3rd Derby Future Book Wager

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I'm not sure that's a good idea. Having 400+ entries would mean chaos in the odds. There will be so little money bet on 90% of the horses that you'll have to hope no one else is betting at the last minute like you are.

I also disagree that the current structure can't offer value. In fact, I'm quite certain it can and regularly does offer value.

--Dunbar

I can assure you handle would be MUCH higher if 400 entries were available. For example... what if you liked Big Brown back in January? Too bad- you're stuck with "all others" at 4-1. Or in 2004, what if you liked Smarty Jones? Too bad, again, you're stuck punching the "all others" at 4-1.

I'd like to see one time where someone actually got the value they were looking for out of the future pool. Funny Cide... MAYBE.

Originally Posted by lemoncrush

I agree with this, and think their might be a happy medium somewhere along the lines of maybe 80-100 horses, at least in the first pool. I think the 3rd pool overall is kind of a bad idea. Maybe just have one pool in early March that would make it more of an event?

Plus, anyone who has access to a Vegas sportsbook can usually get a great price on derby hopefuls they like anytime between October and March

Not anymore you can't. Any horse that shows a HINT of ability instantly drops to 25-1... which isn't value in a future wager.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by philcski

I can assure you handle would be MUCH higher if 400 entries were available. For example... what if you liked Big Brown back in January? Too bad- you're stuck with "all others" at 4-1. Or in 2004, what if you liked Smarty Jones? Too bad, again, you're stuck punching the "all others" at 4-1.

I'd like to see one time where someone actually got the value they were looking for out of the future pool. Funny Cide... MAYBE.

Phil, it's a 16% takeout. Same as race day. Just like on race day, some horses will be overhyped and some will be overlooked. And some people are kind enough to toss money in the future pool even though the horse they are betting on will run before the pool closes. (How much will be bet on War Pass, El Gato Malo, et al before they race this weekend?!) That doesn't happen on race day. Some bets are probably going to have value. All the usual complaints (horses might not make it into the starting gate, etc) don't change the underlying vig. If you truly think no individual horse has value, then "all others" would likely have value.

--Dunbar

[hailrazer]

I'll take the field at 15-1 and hope Eight Belles goes in the derby.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by hailrazer

I'll take the field at 15-1 and hope Eight Belles goes in the derby.

That's TERRIBLE value

[Scurlogue Champ]

I have a feeling that the limit of 24 could have something to do with tote...

[robfla]

Originally Posted by Scurlogue Champ

I have a feeling that the limit of 24 could have something to do with tote...

with today's technology, it would be so simple to adjust the totes if necessary. They can use that as an excuse, but it is not reality

[johnny pinwheel]

Originally Posted by Scurlogue Champ

I have a feeling that the limit of 24 could have something to do with tote...

it does, it may be the stupidest pool alive. in the first two, none of the above is usually the fave .if your a day to day person in this game. taking anything less than 30-1 in these things is dumb. as for the derby i've been burned enough times now to know better . betting horses like big brown or war pass at low odds is about the worse bet one can make! you got to take a shot in this race or just watch. if you don't go out on a limb you are wasting your time.

[hockey2315]

Like I keep saying - CCM is the value in this pool. These odds are absurd.

Horses like Adriano (spaz/turf horse), Big Truck (slow), Court Vision (slow), El Gato Malo(poly horse/distance ?s), TOMCITO (needs more than 10F to win), Visionaire(distance limitations), and Z Fortune (awful last race) are ahead of him despite the fact that he's 2-for-2 this year (both at 9F), has faster beyers than almost all of them, has a win at CD, has the perfect stalking style for the derby, has top connections, is bred to route, etc...

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by hailrazer

I'll take the field at 15-1 and hope Eight Belles goes in the derby.

Last year, "all others" in Pool 3 closed at 25.5-1, but the average close since 2000 is 14-1.

Here are PP's for the 23 individual Pool 3 entries:

http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/..._123_pool3.pdf

--Dunbar

[Thunder Gulch]

Give me some Court Vision, currently 30-1 (9am Friday). Ok, his final number will depend on what he does tomorrow, but I think he's the best suited of the "second tier" horses.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

Give me some Court Vision, currently 30-1 (9am Friday). Ok, his final number will depend on what he does tomorrow, but I think he's the best suited of the "second tier" horses.

I'll give you 30-1 right now without waiting to see what he does tomorrow.

[Scav]

I know this sounds funny, but their could be value on Pyro in this pool, assuming it closes on Sunday. If you were to get 6/1 on Pyro in this pool, because of the legion of Big Brown followers, and Pyro goes and wins the BG easily, he will be the 3/1 favorite in the Derby, and the most likely winner. Something to consider.

[cakes44]

Originally Posted by hailrazer

I'll take the field at 15-1 and hope Eight Belles goes in the derby.

Why would you do that when there is maybe a 25% chance that Eight Belles goes to the Derby, and then even when she gets there, you'd get WAY better odds on derby day...probably in the 30-1 range at least.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by cakes44

Why would you do that when there is maybe a 25% chance that Eight Belles goes to the Derby, and then even when she gets there, you'd get WAY better odds on derby day...probably in the 30-1 range at least.

As an FYI... of the Jones' fillies, from what I hear, Proud Spell is far more likely to try Derby than Eight Belles..

[Oaklawnfan]

Originally Posted by Kasept

As an FYI... of the Jones' fillies, from what I hear, Proud Spell is far more likely to try Derby than Eight Belles..

Eight Belles will run in the Fantasy at Oaklawn, rather than the Arkansas Derby.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Oaklawnfan

Eight Belles will run in the Fantasy at Oaklawn, rather than the Arkansas Derby.

O/F..

Got ya... I was refering to Kentucky with Proud Spell (v. Eight Belles)...

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by cakes44

Why would you do that when there is maybe a 25% chance that Eight Belles goes to the Derby, and then even when she gets there, you'd get WAY better odds on derby day...probably in the 30-1 range at least.

It's not that simple. You would probably get a few other Derby runners with the "All others" bet. So you can't compare it directly to waiting for Eight Belles in the Derby.

--Dunbar

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

It's not that simple. You would probably get a few other Derby runners with the "All others" bet. So you can't compare it directly to waiting for Eight Belles in the Derby.

--Dunbar

Ya but who else are you getting that has any shot?

[cakes44]

Horses like Turf War, Z Humor, and Majestic Warrior...horses with no shot. There is NO value in taking "all others" in Pool 3. None.

[hailrazer]

Originally Posted by cakes44

Why would you do that when there is maybe a 25% chance that Eight Belles goes to the Derby, and then even when she gets there, you'd get WAY better odds on derby day...probably in the 30-1 range at least.

Wasn't saying Eight Belles was any kind of value at 15-1 and I won't be playing the future bet. Just saying that I like the horse and would like to her on my side if she goes in the Derby, along with the other horses that may impress in the last preps and end up in the field. Out of the 25 options listed, this is the one I would choose.