Is Haskin joking?

[SteveHaskin]

Mr. Byk e-mailed and suggested I chime in and have fun with this thread. Why not? In a year like this, you gotta lighten up. 90% of us are gonna look like dummies after the race anyway, so might as well go down solo and not with the crowd with Colonel John and Big Brown. As far as whether I'm serious or not...a little bit. As far as whether I bet (the Derby)...a little bit. Do I really like anyone this year? No. For a price I'll look at Smooth Air and Adriano, and maybe Court Vision to hit the board. After that, take your pick. I just figured if I liked Monba enough in January to put him #2 in my first Derby Dozen, why not have some fun and put him #1 after winning the Blue Grass. Any other year I wouldn't even consider it.

[SteveHaskin]

I forgot to add Z Fortune as a potential live longshot; just not sure about his pedigree, but his Arkansas Derby reminded me a lot of Grindstone's and Lil E. Tee's. All opinions can, and likely will, change dramatically after I see the horses train and in the flesh. That's where you find most of your Derby winners, not in the past performances.

[Cannon Shell]

Z Fortune is one of the few horses in the race that actually makes a little sense.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Z Fortune is one of the few horses in the race that actually makes a little sense.

If you can overlook the way Pyro exploded past him in the lane in the Risen Star - and his next out non-effort in the Rebel.

[wac]

I think the thing with zfortune that woke me up was his post position in the Ark derby. I rememeber reading a story that when smarty was going for the 5mil bonus after he left from 11 i think in the ark derby and won,granted he rolled in that race, the owners of Oaklawn strated getting nervous and while he didn't win he put in a pretty good race i think. would think that he will have pretty good odds and may liven things up in the exotics. Another thing to think about is that everyone is going to be talking about Pyro and how many times have we seen where a trainer has some horses in and everyone gets on the "one" and the others are left out it is sometimes that other horse that runs big. I can think of real quiet=indian charlie? and peace rules=empire maker. What do i know just food for thought.

[Bogey]

I ran this scenario through my head this afternoon. Prado will probably stay on Tale of Ekati for the Derby. What if Pletcher has Johnny V ride Monba and have Luzzi (or similar jock) on Cowboy Cal just to add to the early pace (rabbit). Just something to think about. I've been a fan of Monba since his allowance win at CD and this could be his best chance in a wide open Derby.

I like SH's dozen at this point, but will wait for the CD workouts/Draw to make final decision. Of course, then you have how the track is playing on Derby day to deal with.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Bogey

I ran this scenario through my head this afternoon. Prado will probably stay on Tale of Ekati for the Derby. What if Pletcher has Johnny V ride Monba and have Luzzi (or similar jock) on Cowboy Cal just to add to the early pace (rabbit). Just something to think about. I've been a fan of Monba since his allowance win at CD and this could be his best chance in a wide open Derby.

I like SH's dozen at this point, but will wait for the CD workouts/Draw to make final decision. Of course, then you have how the track is playing on Derby day to deal with.

Prado's agent said today that EP would be on Monba or Adriano and that Tagg has already been informed that he will not be aboard Tale of Ekati.

NT

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Prado's agent said today that EP would be on Monba or Adriano and that Tagg has already been informed that he will not be aboard Tale of Ekati.

NT

Hmmmm... Interesting

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

If you can overlook the way Pyro exploded past him in the lane in the Risen Star - and his next out non-effort in the Rebel.

In the sheets era of bad efforts being good and great efforts being bad he is looking better all the time

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

In the sheets era of bad efforts being good and great efforts being bad he is looking better all the time

I'm not sure Cannon - I don't pretend to be Lenny Friedman or Jerry Brown - but wouldn't Z Fortune be a big "bounce" candidate?

I don't have his sheet numbers - but he'd run Beyers of 87 and 82 in the Risen Star and Rebel - and soared to a 102 Beyer (with a very wide trip) that is a significant new top.

As I recall, when a 3yo with just six career starts runs a big new top, and has just three weeks rest between starts, he's a high percentage bounce candidate.

I know I've heard a few Ragozin Sheet experts (Hardoon) say that Big Brown actually has a good pattern going into the Derby. He was supposed to bounce in the Fla Derby - but made a slight forward move instead - and goes into the race with five weeks rest.

I'm not exactly one who buys into this stuff anyway.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I'm not sure Cannon - I don't pretend to be Lenny Friedman or Jerry Brown - but wouldn't Z Fortune be a big "bounce" candidate?

I don't have his sheet numbers - but he'd run Beyers of 87 and 82 in the Risen Star and Rebel - and soared to a 102 Beyer (with a very wide trip) that is a significant new top.

As I recall, when a 3yo with just six career starts runs a big new top, and has just three weeks rest between starts, he's a high percentage bounce candidate.

I know I've heard a few Ragozin Sheet experts (Hardoon) say that Big Brown actually has a good pattern going into the Derby. He was supposed to bounce in the Fla Derby - but made a slight forward move instead - and goes into the race with five weeks rest.

I'm not exactly one who buys into this stuff anyway.

I'm not sure that Z Fortune ran a big top last out. He was pretty fast early in the year. I dont know how anyone can say BB's pattern is anything since he has run so infrequently to actually have a pattern

[Scav]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I'm not sure Cannon - I don't pretend to be Lenny Friedman or Jerry Brown - but wouldn't Z Fortune be a big "bounce" candidate?

I don't have his sheet numbers - but he'd run Beyers of 87 and 82 in the Risen Star and Rebel - and soared to a 102 Beyer (with a very wide trip) that is a significant new top.

As I recall, when a 3yo with just six career starts runs a big new top, and has just three weeks rest between starts, he's a high percentage bounce candidate.

I know I've heard a few Ragozin Sheet experts (Hardoon) say that Big Brown actually has a good pattern going into the Derby. He was supposed to bounce in the Fla Derby - but made a slight forward move instead - and goes into the race with five weeks rest.

I'm not exactly one who buys into this stuff anyway.

Big Brown a good pattern, only a Ragozin guy would say that.

As far as Z Fortune, give me a second....

[cloud_break]

Originally Posted by SteveHaskin

I forgot to add Z Fortune as a potential live longshot; just not sure about his pedigree, but his Arkansas Derby reminded me a lot of Grindstone's and Lil E. Tee's. All opinions can, and likely will, change dramatically after I see the horses train and in the flesh. That's where you find most of your Derby winners, not in the past performances.

Truer words have never been written about handicapping the Derby.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by SteveHaskin

That's where you find most of your Derby winners, not in the past performances.

And I will not soon forget you giving us Bluegrass Cat on the improve along with Barbaro 2 years back.. And Street Sense last year became an include on top instead of an exclude thanks to your keen eye during training at Churchill. Thanks.

[hockey2315]

"And Street Sense last year became an include on top instead of an exclude thanks to your keen eye during training at Churchill."

You're right- Street Sense was a total toss before that.

[jms62]

Absoultely !!! Yes we all know the GREAT record of Juvenile BC winners.. You burn much over the years betting them wise ass ??

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by jms62

Absoultely !!! Yes we all know the GREAT record of Juvenile BC winners.. You burn much over the years betting them wise ass ??

Personally I toss all horses that don't have three syllable names and pretty silks.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by jms62

Absoultely !!! Yes we all know the GREAT record of Juvenile BC winners.. You burn much over the years betting them wise ass ??

If you were chucking him based just on that.. You need way more help with this than Steve Haskin could ever provide.

[jms62]

Worked for me about 20 times in a row dude , I didn't burn a spot on my ticket with the Juve champ ?? How about you ?? Ever think that peaking to win the Juvenile takes its toll on a horse ? Betting is all about following trends but of course from your sarcastic post you know it all already.

PS...

We got your post the first time there was no need to post again... I like your handle though.

[pb72vett]

Originally Posted by SteveHaskin

I forgot to add Z Fortune as a potential live longshot; just not sure about his pedigree, but his Arkansas Derby reminded me a lot of Grindstone's and Lil E. Tee's. All opinions can, and likely will, change dramatically after I see the horses train and in the flesh. That's where you find most of your Derby winners, not in the past performances.

Peter B.I LIKE what they see and feel there more on the inside then us most, others seem to think best is chalk toplay,20 horses very hard for chalk to take small prices on last year was avery good time this year much has changed ,just as the market, step in STEVE BYKE also is derby in hydif.tv?