Dubai on TVG?

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Scav

This horse should be 1/5 or 2/5 in this field, if I can get TWICE that, 4/5, I percieve that as value and I will bet accordingly.

All it is, is a 3 minute (Plus however long to be official) loan as far as I am concerned because the horse aint losing.

And I obviously don't do this all the time, because I don't usually bet 4/5, unless I think the horse should be 1/2....

way too risky especially in this case if you ask me. you can't have a good handle on some of these horses given that they are coming from so many different countries so to me its hard to be sure that that value is real. everybody and their mother will be doing the same thing.

you've got big turf races in front of this race, with big fields and legit longshot potential. if you like curlin why not try to get much better odds with a double or pk3?

[Scav]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

way too risky especially in this case if you ask me. you can't have a good handle on some of these horses given that they are coming from so many different countries so to me its hard to be sure that that value is real. everybody and their mother will be doing the same thing.

you've got big turf races in front of this race, with big fields and legit longshot potential. if you like curlin why not try to get much better odds with a double or pk3?

I am trying to get away from P3's and you SUCK ME BACK IN...

How much money are really going to be in those P3 pools though?

I know...I haven't decided on how tomorrow is going to go yet.

This conversation is probably pointless given the fact that he will be 1/5 or 2/5 and in that case, I am obviously not playing him....

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Scav

I am trying to get away from P3's and you SUCK ME BACK IN...

I know...I haven't decided on how tomorrow is going to go yet.

This conversation is probably pointless given the fact that he will be 1/5 or 2/5 and in that case, I am obviously not playing him....

that was a general comment, honestly I don't see the race as playable. its not my kind of play. even if I think he's a sure thing which I really do, the odds will be just too low.

i do think some bombs could come out of the rest of the card, i've got a few i'm looking at.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

that was a general comment, honestly I don't see the race as playable. its not my kind of play. even if I think he's a sure thing which I really do, the odds will be just too low.

i do think some bombs could come out of the rest of the card, i've got a few i'm looking at.

It's not my kind of play either, agreed on that. However, this race can be played in the same vein as War Pass losing to the Tagg horse. The best horse doesn't always run their race for whatever reason, if you want to take a shot that lighting will strike, the payoff may be worth it. Again I just don't like that method of betting, however it would be feasible as long as you know before going in that Curlin is the best horse, and you are betting that he has an off day, that is what you are betting on.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

The horse has gone off low 3 times.Twice he got beat doing it,and once he won doing it.He lost at 4/5,and even money.He won at 4/5.I guess I just don't understand why you want him less than even money(when you could of had him at over 4-1.)Yes,he ran huge,but unless he is running in the slop again,then I think he could run 2nd or 3rd again.Other than that Grade 1 race,he hasn't been dominant in Grade 1 races.He has been very competitive in them,but he has only drawn off in one Grade 1 race. I guess most everyone thinks his real self is gunna be to now do what he did at the B.C. on a dry track.Maybe,but I don't know.I think his real self may still be to win or lose by a neck in big races.The Juvenile filly winner,and B.C. Sprint winner haven't looked as dominant as they did that day in the slop.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

that was a general comment, honestly I don't see the race as playable. its not my kind of play. even if I think he's a sure thing which I really do, the odds will be just too low.

i do think some bombs could come out of the rest of the card, i've got a few i'm looking at.

I like Archipenko in the Duty Free at a price, Linngari also. I think Notional has a shot at running real big. Never thought I would say that. I also think the first three are fairly formful. But the Duty Free has a shot at a monster horse, and the race after I have given up on. In the 5th I will be boxing Notional, Archipenko, Creachadoir, and Linngari, and in the 6th I am boxing Sun Classique, Gravitas, Viva Pataca, and Doctor Dino. I might also use the far outside horse, Gower Song.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Scav

I like Archipenko in the Duty Free at a price, Linngari also. I think Notional has a shot at running real big. Never thought I would say that. I also think the first three are fairly formful. But the Duty Free has a shot at a monster horse, and the race after I have given up on. In the 5th I will be boxing Notional, Archipenko, Creachadoir, and Linngari, and in the 6th I am boxing Sun Classique, Gravitas, Viva Pataca, and Doctor Dino. I might also use the far outside horse, Gower Song.

I'm with you on Archipenko.
also give a look to the horse MMSC has been touting, Latency. last grass effort in Arg he carried 134 lbs and drew off by open lengths in a gr1 against 23 opponents. of course you do have to look past the nad al sheba dirt prep race, but maybe that was only for condition. not a strong chance I know, but the horse will be a huge price. that is a deep race.

[cmorioles]

For those interested, I posted my figures for the whole card as the Race of the Week on my site.

All foreign race figures are free Racing Post figures and converted to the Beyer scale using my own proprietary formula.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

For those interested, I posted my figures for the whole card as the Race of the Week on my site.

All foreign race figures are free Racing Post figures and converted to the Beyer scale using my own proprietary formula.

thanks, thats really helpful.

[tiggerv]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

For those interested, I posted my figures for the whole card as the Race of the Week on my site.

All foreign race figures are free Racing Post figures and converted to the Beyer scale using my own proprietary formula.

Very nice. Thanks

[TitanSooner]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

For those interested, I posted my figures for the whole card as the Race of the Week on my site.

All foreign race figures are free Racing Post figures and converted to the Beyer scale using my own proprietary formula.

Thanks CJ!