Post This!!!!

[the_fat_man]

The turkey comes out every morning, for 364 mornings, and runs to meet the farmer, as it knows that the farmer is coming to feed it. On the 365th day, the farmer grabs it, slits its throat, and makes a meal of it.

Hume's problem of induction.

My point: it's fine to look at stats in general but stats that don't take the ability of the individual horse, rather than just the post, into question can work in the general case but will fail when needed bigtime.

Of course, the answer will always be that the stats hold in the long run. This is a GOOD argument except in the case where THEY FAIL. Which is precisely this case.