Remember This Statement By Crist

[zippyneedsawin]

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

Why you do that to me Zippy? Dat was ruthless.

I thought that would make you feel better. Do you feel insulted because you have a similar opinion as Haskins?

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by zippyneedsawin

I thought that would make you feel better. Do you feel insulted because you have a similar opinion as Haskins?

No,but now all the sudden the horse goes from "he stinks" to "got as much chance as Charasmatic or War Emblem."


Anyways,how is it Haskins says the horse shouldn't be overlooked,and Crist says the horse isn't a legit derby contender? I think Crist is so interested in trying to come up with negatives for Pyro that he just got sloppy.It seems like these guys are so biased against horses who win on synthetic that they make some asinine assumptions that those horses can't run on dirt.He can run on dirt.He doesn't like it in his face,but he was full of run on the backstretch.He wouldn't let him run.That's what these geniuses are missing on the video.He keeps holding back a loaded gun,and expecting to get his perfect trip inside to outside.He didn't get it.Horses don't spread out at the top of the stretch(like at Anita.)So,he gets the horse stuck behind Pyro and a wall of others(and takes dirt in his face most of the stretch.)I don't know how that's a ride.These people don't expect much from jocks. They are very tolerant of timid weak rides,and all I can say is there is no way in hell Bejarano doesn't get a top 2 with Bravo in the Louisiana Derby...THIS IDIOT COST HIM A 2ND.It was just a weak feminine ride by Solis.The guy is 43 going on 60.If he doesn't have by far the best horse,then good luck.The reason he has done well the last 3 or 4 weeks at Anita is because he is lazy n' timid,and the track has played very well for that style of riding.

[Cannon Shell]

Yankee Bravo is currently listed at 6-1 in the Crown Royal American Turf future book at cannonshell.com. He is at 3-1 for the Derby in the "all other horses" category for the KY Derby. John Lackey is listed at an interesting 15-1 for 2008 Cy Young. Steve garvey is pegged at 1000000 to 1 for 2009 Hall of Fame induction.

[Linny]

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

No,but now all the sudden the horse goes from "he stinks" to "got as much chance as Charasmatic or War Emblem."


Anyways,how is it Haskins says the horse shouldn't be overlooked,and Crist says the horse isn't a legit derby contender? I think Crist is so interested in trying to come up with negatives for Pyro that he just got sloppy.It seems like these guys are so biased against horses who win on synthetic that they make some asinine assumptions that those horses can't run on dirt.He can run on dirt.He doesn't like it in his face,but he was full of run on the backstretch.He wouldn't let him run.That's what these geniuses are missing on the video.He keeps holding back a loaded gun,and expecting to get his perfect trip inside to outside.He didn't get it.Horses don't spread out at the top of the stretch(like at Anita.)So,he gets the horse stuck behind Pyro and a wall of others(and takes dirt in his face most of the stretch.)I don't know how that's a ride.These people don't expect much from jocks. They are very tolerant of timid weak rides,and all I can say is there is no way in hell Bejarano doesn't get a top 2 with Bravo in the Louisiana Derby...THIS IDIOT COST HIM A 2ND.It was just a weak feminine ride by Solis.The guy is 43 going on 60.If he doesn't have by far the best horse,then good luck.The reason he has done well the last 3 or 4 weeks at Anita is because he is lazy n' timid,and the track has played very well for that style of riding.

First, it's Haskin, not Haskins. (Sorry it's pet peeve of mine.) As to Crist and Haskin not seeing eye to eye on Yankee Bravo that is the name of the game. Betting on all racing would be pretty boring with out the difference of opinion. I don't see Crist as misleading anyone. He's writing his opinion of the colt, as is Haskin. (Of cours, I've rarely seen Haskin make any negative comments, so take tht with a grain of salt.) If Haskin still likes Bravo on Derby Day, I hope he gets his price.
I disagree that YB was "stuck" behind Pyro. He was behind Pyro but he couldn't keep up when Pyro went between horses. I don't watch Cali as much as I should so I wont speak to Solis' "typical" ride but I do agree that he should have been second here.

[SentToStud]

I'd much rather latch onto a horse like YB at a big number than stick with conventional wisdom horses like Pyro or War Pass, both of which have knocks. War Pass has trip/distance questions to answer and Pyro is likely going to be in what will seem to him like a whole different world when he sees the pace the Derby is likely to have.

Carry on, Scuds.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by SentToStud

I'd much rather latch onto a horse like YB at a big number than stick with conventional wisdom horses like Pyro or War Pass, both of which have knocks. War Pass has trip/distance questions to answer and Pyro is likely going to be in what will seem to him like a whole different world when he sees the pace the Derby is likely to have.

Carry on, Scuds.

While obviously anyone that has made a definitive opinion two months before any race is out of his ( or her ) mind, I do always love the " I would much rather take a hopeless longshot than a defendable favorite " approach.

That's the attack of many public handicappers that don't actually bet their money....and the attack of many people that lose at the racetrack. Carry on Once Young.

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

While obviously anyone that has made a definitive opinion two months before any race is out of his ( or her ) mind, I do always love the " I would much rather take a hopeless longshot than a defendable favorite " approach.

That's the attack of many public handicappers that don't actually bet their money....and the attack of many people that lose at the racetrack. Carry on Once Young.

I won't be betting anything short. Never do. And I'm not sure all the public handicappers wager all that much. Why would they if it's just another race to them. But it's their money so good luck to them whether they're betting $2 or $2,000. Thanks for the insight. I'll take it in the spirit it was offered.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by SentToStud

I'd much rather latch onto a horse like YB at a big number than stick with conventional wisdom horses like Pyro or War Pass, both of which have knocks. War Pass has trip/distance questions to answer and Pyro is likely going to be in what will seem to him like a whole different world when he sees the pace the Derby is likely to have.

I don't really get how you can use that as a big knock on Pyro in the same thought where you basically say Yankee Bravo is a viable horse at 40/1.

Pyro raced in 4th place, almost in the range of a stalking position in the La Derby.

YB, on the other hand, trailed the field in last and showed markedly less early speed than Pyro.

In fact, Yankee Bravo has run three times in America, on three different surfaces, and each time he trailed the field in last place early on. He's a much bigger danger to being outpaced than a horse like Pyro, who owns a triple digit figure at a one-turn mile distance.

Make no mistake - Pyro was just plain awful in the La Derby and I downgraded his chances. The 2nd place finisher in that race was two races removed from a workmanlike maiden claiming win with a 79 figure - and Proud Spell ran a few lengths faster in a race at the same distance with a very similar pace 30 minutes earlier.

If there aren't more viable horses than Yankee Bravo in the 40/1 range - maybe the four or five hyped horses right now are the ones you want.

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I don't really get how you can use that as a big knock on Pyro in the same thought where you basically say Yankee Bravo is a viable horse at 40/1.

Pyro raced in 4th place, almost in the range of a stalking position in the La Derby.

YB, on the other hand, trailed the field in last and showed markedly less early speed than Pyro.

In fact, Yankee Bravo has run three times in America, on three different surfaces, and each time he trailed the field in last place early on. He's a much bigger danger to being outpaced than a horse like Pyro, who owns a triple digit figure at a one-turn mile distance.

Make no mistake - Pyro was just plain awful in the La Derby and I downgraded his chances. The 2nd place finisher in that race was two races removed from a workmanlike maiden claiming win with a 79 figure - and Proud Spell ran a few lengths faster in a race at the same distance with a very similar pace 30 minutes earlier.

If there aren't more viable horses than Yankee Bravo in the 40/1 range - maybe the four or five hyped horses right now are the ones you want.

I can use lack of early speed against Pyro as a knock vs same re YB speifically, as you mentioned, because Pyro is 7/2 and YB is 40/1 (or whatever). That's overlooking the obvious fact that it was YB's first race on dirt and he's certainly at least as likely as Pyro to move forward. I don't think it would have been possible for Pyro to have gotten a better trip/set up laying off Charlie and JbK. Given that Charlie lasted for 2nd and that YB wound up within 3-4 lengths of Pyro in his first dirt race, it's certainly not inconcievable YB can gain those 3 or 4 over the next eight weeks and his next race.

You're right they both are pace challenged. The difference is one is the Derby favorite now and the other could go off 40-1. If you go with the hyped horses, good luck. If you're correct on your key or press, you can find a very nice exacta. But if I bet the race, I'll play something long in all the slots in the tri/super with several others. Sometimes it works for me as it did with Steppenwolfer. Sometimes it doesn't like last year when I used Kaplan's horse Sedgefield.

As an aside, I'm going to be spending a bit more time this year looking at the California horses. These guys out there aren't fools and it's pretty likely they are going to do better this year than last year, the first year of poly-preps.

More important, how would I have done with the pg85 prop bet?

[SCUDSBROTHER]

How does a thread about a horse who "stinks," (and isn't a legit derby contender) have this much interest?