patterns and form cycles.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I was looking more for your opinions and where you stand on the validity of sheet figure patterns and form cycles.

There probably is some validity to form cycles and patterns if the numbers are fairly accurate. Of course sometimes the numbers are off which can lead to a false interpretation of the pattern.

[King Glorious]

While I don't like Monba's chances to win and feel like the race is a two-horse contest between Big Brown and Colonel John, I can't find any reason to make fun of anyone else's choices. Even those two have big question marks and in the most wide open Derby I can recall, no choices can be any more ridiculous than any others. Now, if he really likes Monba and isn't just going with him to be different, that's fine. But if he's just going with him to go away from popular opinion, that doesn't make much sense to me.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

I'm not sure that Z Fortune ran a big top last out. He was pretty fast early in the year. I dont know how anyone can say BB's pattern is anything since he has run so infrequently to actually have a pattern

BB ran a negative 3 and half via Thorograph message board which is a huge top.

As for Z Fortune, his last race was a bounce off two pairs with good numbers. It would be my guess that Gayego is within that negative range or at least '1' thus making him a huge play against. If Gayego did run that big, then Z Fortune got back to his top in the Ark Derby, thus making him a real good play in the Derby.

[Scav]

Going with Monba is absolutely insane BUT I'll give Haskin credit, he sure as hell got us talking.

Monba's two big races were his maiden win, and now the Bluegrass, he is truly a synethic lover, try and watch the races next to each other(dirt vs synthetic) and see the difference in the way he runs.

[CSC]

Picking the Derby winner this year can no more amount to spinning the wheel and hoping it lands on your number, I give Haskin some credit for creativity. Beats picking Pyro or Big Brown.

Btw if Giacomo made no sense winning the derby I can't wait to this year. A total guess if you ask me.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by CSC

I give Haskin some credit for creativity. Beats picking Pyro or Big Brown.

Monba is regarded as Pletcher's best chance - and that alone will contribute to him being significantly overbet.

There are horses with better chances who will be bigger prices.

[jcs11204]

like cowboy cal and court vision

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Scav

Going with Monba is absolutely insane BUT I'll give Haskin credit, he sure as hell got us talking.

Monba's two big races were his maiden win, and now the Bluegrass, he is truly a synethic lover, try and watch the races next to each other (dirt vs synthetic) and see the difference in the way he runs.

This is incorrect or confused. The MDN win and Blue Grass both came at KEE... You may mean his ALW win at Churchill on closing day as a point of comparison of his dirt/poly form.

I would think a win at the Downs has merit in evaluating his Derby prospects...

And considering how individual flop races are being crossed out on several competitors' PP's during this Derby run-up, I don't know why Monba supporters couldn't cross out his difficult FOY and be happy with his credentials. He's not for me, but he's certainly as appealing as several others being supported on flimsier evidence.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by Kasept

This is incorrect or confused. The MDN win and Blue Grass both came at KEE... You may mean his ALW win at Churchill on closing day as a point of comparison of his dirt/poly form.

I would think a win at the Downs has merit in evaluating his Derby prospects...

And considering how individual flop races are being crossed out on several competitors' PP's during this Derby run-up, I don't know why Monba supporters couldn't cross out his difficult FOY and be happy with his credentials. He's not for me, but he's certainly as appealing as several others being supported on flimsier evidence.

I see how what I said could be misread.

I meant what I said, his BIG races, or good races, were his maiden win and his Blue Grass, I wasn't impressed with his ALW win at Churchill.

Watch his maiden win vs his Churchill win, side by side or back to back and tell me which one looked looked better. Which one the horse looked more comfortable in his stride. This horse wants no part of the dirt. I will concede that the argument is weak given he has won over Churchill, and his lone dirt start this year he was squeezed pretty bad, but I just see a different horse on the poly, compared to his lone dirt win.

[sumitas]

i'll stick with the world record holder at 6F. he's liking the longer distance just fine, unlike others in this field. i like his style, sitting just behind the lead.

of course we'll have to wait until KD day to see how the track plays.

until derby week i'll chill.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I'm not sure Cannon - I don't pretend to be Lenny Friedman or Jerry Brown - but wouldn't Z Fortune be a big "bounce" candidate?

I don't have his sheet numbers - but he'd run Beyers of 87 and 82 in the Risen Star and Rebel - and soared to a 102 Beyer (with a very wide trip) that is a significant new top.

As I recall, when a 3yo with just six career starts runs a big new top, and has just three weeks rest between starts, he's a high percentage bounce candidate.

I know I've heard a few Ragozin Sheet experts (Hardoon) say that Big Brown actually has a good pattern going into the Derby. He was supposed to bounce in the Fla Derby - but made a slight forward move instead - and goes into the race with five weeks rest.

I'm not exactly one who buys into this stuff anyway.

Big Brown a good pattern, only a Ragozin guy would say that.

As far as Z Fortune, give me a second....