3/29 (GP): 57th Florida Derby (Gr. I)

[robfla]

Not too much mention of Hey Byrn. He appears to me in tip-top form, loves the track and don't underestimate his trainer who is 18% in Graded Stakes. His running style is perfect for a race like this, and having a jockey that isn't a "top name" he will be an overlay.

my tri:

9 /1,2,6,8/ all = $40
9 in the 2nd slot too.

Originally Posted by robfla

Not too much mention of Hey Byrn. He appears to me in tip-top form, loves the track and don't underestimate his trainer who is 18% in Graded Stakes. His running style is perfect for a race like this, and having a jockey that isn't a "top name" he will be an overlay.

my tri:

9 /1,2,6,8/ all = $40
9 in the 2nd slot too.

My only knock on him is he's lazy out of the gate. And with that post it's a recipe for disaster.

[King Glorious]

Big Brown to win over Fierce Wind with a side bet on the other Zito.

[ShadowRoll]

1,2 w/ 1,2,12 w/ 1,2,4,5,8,12 = $16

Question whether Smooth Air can get the distance, but like the price.

[miraja2]

After spending the last 30 or so minutes studying these PPs I must conclude that this is one of the best G1s I can remember in recent years (in terms of a betting race, not field quality). There are a lot of interesting colts here coming off of career best performances that could take the next step and win. You have a big unknown in the South American horse, and the colt with the best speed figures parked way out there in a difficult spot.
You could make a reasonable case for a lot of these horses.

This is a fun race to look at. I still haven't made up my mind on the best way to play it yet.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by miraja2

After spending the last 30 or so minutes studying these PPs I must conclude that this is one of the best G1s I can remember in recent years (in terms of a betting race, not field quality). There are a lot of interesting colts here coming off of career best performances that could take the next step and win. You have a big unknown in the South American horse, and the colt with the best speed figures parked way out there in a difficult spot.
You could make a reasonable case for a lot of these horses.

This is a fun race to look at. I still haven't made up my mind on the best way to play it yet.

Yeah, you can make a case to play or not play just about anybody. I rarely ever box but assuming no scratches I think I'm just going to box up Smooth Air, Fierce Wind, Tomcito, and Elysium Fields and hope for the best.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by ShadowRoll

1,2 w/ 1,2,12 w/ 1,2,4,5,8,12 = $16

Question whether Smooth Air can get the distance, but like the price.

I don't think there is any way we can begin know what the price will be at this point.
It will be very interesting to see what the board looks like for this race come post time. I'm not sure what the betting public will make of Tomcito's class and/or BB's post position.

[ShadowRoll]

Originally Posted by miraja2

I don't think there is any way we can begin know what the price will be at this point.
It will be very interesting to see what the board looks like for this race come post time. I'm not sure what the betting public will make of Tomcito's class and/or BB's post position.

Tomcito's gotten a little bit of hype, with comparisons to Cannonero II, so I'm guessing he gets bet down from his morning line with people looking for the proverbial dark horse. But Tomcito seems to be a sustained runner -- he came from pretty far back to win the Nacional -- and I don't think this race sets up for him if that's true.

BB's gotten more hype than maybe any horse on the trail this year. He'll be low odds no matter what. He is, after all, the best horse Desormeaux has ever ridden.

I think it's likely that Smooth Air is at least 10-1 given, as you say, the possibility that many of these horses could move forward here, and I'm hoping he gets lost in the crowd (betting-wise). But I think Stutts has him cranked up as far as he can go at this point, and I think he'll handle the early pace just fine with something left. A 10-1 horse on top of the tri will yield a decent payout.

Originally Posted by ShadowRoll

Tomcito's gotten a little bit of hype, with comparisons to Cannonero II, so I'm guessing he gets bet down from his morning line with people looking for the proverbial dark horse. But Tomcito seems to be a sustained runner -- he came from pretty far back to win the Nacional -- and I don't think this race sets up for him if that's true.

BB's gotten more hype than maybe any horse on the trail this year. He'll be low odds no matter what. He is, after all, the best horse Desormeaux has ever ridden.

I think it's likely that Smooth Air is at least 10-1 given, as you say, the possibility that many of these horses could move forward here, and I'm hoping he gets lost in the crowd (betting-wise). But I think Stutts has him cranked up as far as he can go at this point, and I think he'll handle the early pace just fine with something left. A 10-1 horse on top of the tri will yield a decent payout.

I think the early pace is the main concern for Smooth Air. If he's on or near the lead it could be lights out for the rest of the field. I don't think distance limitations matter that much on this course.