Value play

[ShadowRoll]

Originally Posted by hi_im_god

ex post facto thinking.

it lost therefore there was never value in the bet.

if there's a photo finish between a 2/5 favorite and a 10-1, which one do you want your money on?

the photo's not in yet. time to decide.

Exactly. The term "value" applies prior to the running of the race, not after. It's a simple risk/benefit analysis. If the actual risk of your investment is exceeded by the likely return, you make money in the long run.

Two horses in a race. They race ten times. The public odds of the two horses suggest that Horse A will win 7 out of 10 times, Horse B will win 3 out of 10. However, Horse B's actual chance of winning is 4 out of ten, not 3 out of ten. A bet on Horse B has "value".

By betting Horse B in each race, your risk is exceeded by your return. If the return is high enough (i.e., the bet has "value"), you win more money than you lose, even though you'll still lose most of the time (6 out of 10) by betting on Horse B.