War Pass --DB ?

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Kasept

No one recalls Holy Bull being beaten 24 lengths in the Fountain of Youth? Afleet Alex' Rebel? Real Quiet's Golden Gate Derby? Obviously not because the same ridiculous comments that are sprinkled throughout this thread, and the laughable 'oh my gosh' thread, were said about those 3 year olds, Croll, Ritchey and Baffert at the time.

I also remember Afleet Alex going to his nose in the stretch of the Preakness, but he overcame that adversity.
why is it ridiculous to feel that this horse may not in the league with the horses that you've mentioned? I was under the impression that War Pass still had something to prove. Personally until I see a 2 turn route on a fast track against top competition, I hold a question mark in my mind. It seems that many have already made up their minds that he's untouchable.

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

I also remember Afleet Alex going to his nose in the stretch of the Preakness, but he overcame that adversity.
why is it ridiculous to feel that this horse may not in the league with the horses that you've mentioned? I was under the impression that War Pass still had something to prove. Personally until I see a 2 turn route on a fast track against top competition, I hold a question mark in my mind. It seems that many have already made up their minds that he's untouchable.

Exactly.

You lose by 20 lengths and don't beat a horse at 1-20, what do you expect?

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

I also remember Afleet Alex going to his nose in the stretch of the Preakness, but he overcame that adversity.
why is it ridiculous to feel that this horse may not in the league with the horses that you've mentioned? I was under the impression that War Pass still had something to prove. Personally until I see a 2 turn route on a fast track against top competition, I hold a question mark in my mind. It seems that many have already made up their minds that he's untouchable.

thing is, it's a no win situation. war pass won by a big margin in the juvie, it was the slop. he wins for fun, the competition is suspect. he doesn't overcome a variety of circumstances, and now he's no good. had he won yesterday, yesterdays group would have been viewed as 'soft', and let's just see what happens next time.

too many view this sport in black and white, when there are many shades of grey.

once more, maybe this horse isn't as fantastic as some thought, but i doubt he's as bad as others are now saying. but this whole crop is still a mystery, with the top of the heap being a horse who has lost to war pass more than once.
ah, but isn't it fun trying to figure it all out?!?!

[jms62]

Monmouth Park is a very speed favoring track. Add in the Slop which also favors front end speed especially Juves not used to getting mud in there face. He won by a diminishing margin each of his route starts vs Pyro (Pyro cutting into lead). He needed to be challanged on the front end, he was and basically he either is not 100 % or he quit, neither a good place to be this close to the derby. Also, the Juvenile jinx, do you really thing that we go 20 odd years before the Juve winner takes the derby and it happens twice in a row. IMHO this years derby will be a Great betting race.

[cmorioles]

It is one thing to be challenged and fold. It is quite another to never look interested. Something definitely seemed amiss here.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by jms62

Monmouth Park is a very speed favoring track. Add in the Slop which also favors front end speed especially Juves not used to getting mud in there face. He won by a diminishing margin each of his route starts vs Pyro (Pyro cutting into lead). He needed to be challanged on the front end, he was and basically he either is not 100 % or he quit, neither a good place to be this close to the derby. Also, the Juvenile jinx, do you really thing that we go 20 odd years before the Juve winner takes the derby and it happens twice in a row. IMHO this years derby will be a Great betting race.

Runaway slop beyers are deceiving, what did E Dubai get at Belmont if anyone remembers? A 113+ if my memory is correct, take that race out and what are we left with in his route resume, don't forget those routes are 1 turn Belmont efforts, Johanessburg ran huge at Belmont also but never was quite a 2 turn horse. WP is a good horse and it is no fault of his he was hyped, but perhaps the blinders were put on when assessing him here. Everyone loves a brilliant undefeated 2 yr old heading into his derby yr!

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by CSC

Runaway slop beyers are deceiving, what did E Dubai get at Belmont if anyone remembers? A 113+ if my memory is correct, take that race out and what are we left with in his route resume

A second place finish in the Travers and a win in the Suburban Handicap with figures at or above his slop win?

E Dubai was 1-for-4 on off tracks and 3-for-6 on fast tracks.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

A second place finish in the Travers and a win in the Suburban Handicap with figures at or above his slop win?

E Dubai was 1-for-4 on off tracks and 3-for-6 on fast tracks.

I’ll take your word on that as I don’t have the past performances to revisit, but I do remember he finished a very close second in the Super Derby in the slop. In the Brooklyn he was coming off a very long layoff, off the top of my head I think it was a 6 month to a year layoff. What I am saying is in the The Dywer he set very fast fractions in the slop and won with ease, I think the final time was 1:40 and change and at the time that number dwarfed his previous numbers.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

If there is a horse without question marks - it's obviously Pyro.

He was always a very straight-forward read and you know he is going to fire on Derby day.

He has big 2yo figures on the go-back, but they came in losing efforts. He has all clear-cut winning efforts this year, but they came without big figures. He overcame a horrible setup in his return win. He put himself much closer to the pace most recently and won from just a few lengths off of the pace.

A horse like War Pass put together four straight big bullet works in September prior to his 9/2 Champagne win where he opened up 5 in the blink of an eye.

While War Pass looked like the kind of horse who was trained to peak for the Champagne and give Zito his 5th win in the race in 11 years - Pyro has always been handled the way one would train a slow developing horse who is meant to peak later on.

Pyro is so overbet in the futures because he sticks out like a sore thumb as the obvious horse who can be trusted to fire a good race. There is no rational knock against him.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Pyro is so overbet in the futures because he sticks out like a sore thumb as the obvious horse who can be trusted to fire a good race. There is no rational knock against him.

In a normal year, I'd argue he has never run particularly fast (I don't buy the Juvy Beyer for a second) and has beat nothing but tomato cans this year, but there just aren't any horses running fast races right now. He looks as good or better than any other horse.

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

The Cali horses are running exceptionally well, but everyone still continues to ignore them because they are getting low Beyers and the synthetic surface.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay

The Cali horses are running exceptionally well, but everyone still continues to ignore them because they are getting low Beyers and the synthetic surface.

If these SoCal races were run on turf, would you still feel the same about their chances on dirt? It is basically the same thing.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay

The Cali horses are running exceptionally well, but everyone still continues to ignore them because they are getting low Beyers and the synthetic surface.

5 of the 7 fastest Beyer figures run by a 3-year-old male this year have been run at Santa Anita - and 6 of the 8 fastest since Christmas have been run there.

The synthetic surface issue is the reason why many bettors don't trust them.

Pyro has run Beyers of just 90 and 95 this year - the similar styled Giacomo ran Beyers of 98, 93, and 95 in his three Derby preps, all with trips or poor setups, and he was 50/1

[cmorioles]

Giacomo, one of the luckiest Derby winners in history, would look really strong this year.

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

5 of the 7 fastest Beyer figures run by a 3-year-old male this year have been run at Santa Anita - and 6 of the 8 fastest since Christmas have been run there.

The synthetic surface issue is the reason why many bettors don't trust them.

Pyro has run Beyers of just 90 and 95 this year - the similar styled Giacomo ran Beyers of 98, 93, and 95 in his three Derby preps, all with trips or poor setups, and he was 50/1

The high Beyers were sprinting...

Pyro's Beyers are misleading because of the way the races set up...

He is better than what they show.

Colonel John and El Gato Malo are much better than their 86 and 85 Beyer last out... Again, pace scenario.

Oh well, I hope everyone tosses these horses with dirt breeding out just because they have been winning on synthetic.

Giacomo won the Derby because he loved Churchill Downs, and Afleet Alex didn't run his race.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay

The Cali horses are running exceptionally well, but everyone still continues to ignore them because they are getting low Beyers and the synthetic surface.

Cali horses were getting smoked when moving to dirt. Yesterdays win by Sierra Sunset gives at least me to say hmmm, maybe something is brewing out West. Georgie Boy also had a very nice effort... Maybe one sneaks in and we get Giacomo numbers... I think the low Beyers may be attributed to how races are now run on the Synthetic. It is more like a Turf race with no one wanting the lead until it is time to break for home.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

You know what it looks like when a Derby winner doesn't like a track? Look at the races Street Sense ran over synthetic.They can't quite get it done.They don't run f'n last.I don't think this is a case of load him up, and try again another day.

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

No one said their talent levels are the same. Holy Bull, Alex, Real Quiet were examples of huge favorites that didn't run a step in a certain prep race only to be vindicated later. That's the point. For whatever talk War Pass has gotten, show me a fan of his that didn't and still doesn't think he has question marks. All that was said before and can really still be said is that he was the fastest 2 year old and a pretty good horse. Who thinks he's untouchable? At this point they all have question marks, right?

Yes