3/29 (GP): 57th Florida Derby (Gr. I)

[tiggerv]

Originally Posted by Scav

So if he wins, you like him to win the Derby? that is exact opposite that I said?

Misread what you said...so yes we think completely opposite.

Obviously it depends on how this race shakes out but if he wins here it would be to me the most impressive performance thus far in a season full of crap and slow horses and I wouldn't hesitate to bet him in the Derby.

That being said...I still think he has no chance whatsoever Saturday and will put my money where my mouth is this weekend.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by tiggerv

Misread what you said...so yes we think completely opposite.

Obviously it depends on how this race shakes out but if he wins here it would be to me the most impressive performance thus far in a season full of crap and slow horses and I wouldn't hesitate to bet him in the Derby.

That being said...I still think he has no chance whatsoever Saturday and will put my money where my mouth is this weekend.

He has to run absolutely huge this weekend to run in the KY Derby because time is running out. This is his race because they won't wheel him back next weekend, and I doubt they would wheel him back in the Bluegrass or Arkansas Derby. So he either gets in the top two this weekend to get to the Derby or adios.

Running that big will lead to a bounce, especially for a horse that has had his problems. Personally, while I am playing against him this weekend, I almost hope he runs out of his mind and runs absolutely huge so I will be able to take advantage of it while at the Derby, he won't be on ANY of my tickets Derby day, regardless....

[Bobby Fischer]

It all depends on Fierce Wind.
He has gate quickness and route speed and the ideal post. The next closest speed is gate7.

How much will BB Frank and Face The Cat fight him for the lead? How game will Fierce Wind be?

If Fierce Wind runs a strong effort, everyone else has to work very hard.

If Fierce Wind weakens, Elysium Fields or Big Brown can cruise up to even terms, and still have horse left.

[hockey2315]

What don't you like about Smooth Air, Scav?

[Scav]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

What don't you like about Smooth Air, Scav?

I just think there are better horses in the race. I don't think he gets the distance and he just isn't fast enough right now. Who did he really beat in the Hutcheson? I can't recall the trip he got but my guess it was a good one

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by Scav

I just think there are better horses in the race. I don't think he gets the distance and he just isn't fast enough right now. Who did he really beat in the Hutcheson? I can't recall the trip he got but my guess it was a good one

But doesn't he have a tactical advantage? With all those horses trapped outside he should work out a better trip than them. . . He might not have to be better than them. Also, his last race at GP was very impressive and I think he's better bred for the distance than people realize.

[lemoncrush]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

But doesn't he have a tactical advantage? With all those horses trapped outside he should work out a better trip than them. . . He might not have to be better than them. Also, his last race at GP was very impressive and I think he's better bred for the distance than people realize.

I was skeptical of Smooth Air too, at first. I don't think the distance will be an issue, especially breaking for the 2 post. His connections have obviously been pointing to this race, and his work pattern is pretty impressive.
2 straight breezes going a mile, followed by a 7F work, followed by a bullet
5F work on Tuesday. He looks as fit as can be, and has a legititimate shot to hit the board. If the track is wet, he moves up even more.