4/5 (AQU): Gr. I Wood & Carter; Bay Shore; Excelsior

[Pedigree Ann]

The difference between War Pass and Devil's Bag is that DB was bred to run long and improve with age, whereas War Pass isn't. DB was a full brother to Glorious Song (a champion at 4 and 5) and to Saint Ballado (won the Arlington Classic at 3), so a dominant 3yo campaign could reasonably be expected. War Pass's stakes winning half-sister Oath was a G1 winner at 2 who didn't train on at 3, and we haven't seen Cherokee Runs (like Kafwain) get better with age.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

I was thinking the same thing. I was merely pointing out the distinct correlation between the two in when and where they ran and how they did in those races.

The fact is, pedigree or not, Devil's Bag did NOT get better with age- he ran slower as a 3yo and lost to horses he destroyed at 2.

In my opinion, pedigree is a great tool to determine what should happen when horses try new things, but once he/she attempts a new task that actual performance should take precedence over pedigree.

[JJP]

The Excelsior looks very weak.....looks like another race that deserves a downgrade.

How is it that Tale of Ekati is the morning line
2nd choice in the Wood?
Does anyone really expect this much improvement?
I know his first time back was a Pyro moment but what the heck?

I dont take much stock in these.
But someone has respect...
Why is this warrented?

[jcs11204]

Originally Posted by JJP

The Excelsior looks very weak.....looks like another race that deserves a downgrade.

i think your wrong. its a nice group of heavy hitters, with a up and comer who could be special

[JJP]

Originally Posted by jcs11204

i think your wrong. its a nice group of heavy hitters, with a up and comer who could be special

I've seen classified allowance races that were stronger than this phony Grade 3.

[jcs11204]

whatever, its a competitive group, nice betting race, you can catch a nice price and still make money in the pick 4 with war pass keyed

[jcs11204]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Heavy hitters? And who is the up and comer, Wafi City? You have got to be kidding.

ok slick, off of his last why not ? marina market came back to win, and wafi's last number was big.

[NTamm1215]

Personally I think Wafi City is highly unlikely to run even close to the number he did last time. He was the beneficiary of a perfect trip and considering he's a horse that has been unable to run three races without a layoff, I think the chances of him matching that effort are minimal. He will have to be sent very hard from the outside unless Cornelio is interested in going wide. It's also worth noting that Alan Garcia has chosen to ride Angliana.

If you're shopping for a longshot or even a mid-range price I think there are other places to go, especially with two very vulnerable favorites in Magna Grad and Nite Light.

NT

[jcs11204]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Is this the thanks I get for trying to talk you off your new Derby horse Prussian?

His last race was impressive visually and it was fast. Now, the second place finisher was a bomb who isn't much and Wisp, who ran third is no win machine. I'm just not too excited about betting him at what will probably be around 2-1, especially with the quick run to the turn. He could definitely win, but he's not special IMO and this is not a field of heavy hitters.

i never said i liked him, and yes you did try talking me off prussian

i lost 32 dollers today a pick 3 and pick 4 for 16 each.... which i would not have hit either even if prussian did win

[Pedigree Ann]

Originally Posted by philcski

In my opinion, pedigree is a great tool to determine what should happen when horses try new things, but once he/she attempts a new task that actual performance should take precedence over pedigree.

Precisely. Kona Gold was bred to win the Belmont, but he was best sprinting. Genetics can be such a funny thing at times - a recessive chestnut shows up after 2 or 3 generations of dominant bays and browns (a Secretariat, for instance); a genuine stayer shows up from a family of sprinter/milers because he takes after dad (Round Table, Damascus).

I liken it to a slot machine with dozens of wheels - you can have lots of stamina, or early maturity, or speed, or good lungs, or good legs on an individual wheel to improve the odds, but there is always the chance that they won't come up for this particular animal.

[King Glorious]

J Be K
War Pass over Court Vision

[CSC]

Good call on Inner Light guys. I was surprised Cornelio didn't try to take a hold of War Pass early on or perhaps War Pass is not rateable and he had no choice. I thought he ran very well considering the way race shaped up for him. Unfortunately for War Pass he is looking very one dimensional at this stage in his career, all his best races have been around one turn if you throw out the slop effort in the BC, it will be interesting if he continues onto the Derby. He does look to have a very promising career as a miler.