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#41
04-14-2008, 08:27 AM
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(10) Derbies to see how they compare with this years prep races and whether they support or refute Steve and your thoughts about the Wood. Bob 
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#44
04-14-2008, 09:36 AM
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Do you have a lower confidence level when making figures for Derby preps due to there being a limited sample of age/sex/distance races against which to compare the preps' fractions and final times? I've made and used my own pace/final figures and have found it far more difficult to have great confidence in figures I've made for infrequently run classifications (like a Derby prep) vs, say, a 6F or 8F race for older. When figure professionals say that the "track changed" for races like the Florida Derby and Arkansas Derby, is it mostly a case of the surface actually changing or more a reflection of the difficulty of assigning figures for these races? I guess that's two questions. Thanks.
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#45
04-14-2008, 09:40 AM
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I don't find them any harder to make than any other figures. It can be tough when it is the only route on the card, or it is surrounded by a turf races, but that isn't any different than your usual race card.
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#46
04-14-2008, 09:56 AM
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#47
04-14-2008, 10:45 AM
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I,VE PUT LESS IMPACT ON BEYERS, AND MORE BACK ON PLAIN SPEED FIGS,
THEY SEEM TO HAVE COME 180 degrees the last couple of years. the pace has also change somewhat because of breeding in the horses. Slow to slow fast to fast winners .
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#48
04-14-2008, 10:51 AM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#49
04-14-2008, 11:02 AM
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Let Me Clear It Up A Little About Pace Is Changing
Iv'e Notice Slightly In The Higher Grade Races A Slow Pace Seems To Benefit Closers Nowdays, And A Fast Pace Closers Can't Keep
Up With The Horses Who Are Carrying Their Speed Farther,contrary To The Old Carve In Stone Laws Of Racing. Its Changing Very Slowly Due To Breeding Have You Notice It?
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#52
04-14-2008, 02:23 PM
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#53
04-14-2008, 03:12 PM
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legendary thread which contains the decoder ring... it was found in a box of ovaltine
__________________
please use generalizations and non-truths when arguing your side, thank you
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#54
04-16-2008, 08:37 PM
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I totally agree with your reasoning as to why Assmussen went to KEE with Pyro. IMO A "fitter" colt with fresher legs heading to the Derby was his goal ... But I seriously doubt Ass was happy with 10th. I believe it was 1957 since a horse ran worse than 5th in his last prep and came back to win the KD (according to Steve Haskin on "ATR" ) Adriano had a nice race on the poly in the Lanes End. Should be running in the last 3/8ths. Handling the nuttyness of Derby Day is a huge question. My choice unless EP rides and erases all value.
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