3/29 (GP): 57th Florida Derby (Gr. I)

[tiggerv]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Why is Affirmed, Seattle Slew, and a few of the others making a comeback for the race? Not like there are any world beaters in the race OR a large field. So, WHO CARES where he breaks from.

Unless Big Brown is the 2nd coming of Barbaro, he has no chance from that post.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by tiggerv

Unless Big Brown is the 2nd coming of Barbaro, he has no chance from that post.

Who exactly did Barbaro beat in that race? Those BEHIND him had distinguished careers.

I haven't looked the field over but I can't believe there's much in it. If BB is any kind of horse, and I'm not talking about a ***** NEED EVERYTHING ITS OWN WAY TYPE, like War Pass, then he sits comfortably outside and rolls.

As for all the rest of the concern: BB won't be a price. Why in the world would I be gearing up to bet this horse when there's so much OTHER VALUE, in OTHER races out there.

You guys take your STAR ENVY (or STAR wanna be envy) very seriously here.

[tiggerv]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Who exactly did Barbaro beat in that race? Those BEHIND him had distinguished careers.

I haven't looked the field over but I can't believe there's much in it. If BB is any kind of horse, and I'm not talking about a ***** NEED EVERYTHING ITS OWN WAY TYPE, like War Pass, then he sits comfortably outside and rolls.

As for all the rest of the concern: BB won't be a price. Why in the world would I be gearing up to bet this horse when there's so much OTHER VALUE, in OTHER races out there.

You guys take your STAR ENVY (or STAR wanna be envy) very seriously here.

Who in that race had a distinguished career? Sunriver? I don't have the PPs handy but I don't think there was much in that race and Barbaro ran his heart out to barely do it and he was from the 10th post. BB is drawing even worse.

I wasn't going to bet Big Brown before the draw and I certainly am not going to after. He could end up being the best horse in this field...although I doubt it...but he isn't winning.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Who behind Barbaro in the Florida Derby had a distinguished career?

As for meaningful data. I'm not sure what could be more meaningful than the fact that this is now the 4th meet with the renovated track and NO ONE has won from that post. No one, as in 0% winners from there. Couple that with the fact he'll be an overpriced favorite off a turf race against dogs and an off the turf race against more dogs. Boy, sounds like a horse I want to bet.

Exactly, Barbaro beat NOTHING. And BB might be in a similar situation.

Dig deeper. Give me stats with ODDS. Give me some names/races of horses losing from the outside post that actually had a shot to win the race. Even though it's over a 4 year period, I can't believe that there are many races, given the 1 or 2 carded each week.


I agree with the last part. If I'm waiting around to make a killing on BB and then feel skunked when he gets the outside post, I'm definitely in need of a method tuneup.