Denis of Cork's stock on the rise

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

Now Denis of Cork is being indirectly compared to Curlin and Barbaro.

This stuff is hilarious.

i'm not comparing the horse, whether directly or indirectly, what i was saying was that you can no longer use what happened 20, 30, 50 or 100 years ago to determine what a horse today can do.

i'm saying use or toss the horse based on the horse, not whether a horse 100 years ago was able to do the same thing.
no horse today runs like in the 'old days', so why should the old days rules still apply? they don't.

Originally Posted by Danzig

i'm not comparing the horse, whether directly or indirectly, what i was saying was that you can no longer use what happened 20, 30, 50 or 100 years ago to determine what a horse today can do.

i'm saying use or toss the horse based on the horse, not whether a horse 100 years ago was able to do the same thing.
no horse today runs like in the 'old days', so why should the old days rules still apply? they don't.

I think that's a bunch of horses.hit just because of what's transpired the past two years.

I'll toss Denis of Cork because he's slow, is skipping a prep, has a trainer who might as well be Jerry Brown, and his name makes me want to smash faces.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

I think that's a bunch of horses.hit just because of what's transpired the past two years.

I'll toss Denis of Cork because he's slow, is skipping a prep, has a trainer who might as well be Jerry Brown, and his name makes me want to smash faces.

i don't know that i'd use him either. as to whether it's horseshit, i guess it's in the nose of the beholder.

Originally Posted by Danzig

i don't know that i'd use him either. as to whether it's horseshit, i guess it's in the nose of the beholder.

A horse with races under his belt who has faced adversity will beat a sissy who has been babied for one specific race 10 out of 10 times if the talent is equal.

Denis of Cork is a horrendous bet for the derby. He seems to be the media darling and the bandwagon is bordering on ridiculous as of right now. I actually hope he wins the Wood so he'll end up the favorite the first saturday of May. He has no shot in a 20 horse race.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

A horse with races under his belt who has faced adversity will beat a sissy who has been babied for one specific race 10 out of 10 times if the talent is equal.

Denis of Cork is a horrendous bet for the derby. He seems to be the media darling and the bandwagon is bordering on ridiculous as of right now. I actually hope he wins the Wood so he'll end up the favorite the first saturday of May. He has no shot in a 20 horse race.

i thought there must be a problem when they suddenly changed their plans for last wknd...supposedly they feel he'll peak in two races, so they wanted just one more prep.
but then, you see so much 'trainer speak'. it can't be a good thing to change a plan you've had for months, no matter how it's spun.

no horse has really struck me as having much shot, not since war passes inexplicable loss. but hell, someone will win it. trick is figuring out who.


but as far as finding a horse who has faced a lot of adversity, and not been babied...not many fit that bill these days.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

Denis of Cork is a horrendous bet for the derby.

He's run three times - and really - where exactly is his good race?

All three of his wins have been moderate when you are talking about horses at that level - and even though this is a very low rated crop right now - Dennis Of Cork is unquestionably being overrated by some people.

I used the horse in the first round of that Road to the Roses thingy - but only because he was facing a moderate field in the Southwest - and was assured to get a fast pace to close into with Sacred Journey running.

Turf War (who is an absolute dog!) went off the post time favorite in his last race.

I'd take Big Brown before I'd take Dennis of Cork - if I had to choose between the the two - at least Big Brown has two genuinely excellent performances. Problem is, one came on turf at age 2, and the other came in a small field off-the-turf event.

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

I think Denis of Cork is the type that is getting good at the right time. He has a nice style of running for the Derby, and he is in my top five at this point. He is a beautiful moving horse, and he hasn't done anything wrong so far. IMO, distance isn't really a concern with him either when considering his dosage and pedigree. There is a lot to like about him. Plus, I love his sire. Since this crop is so "slow", I think he will do well.

It's too bad Richard Mandella's Harlan's Holiday, Into Mischief, won't make it to the Derby.

[Payson Dave]

Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay

I think Denis of Cork is the type that is getting good at the right time. He has a nice style of running for the Derby, and he is in my top five at this point. He is a beautiful moving horse, and he hasn't done anything wrong so far. IMO, distance isn't really a concern with him either when considering his dosage and pedigree. There is a lot to like about him. Plus, I love his sire. Since this crop is so "slow", I think he will do well.

It's too bad Richard Mandella's Harlan's Holiday, Into Mischief, won't make it to the Derby.

if only you really believed that

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

He's run three times - and really - where exactly is his good race?

All three of his wins have been moderate when you are talking about horses at that level - and even though this is a very low rated crop right now - Dennis Of Cork is unquestionably being overrated by some people.

I used the horse in the first round of that Road to the Roses thingy - but only because he was facing a moderate field in the Southwest - and was assured to get a fast pace to close into with Sacred Journey running.

Turf War (who is an absolute dog!) went off the post time favorite in his last race.

I'd take Big Brown before I'd take Dennis of Cork - if I had to choose between the the two - at least Big Brown has two genuinely excellent performances. Problem is, one came on turf at age 2, and the other came in a small field off-the-turf event.

Where's his good race? (Is that you Andy?) All of his races are good races as they each displayed certain excellent qualities. The wide rally from far back while debuting at the difficult 7f distance at CD.. The determined effort against a slow pace in the comebacker in his two turn debut on a sloppy surface he didn't care for at FG.. The professional, straightforward 'confront and continue' victory in the Southwest versus two next out stakes winners at OP.. By my count, that's three different racetracks with three different kinds of surfaces where Denis of Cork has done what has been required to win.

Addressing the fitness issue, you can rest assured that David Carroll will have this son of Harlan's Holiday, out of an Unbridled mare, ready for 9f April 5, and ready for 10f May 3. Carroll gets on this horse himself, and in his prime as an exercise rider (Easy Goer) was known to be as good as there was.

Those trying to go out of their way to dismiss this horse are passing on what may be one of the few genuine runners of quality out there. I don't like that Carroll has concerns about keeping weight on him, because that brings into question how durable he's going to be, but for now, if you're determined to say anything negative about this colt you're trying too hard.

[Danzig]

speaking of andy, wonder where he is...

i wonder tho, what would it mean if denis should happen to crush the field in the wood? Carroll is running him in only one prep, as he says that denis of corks races are showing he will peak in two starts.
i don't know yet who my favorite is for the derby, it's too soon-and some good horses falling by the wayside every day. but i think it's too soon to draw a line thru some of these. doesn't it mean something that the two he beat in arkansas came back to win a stakes next out?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Where's his good race? (Is that you Andy?) All of his races are good races as they each displayed certain excellent qualities. The wide rally from far back while debuting at the difficult 7f distance at CD.. The determined effort against a slow pace in the comebacker in his two turn debut on a sloppy surface he didn't care for at FG.. The professional, straightforward 'confront and continue' victory in the Southwest versus two next out stakes winners at OP.. By my count, that's three different racetracks with three different kinds of surfaces where Denis of Cork has done what has been required to win.

We are talking about a horse who I am consistantly seeing in the top 3 spots in these "top 10" lists - and we are talking about his chances of winning the Derby. Am I right?

If so,

He's run three times as you say. A pair of wins in his first two starts with Beyers of 83 and 82 ... yeah, the first one was his debut at 7f, and yeah he was really up against the race shape in his 2nd one - so I will give you that he was clearly a better horse than his mediocre figures. Thus, not a bad horse to really get behind because his form was tremendously likely to improve.

The Southwest Stakes is what stamped him as a VERY overrated Derby prospect right now.

Let's compare 2nd place finisher Sierra Sunset's trip with Dennis Of Cork.

* Sierra Sunset: Showed the ability to rate and relax when he let run-off speed Sacred Journey set a tremendously fast pace. But, he never really had a chance to relax and finish because he was virtually head-and-head with Lukas sprinter Silver Edition for the first six furlongs of the race! That is a very unlucky trip for a horse of SS's style!

* Dennis Of Cork: Was positioned well in mid-pack - 18 lengths of the insanely fast early pace after a half mile. A Very ideal setup to both run a winning race and run a ceiling type figure.

The horse who clearly ran the better race in the Rebel was Sierra Sunset.

Now, does that mean Sierra Sunset is who you want of the two at 10 furlongs? No!

Does it mean that Sierra Sunset couldn't lose the Rebel? No! Why? Becuase Sacred Journey was back in the race - and He's Eze was adding blinkers and a candidate to take Silver Edition's harrassing role. It had the look of deja vu.

Think like a hardened gambler and not someone who is a fan of a nice young horse - catching the wedding was getting Dennis Of Cork at 9/2 odds in the Southwest Stakes (the absurd Turf War and Riley Tucker were shorter prices!) - catching the funeral might be expecting Dennis Of Cork to make any significant improvement in a race against better horses where he doesn't get a great setup.

It basically seems like you think I'm being too much of a contrarian - but look at the 2007 Southwest Stakes.

I remember you having Hard Spun as your strong "#1" ranked Derby prospect and all - and after he was 4th in the Southwest Stakes, you basically let him sink to the bottom of your top 10.

The problem was, analytically speaking, Hard Spun ran an outstanding and extremely buried race in the Southwest. You basically downgraded him on the basis of his result and not his performance. I think you are making a similar (and very commonly made) mistake if you once again put too much emphasis on result and not enough on performance.